Asdrubal Cabrera Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Patrick Corbin’s velocity was down last year and led to his worst season since prior to breaking out in Arizona. In his first start, he struck out five of 21 Dodgers with a 12.5 SwStr%, but also walked three with only one fewer Barrel (three) than ground balls (four). And his velocity sat exactly what it was last year (90.4 mph). This is likely to remain an issue. The Arizona lineup projects to lean extremely right-handed. Batters from that side have a .319 wOBA/.332 xwOBA against Corbin since 2019. Shorten the sample to 2020 on and it’s a .376 wOBA with a .197 ISO. Four of the RHBs (Eduardo Escobar, Asdrubal Cabrera, Carson Kelly and Nick Ahmed) are above a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO against LHP since 2019. The recommendation would be to stack right-handed Diamondbacks. While players are likely to sprinkle in a little bit of everything on such a small slate, Arizona bats could go under-owned due to Corbin’s pre-2020 reputation. They’re only implied for three and a half runs. We may want to be over-weight on them tonight in GPPs.

Ironically, with similarly expected conditions to Yankee Stadium tonight (temperatures in the mid-60s and negligible wind effects), Weather Edge is showing a run and power decline in such games, which makes quite a bit more sense. Overall, this park has been a positive run environment, though not as much of a power haven as Yankee Stadium.

Dakota Hudson is the low man on the pitching pole today. His 18 K% is more than 10 points below any other pitcher today with a 5.08 SIERA that’s the only mark above four and a .335 xwOBA that’s more than 30 points higher than anyone else. What he does do is keep the ball on the ground for the most part (56.9%) with that mark jumping to 63.9% against RHBs, who had a .285 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against him this year. It makes one wonder if either Asdrubal Cabrera (99 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) or Matt Adams (89 wRC+, .138 ISO) could see the field over Howie Kendrick (136 wRC+, .221 ISO) or Ryan Zimmerman (65 wRC+, .148 ISO) tonight, as LHBs had a .347 wOBA (.369 xwOBA) with a 49.6 GB% against Hudson, but why fix what’s not broken? Juan Soto (155 wRC+, .303 ISO) may be the top overall bat on the slate. Adam Eaton (108 wRC+, .152 ISO) may be your top value. The Nationals top the board with 4.23 implied runs.

On the brink of elimination, a lineup shuffle for the Cardinals in game three had no effect, and there’s probably not much more they could do in game four either. With a 3-0 series lead, Patrick Corbin likely has the longest leash tonight and costs less than $10K on either site. His 28.5 K%, 3.88 SIERA, 3.09 DRA and .303 xwOBA hardly stand out on a four man board that includes Gerrit Cole or even his own rotation, though he was likely one of the top 10 pitchers in the National League. Corbin did have that awful relief outing against the Dodgers, but still struck out 14 of the 41 he faced in the series. Corbin does have the highest aEV (88.9 mph) and Barrels/BBE (9.4%) on the board, so it’s the strikeout rate that really gives him value and it does make some middle of the order St Louis bats interesting here. Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+), Marcell Ozuna (92 wRC+), Jose Martinez (160 wRC+) and Tommy Edman (151 wRC+) all exceeded a .260 ISO vs LHP this year, while Yadier Molina (130 wRC+, .147 ISO) had a .382 xwOBA with the platoon advantage, but has the disadvantage of having the speed of a 37 year-old catcher.

Zach Plesac has been regressing with at least four runs in four of his last six starts, but still has a 3.82 ERA (.248 BABIP, 79 LOB%) that’s well below all of his estimators, which are above five and confirmed by a .352 xwOBA. The interesting thing here is that Plesac has shown a substantial platoon split this year (RHBs .336 wOBA, LHBs .288). However, Statcast suggests there’s really no split at all and Plesac should be far worse against LHBs (.347 xwOBA), while also worse against RHBs (.355). Players should feel comfortable firing up the majority of the Washington lineup (5.13 implied runs). Trea Turner (119 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP), Anthony Rendon (154 wRC+, .273 ISO) and Juan Soto (157 wRC+, .305 ISO) are your top bats, Turner and Asdrubal Cabrera (97 wRC+, .193 ISO) are swinging the hottest bats in the projected lineup, both above a 200 wRC+ and 50% hard hit rate over the last week.

Mike Soroka has been regressing with a 4.11 ERA over the last in line with his season SIERA, but he’s also been a bit worse. Strikeouts are down (under 20% for the season now), his ground ball rate has been below 48% in seven of his last nine starts (still 52.4% on the year) and he has a .363 xwOBA over the last 30 days (61 points higher than actual results) with 37.9% 95+ mph EV now. He’s allowed five HRs over his last two starts and faces Washington for a second straight outing. The only thing that’s remained consistent is his excellent control (5.6 BB%). For the season, RHBs have been grounded by Soroka (.234 wOBA, .273 xwOBA, 57.1 GB%), but LHBs have had some success (.321 wOBA, .345 xwOBA, 46.9 GB%). The Nationals have a 4.48 implied run line that sits in the middle of the board, but there seems to be some contrarian upside in attacking Soroka with quality LHBs at this point. This makes Adam Eaton (112 wRC+, .159 ISO vs RHP) a solid value at the top of the lineup and Juan Soto (162 wRC+, 324 ISO) just a great overall choice. Asdrubal Cabrera (96 wRC+, .199 ISO) and Matt Adams (91 wRC+, .250 ISO) would be additional reasonably priced options with decent lineup spots.

Blake Snell started off the season incredibly well, but has really fallen apart over the past 30 days with an 11.94 ERA, 4.75 xFIP, 5.00 SIERA, and 10.8% K-BB. Over that time frame Snell has seen his dominant curveball collect a pitch value of -3.9; the pitch was worth a pitch value of 13.2 last year. His changeup has also gone downhill recently with a -3.9 value after it earned a 7.2 mark in 2018. Looking at his Statcast data, his curveball had a spin rate of 2517 RPM in 2018 and has averaged 2487 RPM so far in 2019, though over the past month that number has fallen to 2359. Snell’s offspeed pitches (curve, change, slider) over the past month have been ineffective as he’s allowed a .332 xwOBA when using them. He’s also given up a .358 xwOBA with his fastball over that time. Especially with Snell expected to see high ownership today, Rangers bats make for an interesting leverage stack with Snell clearly trying to regain his feel in the mound. Joey Gallo (.398 xwOBA vs. LHP), Asdrubal Cabrera (.331), Willie Calhoun (.329), Ronald Guzman (.324), Elvis Andrus (.312) and Danny Santana (.306) are all options if you’re looking to get contrarian. Delino Deshields (.276) has struggled vs. LHP this year but has a decent .310 career wOBA vs. LHP and will lead off at just $3.9k on Draftkings. Gallo has been their hottest bat with a .411 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Danny Santana at .394.