Austin Slater Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Game note: Giants vs. Phillies is expected to start at 7:15pm ET Saturday.

With a strong and expensive pitching board, pitcher friendly weather around most the country and the Padres separating themselves by nearly a run and a half from the rest of the board at Coors, some cheaper bats are likely to be a necessity in your lineups tonight and projections for both sites agree (though more so FanDuel) that you can find that in the San Francisco lineup. Tommy Henry has a 4.9 K-BB% through seven starts and 28% of his strikeouts came in a single start against the Cardinals of all teams. He hasn’t exceeded four in any other. Opponents have a 90.9 mph EV against him. His 5.50 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators and he does not have a single pitch that grades above average via Statcast measures. A LHP generally means a cheap and valuable RH lineup for the Giants and that’s no exception in Arizona tonight, which is likely to be one of the few decent hitting environments outside Coors tonight. The Giants are fifth on the board at exactly four and a half implied runs. The top three projected values on FanDuel are all Giants tonight, including Austin Slater (137 wRC+, .152 ISO vs LHP this year), J.D. Davis (126 wRC+, .173 ISO) and Evan Longoria (123 wRC+, .209 ISO), all costing less than $2.5K. Slater doubles as not only a top 10 projected bat overall, but also a top 10 projected DraftKings value for $3.1K. The only other Giant also projecting as a top 10 DK value ($2.5K) is David Villar (161 wRC+, .283 ISO). RHBs have a .339 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against Henry.

After that, projections and pricing disagree about where best value comes from. Juan Soto (164 wRC+, .243 ISO) projects so strongly at Coors that he makes the list of top projected values even at $4.3K on FanDuel against Ryan Feltner (RHBs .390 wOBA, .379 xwOBA – LHBs .319 wOBA, .328 xwOBA). Jurickson Profar (107 wRC+ .167 ISO) is also a top bat and top projected FanDuel value for $3.1K. Min-priced Jose Azocar (110 wRC+) is the top projected DraftKings value, but with no other Padres among the top 10.

We also find a trio of Tampa Bay bats projecting for top FanDuel value at home against Mitch White (batters from either side between a .302 and .331 wOBA and xwOBA). Jonathan Aranda (160 wRC+, .208 ISO), Manuel Margot (101 wRC+, .108 ISO) and Ji-Man Choi (109 wRC+, .155 ISO) all cost $2.5K or less. Jose Siri (96 wRC+, .140 ISO) is also a top projected FanDuel value for $2.2K. The Blue Jays are likely to be feeding the Rays some of their own medicine tonight. Two trips through the order and the bullpen (4.08 FIP, 3.41 SIERA last 30 days).

As is usually the case, the top projected DraftKings value comes from minimally priced poor offenses against marginal pitching. In this case, it’s Miguel Cabrera (72 wRC+) and Spencer Torkelson (75 wRC+) against Lucas Giolito (RHBs .409 wOBA, .351 ISO). Both have a sub-.100 ISO against RHP this year. The only other pair of teammates projecting for top 10 value reside at the bottom of the projected Kansas City lineup in Hunter Dozier (96 wRC+, .120 ISO) and Nate Eaton (115 wRC+, .217 ISO). RHBs have a .329 wOBA and .321 xwOBA against Marco Gonzales this year, but Weather Edge is forecasting the most pitcher friendly weather on the slate in Kansas City tonight, though that could change.

The platoon heavy Giants are facing a LHP at Coors tonight. Anyone who’s played a reasonable amount of daily fantasy baseball, probably and rightfully expects San Francisco bats to be among the top projected values tonight. Sites haven’t been pricing bats up for Coors this year and right-handed platoon bats are generally underpriced due to playing time. This is particularly true on FanDuel, where we find four Giants among the top eight projected values tonight, all four also doubling as top projected bats overall against Kyle Freeland (RHBs .326 wOBA, .328 xwOBA). Austin Slater (133 wRC+, .149 ISO), David Villar (173 wRC+, .298 ISO), Wilmer Flores (105 wRC+, .170 ISO) and J.D. Davis (126 wRC+, .177 ISO) are all within $100 of $2.7K on FanDuel tonight. Villar ($2.4K) and Slater ($3.5K) are also top projected DraftKings bats and values as well.

The Seattle Mariners are the only other offense projecting multiple top 10 FanDuel values, where Mitch Haniger (57 wRC+) and Dylan Moore (150 wRC+, .190 ISO) cost $2.3K each against J.P. Sears (RHBs within two points of a .340 wOBA and xwOBA). The Mariners have a 4.22 team run total that sits in the middle of tonight’s 11 game board.

Dylan Bundy may not walk anybody (4.7%), but has also struck out just 13 of his last 140 batters with just 27.7% of his contact on the ground. A 4.12 xERA is Bundy’s only estimator more than a quarter run removed from his 4.68 ERA. He’s had a bit of a reverse split (RHBs .344 wOBA, .320 xwOBA – LHBs .298 wOBA, .309 xwOBA). A trio of Royals costing less than $3K project as top DraftKings values tonight: Vinnie Pasquantino (119 wRC+, .179 ISO), Hunter Dozier (81 wRC+, .147 ISO) and Kyle Isbel (67 wRC+, .147 ISO).

While there are a lot of high upside mid-range arms tonight, they’re almost all also highly volatile arms in dangerous spots as well, which means that you’re probably paying up for pitching tonight and without a single offense above five implied runs, maybe you want to fill out the majority of your lineup with value bats. To start with, the Giants are facing a marginal lefty, which generally means that by rostering some cheap RHBs (with some pinch-hit risk), you can generally do whatever else you want in your lineups. This is especially true on FanDuel, where Austin Slater (138 wRC+, .156 ISO vs LHP this season), Evan Longoria (101 wRC+, .155 ISO) and Brandon Belt (102 wRC+) are all top of the board projected values for $2.6K or less. With just a 16.5 K% on the season and 90.1 mph EV, Madison Bumgarner’s estimators range from a 4.51 FIP to a 5.32 DRA, all more than one-third of a run above his 4.13 ERA (10 of 66 runs unearned). Batters from either side of the plate are between a .327 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. We should also mention that J.D. Davis (126 wRC+, .176 ISO) is in a similar price range and has a 158 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Luis Gonzalez (68 wRC+) is the only top projected DraftKings value in this lineup, costing the minimum, although Davis is also less than $3K.

Each of the top nine projected values on DraftKings cost $2.1K or less. In fact, only one of them (Vinnie Pasquantino) costs even that much. While Pasquantino (117 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Nick Pratto (81 wRC+, .203 ISO) are the only pair of teammates that appear on this list, it doesn’t mean much because they both play the same position, though Pratto has recently gained OF eligibility on DK. LHBs only have a .310 wOBA and .311 xwOBA against Joe Ryan this year, but we’re talking about a pair of decent power bats in an average spot at minimal cost.

If we drop down one more spot, we also find a pair of Cubs among the top 10 projected DraftKings Value. Rafael Ortega (88 wRC+, .119 ISO) costs a lofty $2.8K with Zach McKinstry (48 wRC+) costing the minimum against the very barrel (11.2%) and walk (9.5%) prone Josiah Gray. LHBs have a .388 wOBA and .342 xwOBA against Gray this year. Optimistically for Gray, Ian Happ (114 wRC+, .162 ISO) is the only other LHB in this projected lineup. With Gray holding RHBs to a .310 wOBA (.258 xwOBA), there’s justification for stacking LH Cubs, while using Gray (26.3 K%) in additional lineups.

The current expectation is for stacking projections to fluctuate even more than usual with pieces being moved all over the major league board until 6 pm ET tonight. However, the current state of things is that no stack on a 13 (or 14 game DK) slate projects for double digit ownership, despite three teams above five implied runs, while the Braves smash the slate most often in simulations, but still at a number below nine percent of the time. The San Francisco Giants project for the most value, as they generally do when facing a left-handed pitcher, even a decent one like Tyler Anderson. Their right-handed platoon heavy lineup is simply too cheap. This is the only column where projections get into into the double digits at this point in time. It seems the trade deadline chaos has even reached the stacking projections tonight. To find out what result these well distributed projections have on Leverage Ratings, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

With the Dodgers owning a board high 7.11 implied run line, more than a full run higher than any other offense, what GPP players have to wonder is how they can win a tournament without stacking Dodgers or differentiate in other ways? The highest projected ownership? Dodger stacks. More than twice any other team currently (PlateIQ projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). Which stack smashes the slate most often in simulations? Dodgers twice as often as any other offense again. Which stack projects for the most value? This is where we…oh, Dodgers again, but closer to the Giants this time. Jose Urena somehow held the Dodgers to a run over 6.2 innings, despite walking more batters (three) than he struck out (two) in his first start of the season. This time, he takes the mound with a 4.0 K-BB% at Coors against them. The Dodgers are not priced up for Coors and bring a board best 120 wRC+ vs RHP with them. For more on the top rated stacks, including some Dodger alternatives, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The more likely reason for needing value bats may be Dodger stacks rather than high priced pitching tonight, but no matter what your reasoning, Plate IQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) have some ideas on where you can find those bats. As is usually the case, most right-handed platoon bats are too cheap because they don’t play very often. At least the more successful ones and more often than not, the Giants are going to project a ton of value when facing marginal lefties and even that may be under-stating it tonight. Tyler Gilbert has struck out just four of 56 batters in July. He’s allowed 13 barrels (12.9%) in 30.1 innings on the season, creating a 6.74 xERA. He doesn’t have an estimator below five. The Giants have a 4.76 implied run line that’s essentially tied for fifth best on the board and while they are too cheap on either site, it’s even more blatant on FanDuel, where Austin Slater (153 wRC+, .172 ISO vs LHP this year), Yermin Mercedes (147 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Darin Ruf (162 wRC+, .294 ISO) are all $2.6K or less. Mercedes is actually the top projected DraftKings value at minimum cost too ($2K). You may have to endure some pinch-hit risk, but these prices are so low, it’s probably worth it. RHBs have a .359 wOBA, but mind-blowing .431 xwOBA against Gilbert this year.

A struggling and banged up Boston offense (4.75 team run total) may be the place to look for DraftKings value. Zach Plesac has been a bit up and down over the last month, much as he has for the entire season. Most recently, he’s allowed nine runs (six earned) over 8.2 innings to the Royals and Tigers, striking out just eight of 44 batters, though with a .375 BABIP and 39.7 LOB%. To be honest, the only positive quality he’s exhibited is a 5.7 BB%. He’s struck out just 16.7% of batters faced with a 90.2 mph EV and 10.8% Barrels/BBE. Despite a string of seven straight Quality Starts before these last two outings, his 4.02 ERA is below all season estimators. A Boston lineup missing a few bats means a cheaper Fenway lineup for daily fantasy players. While Plesac has a fairly large split this year (LHBs .278 wOBA/RHBs .351 wOBA), Statcast closes that gap a bit (LHBs .347 xwOBA/RHBs .377 xwOBA). Jeter Downs (7 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP), Bobby Dalbec (53 wRC+, .150 ISO) and Yolmer Sanchez (111 wRC+) haven’t been a very productive group, but have matchup and environment in their favor tonight for less than $2.5K.

Projections for either site also suggest you can find a bit of value in the top two offenses on the board tonight (Dodgers 5.57 implied runs, Brewers 4.97). Max Muncy (93 wRC+, .139 ISO) doubles as a top 10 projected bat and value on FanDuel against Paolo Espino (batters from either side of the plate between a .309 and .342 wOBA and xwOBA this year). Jake Lamb (157 wRC+, .289 ISO) is a top value for $2.2K on either site. On DraftKings, both Mike Brosseau (172 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Pedro Severino (86 wRC+, .100 ISO) can be added to Milwaukee stacks against Kyle Freeland (RHBs .322 wOBA, .325 xwOBA this year) for $2.5K or less.

There are so many interesting factors that could play a big part on a large Tuesday night slate. We have Coors, but also the weather at both Yankee Stadium (potential rain) and Wrigley (wind blowing out) potentially affecting games. And what are we going to see out of Chris Sale in his first start of the season? Gerrit Cole is tonight’s most expensive and highest projected pitcher, but what will the weather forecast hold for him? No matter what players decide to do, it’s probably going to include a lot of expensive players and the need for some value bats and the one spot where projections for both DraftKings and FanDuel agree that several can be found is in San Francisco.

Dallas Keuchel tossed his second Quality Start of the season last time out, holding the Rockies to three runs over seven innings, striking out four without a walk. He still keeps half his contact on the ground (52%), but even that’s way down from his prime, while registering just a 3.3 K-BB%. Even with the favorable contact profile, a 4.48 xERA and 4.73 xFIP are his only estimators below five. The Giants currently own a 4.82 implied run line that’s top third of the board, but they also feature lots of cheap platoon bats, as they normally do against LHP. Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA above .335 against Keuchel this season and the recently recalled Yermin Mercedes (81 wRC+ since being recalled) costs $2.2K or less on either site and is projected to hit in the top half of tonight’s lineup. Austin Slater (144 wRC+, .173 ISO vs LHP this season) and Darin Ruf (142 wRC+, .214 ISO) both carry some later game pinch-hit risk, but cost just $2.6K each on FanDuel. Slater is $3K on DraftKings, where Brandon Crawford (92 wRC+ vs LHP in 2022) costs just $2.2K.

If you’re stacking Coors bats, Brent Rooker costs the minimum on DraftKings ($2.5K on FanDuel), where he’s the top projected value on the board. He has just seven PAs on the season, but a 140 wRC+ at AAA. Ha-Seong Kim (147 wRC+.140 ISO vs LHP this year), projected to bat leadoff, is a top projected DK value as well for less than $3K. RHBs have a .398 wOBA and .384 xwOBA against the struggling Austin Gomber this season. On such a large slate, no other offense projects multiple top 10 values on either site.