Austin Gomber Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Austin Gomber scratched Monday. Anthony Molina will start.

There’s a good chance many players won’t want to pay up for tonight’s top pitchers, so who are some of the other pitchers on this board in the best spots and are they actually rosterable tonight? The most unusable pitcher in a top spot is Chris Flexen (at Tigers) has exceeded three strikeouts in just two of his last eight starts and has just a 14.5 K% on the year (7.9 SwStr%). An interesting spot is Zach Eflin hosting the Braves. You don’t normally think of them as high upside for pitchers, but five of eight projected batters exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since last season. Eflin is also one of three pitchers on the board (Cole, Waiwright) averaging at least six innings per start. The concerns are that the Braves are also a dangerous offense in a dangerous park and Eflin has just a 9.8 SwStr%. He costs less than $9K though.

Patrick Corbin is the close your eyes and click option. He saw his velocity climb about a month ago, but it’s been slowly sliding back downward and so are the results. He’s allowed 15 runs over his last 21 innings with just 16 strikeouts and eight walks. He’s also in Tampa Bay (92 wRC+, 29.6 K% vs LHP) and costs less than $7.5K. The opposing pitcher in this matchup is intriguing. Shane McClanahan has had some issues with elevated contact (92.3 mph EV, 9.0% Barrels/BBE, 17.4 HR/FB), so he prefers not to allow much of it (30.4 K%, 18.1 SwStr%). Due to the elevated home run rate and a .338 BABIP, his 4.11 ERA is well above most estimators, though an exact copy of his 4.11 DRA. The Nationals have a 107 wRC+ vs LHP with four of eight projected batters below a 17 K% against lefties since last year, so this is not a great spot and McClanahan hasn’t exceeded 80 pitches in a start yet, but he has at least six strikeouts in three of his last four.

Dropping a little lower on the board, the answer to the DraftKings SP2 question is very simple. Austin Gomber costs just $6K (he’s $3.5K more on FanDuel). Gomber had a 3.9 K-BB% through his first five starts with an 89 mph EV. He was happy to see April end. Since the start of May, he has struck out 43 and walked just four over 40.1 innings with an8 7.4 mph EV and above average ground ball rate (45.9 GB%). The .240 BABIP over this span may merit some regression, but even his FIP with an 18.4 HR/FB since the start of May is just 3.64. He also gets a massive park upgrade with a trip to Miami. The Marlins have an 88 wRC+ and 21.1 K-BB% vs LHP this year. Four of the first six batters in the projected lineup for Miami exceed a 26 K% vs LHP since 2020. Gomber is your easy SP2 on DraftKings on a night where your SP1 decision is going to be very difficult.

Austin Gomber was punished in his last start against the Dodgers (7 ER, 3 IP). That was a quality offense, but he still has an ERA a run below his non-FIP estimators, due to a 4.3 HR/FB that’s due for at least some regression, while his .358 xwOBA is 37 points above his actual mark so far. In fact, he’s at least 35 points higher by xwOBA than wOBA against batters from either side of the plate. The Braves boast a lineup where each of the first six batters are above a 115 wRC+ vs LHP this year with only Nick Markakis (117 wRC+, .144 ISO) below a .200 ISO. At the very least, a top of the lineup that includes Ronald Acuna (159 wRC+, .283 ISO), Ozzie Albies (143 wRC+, .208 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (148 wRC+, .230 ISO) are all strong plays with an implied run line of 4.59 that’s good for seventh best on the board tonight. Kurt Suzuki (117 wRC+, .220 ISO) is $2.5K on FanDuel.

The Dodgers are on the bottom half of the board at just 4.35 implied runs against rookie Austin Gomber in St Louis, who has a 2.93 ERA through eight starts, but underlying numbers may suggest this total is too low. Aside from a SIERA and xFIP in the high fours, Gomber has a .357 xwOBA against, 53 points than the actual number against him. He does have an 85.9 mph aEV, but a 36.6 GB% has led to 7.8% Barrels/BBE, which is slightly on the high side and dangerous against a Dodger offense producing seven batters above a league average hard hit rate (33%) against LHP this year. Four of those batters are above a 110 wRC+ and .220 ISO vs LHP this year as well: Chris Tayler (112 wRC+, .222 ISO), Justin Turner (181 wRC+, .227 ISO), Manny Machado (149 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Matt Kemp (115 wRC+, .224 ISO). David Freese adds a 125 wRC+ with just a .144 ISO with a low price tag out of the cleanup spot. A mostly very affordable Los Angeles lineup may be a bit under-valued here.

Gomber is a talented left-handed pitcher, and he has certainly backed up his prospect pedigree of late, allowing just two earned runs in 16 innings pitched over his last three outings. However, pitching at Coors Field is an entirely different animal, and the young southpaw may have some trouble adjusting to the conditions given his lackluster 19.8% strikeout rate and an uninspiring 35.9% groundball rate on the year. Not only that, but Gomber has also struggled with his control in the early going (12.6% BB%) and has also shown very little ability to control batted ball outcomes, as he's surrendered an above average 38.7% hard hit percentage through 22 career appearances. With such a lack of command, it would not be surprising for Gomber to be on a short leash on Sunday afternoon, which means that the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen could be in for a heavy workload if Gomber is ineffective out of the gate. Even though Nolan Arenado (50.4% HH%, 0.426 ISO, 0.534 wOBA vs LHP), Trevor Story (48.1% HH%, 0.308 ISO, 0.448 xwOBA vs LHP), and the other Colorado Rockies right-handed hitters are the clear preferred options at home versus a left-handed pitcher, it would be ill-advised to eliminate Carlos Gonzalez and David Dahl from consideration entirely since they could have the opportunity to record several at-bats against the Cardinals bullpen. Other than Arenado and Story, the other Rockies righties to target are DJ LeMahieu (40.4% HH%, 0.375 wOBA vs LHP), Ian Desmond (42.0% HH%, 0.259 ISO, 0.377 wOBA vs LHP), and even the recently recalled Matt Holliday, if looking for ways to round out a full stack in large-field tournament formats.

The run line for the Dodgers has been climbing and is currently at 4.83. Dodger Stadium is the most negative run environment on the board, but the home team will confront Austin Gomber with seven RHBs, the first four of which are all above a 115 wRC+ and .180 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. Batters from that side have just a .289 wOBA against Gomber so far, but a .378 xwOBA and 41 Hard%. Justin Turner (164 wRC+, .208 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is on fire (306 wRC+ last seven days) and the most necessary bat to consider from this lineup. Manny Machado (129 wRC+, .211 ISO) is back in the lineup a day after being hit.

Austin Gomber is the second consecutive Cardinals’ pitcher making his first start, but this is not his MLB debut. He’s made 15 relief appearances this year with a 3.4 K-BB%, 27 GB% and 35.9 Hard%. He has made 11 AAA starts with a 19.6 K-BB%. Vegas is heavily siding with the home team (5.04 implied runs) and projecting the major league version of Gomber will struggle in a power friendly park. Eugenio Suarez (171 wRC+, .261 ISO) has been a destroyer of LHP over the last calendar year. Adam Duvall (112 wRC+, .237 ISO) can still do some damage as well and bumps up a few spots tonight. Gomber, has actually had more issues with LHBs at the major league level (.457 wOBA, .477 xwOBA) and will be facing two of them who handle LHP well at the top of the order in Scooter Gennett (117 wRC+, .124 ISO) and Joey Votto (112 wRC+, .184 ISO). Remember that the Reds were completely shut down by an unknown Cardinals' pitcher last night though.