Asher Wojciechowski Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Asher Wojciechowski has some value when he was missing bats earlier in the season, but that’s no longer the case. Combine that with a 29.4 GB% and there’s bound to be some damage even without a high aEV (10.9% Barrels/BBE). The Red Sox have the highest implied run line outside Coors or Texas tonight (6.36) and are starting the majority of their regulars tonight with Mookie Betts (142 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP) and Rafael Devers (153 wRC+, .281 ISO). The absence of J.D. Martinez pushes Mitch Moreland (126 wRC+, .291 ISO), who has the top ISO vs RHP in this lineup and still costs less than $3K on FanDuel, into the cleanup spot. LHBs have a .382 wOBA (.361 xwOBA) against Wojciechowksi this year. Jackie Bradley Jr. (101 wRC+, .234 ISO) has had an under-rated season and moves a few spots up the order as well.

The magic is gone for Asher Wojciechowski. After striking out at least six in each of his first five starts, he’s generated a total of 21 over his last five, good for just an 18.4 K% (8.4 SwStr%) this month. Unfortunately, the hard air contact remains consistent. His 13.5% Barrels/BBE (26.4 GB%) easily towers over the slate (Ross Detwiler 10.8% is next highest), resulting in a .355 xwOBA over the last month and an ERA with estimators all above six. Nine balls have left the yard in these five starts. While it’s nice getting out of Baltimore, Washington isn’t really much of an upgrade in terms of run environment for Asher. A 6.39 implied run line gives the Nationals the second best mark on the board and tops outside Coors. This is a well-disciplined offense with a 5.7 K-BB% over the last seven days. LHBs have a particular advantage against Wojciechowksi (.376 wOBA, .367 xwOBA last calendar year), though RHBs should be fine too (.302 wOBA, .314 xwOBA, 22.1 GB%). Juan Soto (157 wRC+, .294 ISO last calendar year) is one of the top bats outside Coors on the entire slate. Anthony Rendon (164 wRC+, .283 ISO) has a 213 wRC+ over the last week. Each of the first four batters in the projected lineup (Turner, Eaton, Rendon, Soto) are above a 115 wRC+ against RHP over the last 12 months.

Boy, those strikeouts sure disappeared on Asher Wojciechowksi in a hurry. He had at least six strikeouts with a total of eight walks through his first five starts, but has not exceeded five in any of his last four starts with exactly three walks in each. The one thing that has remained a constant is the hard contact though. He’s allowed a HR in eight of his nine starts overall and seven over this last four outings. In fairness, he has faced the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros in his last three starts, but while the Rays aren’t in that class, it’s still another formidable offense in a power friendly park. If Asher is only going to miss bats at a league average rate with a 24.4 GB%, there are going to be problems in this park. His 14.5% Barrels/BBE is highest on the board by a significant margin. LHBs have a .368 wOBA and .372 xwOBA against him this season. Austin Meadows (136 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Ji-Man Choi (128 wRC+, .195 ISO) should be strong plays in the top half of this lineup. Kevin Kiermaier (98 wRC+, .242 ISO) could be another name to look at depending on where he appears in the lineup. The Rays are a top three offense tonight at 5.96 implied runs.

If you perhaps thought that the mighty exploits of the no name Yankees from earlier this season was due to regress, it might seem a reasonable assumption. But so far, it would also be wrong. With the majority of their normal starting lineup back on the IL, the Yankees are featuring lineups with Mike Ford, Brett Gardner, Austin Romine and Mike Tauchman somewhere in the middle...and all of them homered last night. Gardner and Tauchman “slapped” HRs the opposite way, while the Yankees have now hit in excess of 30 HRs at Camden this year. Part ball, part environment, part weather, why wouldn’t we expect this to continue on Tuesday night against Asher Wojciechowski. Though he’s struck out 29.6% of batters faced through six starts, he’s also allowed seven HRs with a 26.4 GB% and 12.6% Barrels/BBE. The latter the highest mark on the board tonight among those with at least one start. Wojciechowski has dominated RHBs (.248 wOBA, .281 xwOBA), but struggled with LHBs (.361 wOBA, .346 xwOBA), but do to the extreme fly ball rate, the seven HRs have been fairly evenly split. The Yankees are one of three teams above six implied runs (6.18) and less than a tenth of a run off the top spot tonight. While Didi Gregorius is the top LH bat in this lineup (126 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Brett Gardner has become somewhat of a power hitter in this juiced ball environment as well (111 wRC+, .224 ISO). In fact, he and Tauchman (117 wRC+, .252 ISO) are the hottest bats in this lineup, both exceeding a 220 wRC+ and 45 Hard% over the last week. If either sees themselves bumped up towards the top or middle of the lineup tonight, they’re both within $100 of $3K on FanDuel. Mike Ford (71 wRC+, .118 ISO) also homered last night to add to his 23 with a 149 wRC+ at AAA this year.

Asher Wojciechowski has a stunning 31.1 K% across five starts with just a 6.7 BB% for a 24.4 K-BB% that he’s never come close to in the minors. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed just two runs in 14.1 innings with 16 strikeouts against quality, contact prone offenses in the Red Sox and Angels. He’s struck out at least six in each of his starts, while a 30.6 Z-O-Swing% is best on the board. There has been a bit of a problem when he’s allowed contact (12.5% Barrels/BBE, 43.1% 95+ mph EV, 29.2 GB%), which still only works out to a .287 xwOBA with such elite peripherals, but those are going to remain necessary unless he finds a way to manage contact in a better way. The Blue Jays have been hitting the ball well (126 wRC+, 21.9 HR/FB last seven days), but have just an 87 wRC+ with a 24.3 K% on the year vs RHP. What this means, is that Wojciechowski is potentially one of the top values on a short board, especially for just $7.1K on DraftKings. Whether sustainable or not, we generally don’t see a 30% strikeout rate in that price range. However, LHBs do own a .384 wOBA/.357 xwOBA against him this season. There’s certainly some merit towards looking at Cavan Biggio (113 wRC+, .246 ISO, 51.3 Hard% vs RHP) and Justin Smoak (129 wRC+, .261 ISO, 47.6 Hard% vs RHP last calendar year), each at a reasonable cost of $4.2K on DraftKings and above $1K less on FanDuel in a power friendly environment. Further in Wojciechowski’s favor is some reverse line movement towards Baltimore in this game.

Asher Wojciechowski only has 5 innings pitched this year, but over 84 innings pitched in the Majors he’s allowed a 6.64 ERA, 4.87 xFIP and 4.25 SIERA with a 15.2% K-BB and 1.82 HR/9 thanks in part to a 50% FB rate. Projection systems have him pegged as a 6+ ERA pitcher going forward. Not usually a high-powered offense, the Blue Jays have a whopping 6.14 implied total for this great matchup at home in the Rogers Centre. Justin Smoak (.428 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Cavan Biggio (.378), Lourdes Gurriel (.346), Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.339), Eric Sogard (.321), Danny Jansen (.320), and Brandon Drury (.317) are all solid options in their projected lineup. With the exception of Gurriel ($5.5k on Draftkings) all Toronto bats will be priced at $4.7k or less on DK. Vlad Guerrero Jr. is just $3.8k and is projected to bat 2nd, Biggio is $4.7k projected to hit 4th, Jansen is just $3.8k projected 5th, Smoak is $4.1k projected 6th and Drury is $3.4k projected 7th. Jansen has been their hottest hitter with a scorching .486 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Gurriel with a .402 xwOBA. There are some great cash plays in this lineup and some GPP appeal as well.

Most times it's nice when high strikeout pitchers match up with weak contact generators, but sometimes players may not want to use a pitcher (bad peripherals) in their daily fantasy lineup and don't want to attack him either (strong contact management). On the other end of the spectrum, there are pitchers who can be of benefit with a high strikeout rate, but are also worth hunting HRs against. There are cases of each on tonight's slate. Chris Flexen has an atrocious -1.9 K-BB% and batters from either side have a wOBA above .380 against him. However, his 83.3 mph aEV is the lowest on the slight with LHBs having just a 27.3 Hard% through five starts (22 IP). Similarly, Andrew Cashner has a pathetic 2.6 K-BB%, but his 3.4% Barrels/BBE is second lowest on the board and he has a 50% ground ball rate. Perhaps players might need to consider refraining from assaulting him with every left-handed batter in the lineup, a successful tactic in previous years. Jhoulys Chacin doesn't miss a lot of bats, but has the lowest percentage of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity on the board (27.8). However, players can still consider attacking him with LHBs (.344 wOBA, 34 Hard%), except that Matt Carpenter is out of the lineup tonight. Trevor Williams has just a 17.5 K% and 4.71 ERA that nearly matches his 4.60 SIERA, but his 28.7% 95+ mph EV is third lowest on the board. On the other side of the spectrum, Ian Kennedy's 89.5 mph aEV and 10.7% Barrels/BBE are highest on the slate, but he pitches in a big park against an offense that doesn't have a lot of success away from Coors. Jordan Zimmermann's 89 mph aEV is second highest. He's has allowed 26 HRs, but just four over his last seven starts despite allowing 14 runs over his last 8.2 innings. In those seven starts since the break, he has a 30.6 GB% with a hard hit rate above 40% in five of them. An example of a pitcher with the potential for strikeouts, who is also a high HR risk is Asher Wojciechowki, who has a 24.8 K%, but has allowed a HR every 17.8 batters faced this year. Andrew Heaney generated 12 swinging strikes in 82 pitches in his season debut. He also generated a bomb every 20.5 pitches. Mike Fiers has a 22.8 K% this season. He’s now allowed 30 HRs on the season, 12 over his last eight starts, and multiple bombs in four straight. James Shields has a 24.6 K% over the last month, but has allowed 19 HRs over 14 starts, in case there was any extra incentive needed to attack him. Ervin Santana costs more than $8.5K on either site, despite allowing 24 HRs over his last 20 starts, 14 of them to RHBs. Rich Hill's 84.2 mph aEV is the second lowest on the board. However, it's still a good thing for backers that he's pitching in a park that punishes RH power tonight because six of his 13 HRs this year over his last four starts over which he has a 42.9 Hard% and just a 35.2 GB% with his walk rate hitting 10%. His 28.4 K% has been unfazed by the rest of these shenanigans though.

There are three pitchers who exceed a 25 K% tonight. One (Asher Wojciechowski 25.3 K%) has just six starts and over one-third of his innings out of the bullpen. Another (Jose Quintana 25.4 K%) has just an 8.5 SwStr% and has a 25.7 Hard-Soft% since the All-Star break and six HRs allowed over his last four starts. He's still tonight's top projected pitcher via the RotoGrinders Player Projections, but costs $11.6K on DraftKings ($3.2K less on FanDuel). The other (Zack Greinke 28.1 K%) has allowed nine ERs and three HRs over his last 12.2 innings and only hosts the Houston Astros (129 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP this year) in Arizona. Greinke has, at least, struck out at 25 of his last 78 batters and is the only pitcher the Daily K Predictor projects above six strikeouts (6.56). Another potential top pitcher (Michael Fulmer) returns from a two week DL stint with an elbow issue to face the heat in Texas, where the the Rangers have a 17 HR/FB at home and vs RHP. The pitching options are far from ideal on tonight's slate, but the daily fantasy sites still mandate that players must select at least or even even two, so the cards that have been dealt will have to be played. There are a few pitchers who are at least in interesting spots tonight. The Padres strike out in a quarter of PAs at home and vs RHP. Jerad Eickhoff is a fairly average arm (20.5 K%, 4.45 ERA, 4.65 SIERA), but average in a great spot may be as good as gold tonight. Jackob Junis has just a 19.1 K% and 4.71 ERA (4.78 SIERA) in 44 innings this season. However, he is coming off the best start of his career (8 IP - 1 ER - 0 BB - 7 K) and has struck out 30% of AAA batters in 71 innings this season. The A's have struck out in a quarter of PAs at home and vs RHP as well. The Rays have an absurd 37.6 K% over the last week, which could make anybody playable, though maybe still not Nick Tepesch. Something nobody could have seen coming two months ago though, Kevin Gausman has a 29.8 K% over his last 11 starts. He has still allowed nine HRs over that span and four runs or more four times, but one run or less six times over that span and is one of the few pitchers who can combine that kind of upside with a favorable park in Seattle tonight.