Austin Meadows Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Even with several other teams above five implied runs and nearly half the board above four and a half, the Padres are running away with this thing, approaching a seven run team total at Coors tonight and DraftKings doesn’t even make it that hard to afford them. Naturally, they top stacking ownership projections on either site, nearing 20% on DraftKings (though the Phillies also project for double digit stack ownership) and 15% on FanDuel without any other team projecting much higher than nine percent. The Padres also smash the slate most often in simulations, around 50% above the next “smashiest” stack (Dodgers) on FanDuel. However, with the Phillies available only on DraftKings, they smash the slate just 3.5 percentage points less often than San Diego there. As mentioned, San Diego bats are under-priced on DraftKings and they are the top projected value stack, but again, with the Phillies not too far behind. The top projected value stack on FanDuel currently (PlateIQ projections are fluid and are updated throughout the day) is the Tigers. They’re a terrible hitting team, but also priced barely above the minimum, while someone like Austin Meadows is still a quality bat against RHP (132 wRC+, .245 ISO since LY), costing just $2.3K. Only one of the above mentioned teams is also currently a top rated stack and it’s not the Padres. To find out more, check out today’s PliateIQ Live Blog.

If players are striving to include Coors bats with expensive arms in their lineups, the other half of those lineups is going to have to include value bats and projections for FanDuel firmly suggest many of those can be found in one spot in Detroit. While Jordan Lyles actually projects as a top value arm and reasonable SP2 on DraftKings at a very low price as the Orioles allow him to pile up the innings against a struggling offense, he’s still a below average pitcher with batters from either side owning at least a .350 wOBA against him since last season, facing a lineup without a single projected starter above $3K (FD). Austin Meadows (136 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP since LY), Robbie Grossman (98 wRC+, .144 ISO), Jonathan Schoop (78 wRC+, .131 ISO), Jeimer Candelario (115 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Willi Castro (64 wRC+, .133 ISO) all project as top point per dollar plays via PlateIQ against Lyles tonight on FanDuel. However, both Cooper Hummel (99 wRC+ overall this season) and Jordan Luplow (115 wRC+, .269 ISO vs LHP since 2021) project as top three values against Drew Smyly (RHBs .342 wOBA, .338 xwOBA since 2021) too.

DraftKings goes to the other side of both of those matchups for top value projections. Alfonso Rivas (153 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Rafael Ortega (133 wRC+, .186 ISO) are extremely cheap against Zach Davies (LHBs .347 wOBA, .370 xwOBA since LY). Against Eduardo Rodriguez, another top projected point per dollar pitcher, in Detroit, PlateIQ projections favor a couple of min-priced Baltimore bats in Rylan Bannon (MLB debut this week) and Chris Owings (177 wRC+, .142 ISO), who are both expected to bat in the bottom third of the lineup.

Great news for DraftKings players is that projections also favor a couple of visiting Coors bats for less than $3K, but Michael A. Taylor (96 wRC+, .110 ISO) and Emmanuel Rivera (110 wRC+, .076 ISO) have displayed no power at all with the platoon advantage. Though, they will make it much easier to jam in a $5.3K Sal Perez (163 wRC+, .321 ISO) against Kyle Freeland (RHBs .348 wOBA, .329 xwOBA since LY).

Matt Harvey was BABIP’d in his return to Citi Field, but that’s one of the risks of a 16.6 K% and 7.1 SwStr%. The rest of the profile isn’t terrible (6.3 BB%, 43.9 GB%, 89.5 mph EV, 6.8% Barrels/BBE), but there’s nothing special about any of it either and this is one of the more hitter friendly spots on the slate with batters from either side of the plate between a .359 and .384 wOBA and xwOBA against Harvey since 2019. The Rays swing and miss a lot, but Harvey no longer has the stuff to exploit that weakness and six of nine batters in the projected lineup for Tampa Bay have a 110 wRC+ or higher vs RHP since 2019. Ji-Man Choi (130 wRC+, .210 ISO), Brandon Lowe (140 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Austin Meadows (145 wRC+, .271 ISO) all exceed a .200 ISO as well. Meadows is the highest priced projected Ray on FanDuel ($3.6K), where he’s probably still a solid value, but his DraftKings price is just $200 more, potentially making him one of the top values on the slate. The Rays currently find themselves the rare positions of owning the top implied run line on the board just below five runs (4.93).

You’re probably rostering a high end starting pitcher tonight, which means you’re in the market for some value in your lineup. The Rays are implied for just over four runs tonight, which finds them somewhere around the middle of the board. They’re also facing Shohei Ohtani, which makes you think they’re not going to be finding their way into a lot of lineups tonight. That might be a mistake for a few reasons. The first of which is the park itself. Statcast’s new Park Factors tell us that this is not only a smash spot for LH power, but the smash spot in the majors with a 141 HR Factor for batters from that side of the plate over the last three years. This is information many players probably aren’t aware of yet. There’s also the Tampa Bay offense itself. They do strike out a ton, but there are still several quality batters in this lineup. Austin Meadows (145 wRC+ .271 ISO vs RHP since 2019) costs less than $4K on either site tonight and may be one of the top values on the slate. Brandon Lowe (136 wRC+, .248 ISO) costs less than $3K on FanDuel. Ohtani struggled early last time out before righting the ship in Texas, but he’s also walked 13 of the 62 batters he’s faced this year, which can run up his often limited pitch count quite quickly. The bullpen for the Angels has struggled with a 4.75 ERA over the last month too, though all estimators are more than half a run below that. The Tampa Bay lineup may have some unsuspected value tonight, especially from the left side.

The Rays are the rare offense that often justifies both rostering the opposing pitcher due to high strikeout rates in their lineup along with several Tampa Bay bats in additional lineups. Strikeouts don’t preclude batters from being productive, especially in this day and age and nowhere is that more apparent than among the Tampa Bay Rays. Six batters in the projected lineup exceed a 100 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019 and only two are below that mark this year overall. Additionally, two LHBs exceed a 135 wRC+ and .250 ISO vs RHP since 2019 as well (Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe). Why is the left-handed aspect important? Because batters from that side have a .375 wOBA and .410 xwOBA against Shohei Ohtani since last year. Ohtani is certainly a pitcher you want some exposure to on this slate if it turns out getting drilled in the elbow on Sunday is not expected to limit him, but he’s still a pitcher who carries a 21 BB% next to his 37.1 K%. That can drive up a pitch count quickly and Ohtani has been limited to 80 and 75 pitches in his last two starts. Should Ohtani either be ineffective, scratched or run up his pitch count quickly, the bullpen behind him has been marginal at best with a 4.21 ERA and 4.06 xFIP. The current implied run line for the Rays is just 3.75, one of the lowest numbers on the board, which should ease any ownership concerns as well.

Austin Meadows made a triumphant return to the Tampa Bay lineup last night with a HR and will likely be at the top of the order against Masahiro Tanaka tonight. Meadows has blasted RHP for a 144 wRC+ and .265 ISO since last season and Tanaka has been quite HR prone over the last several years himself, including a 16.4 HR/FB and 9.1% Barrels/BBE this year. In fact, Meadows has faced Tanaka 21 times in his career with two HRs. According to Statcast, Meadows has a .472 xwOBA in these matchups with a 90.6 mph EV and 28.3 degree launch angle. To make things even more enticing, he costs just $3K on FanDuel, where he could be one of the top values on the board.