Ben Gamel Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Pittsburgh lineup is not one that scares anybody at this point. The Pirates have just an 86 wRC+ vs RHP this season and are implied for a marginal 4.28 runs tonight. However, a quick peak at the projected lineup tonight shows just one batter below a 99 wRC+ vs RHP this season and just two below a 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. Then we look at the price tags and realize that this may be where some of our value bats come from tonight. Starting against them is Vince Velasquez, who has retained all of the walks (12.7%) and blasts (11.1% Barrels/BBE), but with fewer strikeouts (24.2%). He’s actually struck out just 13 of his last 76 with a 9.0 SwStr%. He’s walked 11 with seven home runs over that span. On the season, LHBs have a .368 wOBA (.344 xwOBA against him). Bryan Reynolds (139 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP in 2021) is the top bat in this lineup, but he’s also the one you have to pay a little bit for. Ben Gamel (117 wRC+, .286 ISO) is min-priced on DraftKings and projected to lead off tonight. Rodolfo Castro (136 wRC+, .529 ISO) has opened eyes in a hurry and still costs less than $3K on either site. Gregory Polanco (99 wRC+, .229 ISO) is within $100 of $2.5K on either site. Players could do a lot worse than a left-handed Pittsburgh stack if paying up in other spots tonight.

There are only two bullpens in the major leagues that have an ERA above six and an xFIP and FIP above five over the last 30 days. Unfortunately, the Royals are off the board tonight, but there’s nothing stopping players from attacking the Arizona bullpen (6.35 ERA, 5.65 FIP, 5.32 xFIP) tonight though. Nothing except the Pittsburgh offense that is, but even this is not a lineup completely bereft of quality bats. An implied run line of 4.5 is middle of the board, so Pirate bats shouldn’t be high on the radar of most players and we don’t expect the entire lineup to do a ton of damage, but the top third to half has actually been good this year. In fact, among those projected to start tonight, the first six batters all have at least a 98 wRC+ vs RHP this year with Ben Gamel (117 wRC+, .202 ISO) perhaps the top value play on the board for just $2K. He, along with All-Stars Bryan Reynolds (140 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Adam Frazier (129 wRC+) all exceed a 130 wRC+ overall over the last 30 days. Starting for the Diamondbacks will be Taylor Widener. He has a 2.54 ERA that’s well more than two runs below even his best estimator (4.75 SIERA), due to a .223 BABIP and 89.7 LOB%. The contact profile behind a 30.9 GB% is a concern (90.4 mph EV, 10.7% Barrels/BBE) with only a 20.5 K%. While he has held batters from either side of the plate below a .315 wOBA this year, Statcast runs up LHBs to a .338 xwOBA and RHBs to a .386 mark. Additionally, Widener spent all of June on the IL and threw just 63 pitches in his return nearly two weeks ago, so we can expect to see a lot of the worst bullpen in baseball tonight.

Anthony Desclafani’s numbers don’t appear terrible on the surface; he has a 4.22 EA, 4.55 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA with a 15.3% K-BB and 10.2% SwStr. He does however have a 43.3% hard contact rate allowed, 41.1% FB rate, and a .328 xwOBA with an 88.7 MPH aEV. Over the past 30 days, Desclafani has struggled a bit with a 4.90 SIERA and 9.3% K-BB. Desclafani is much more vulnerable against left handed bats, as he has allowed just a .268 xwOBA vs. lefties compared to an ugly .368 xwOBA to righties since 2017. The Brewers will attack him with 6 LHB in the order that are all in play today: Christian Yelich (.442 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Mike Moustakas (.367), Yasmani Grandal (.348), Ben Gamel (.313), Eric Thames (.312) and Travis Shaw (.311). Ryan Braun (.340) and Orlando Arcia (.278) are righties but also in play. Grandal is especially intriguing given that he will leadoff this afternoon. Shaw has just a $2.7k price on Draftkings due to his slow start to the year and is a great value. Mike Moustakas has been the Brewers hottest hitter with a .454 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Christian Yelich at .436. The Brewers have a 5.25 implied line vs. Desclafani and the Reds this afternoon.

Chris Archer has returned from the IL to allow 15 runs in 13.2 IP this month and post a -1.4 K-BB%. While his velocity is up slightly relative to April, it’s still down from last season. There may still be something going on here, but what’s not going on is quality pitching. For the season, his ERA meets all of his estimators above five (all are above six in May). The one area of improvement is an 86.2 mph aEV, but he’s still generated 9.2% Barrels/BBE with a .360 xwOBA (.366 last 30 days). With six teams currently projected above five runs tonight, perhaps Milwaukee bats fall off the radar at 4.85 runs (seventh). While xwOBA exhibits just an eight point split for Archer over the last 12 months, but actual results, LHBs have a .354 wOBA against him. Christian Yelich (188 wRC+, .359 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) needs to be seriously considered if his high price tag is going to price him out of most lineups. Mike Moustakas (110 wRC+, .245 ISO) and Yasmani Grandal (127 wRC+, .242 ISO) each exceed a 180 wRC+ and 40% hard hit rate over the last month. Ben Gamel (108 wRC+, .135 ISO) would be an interesting value play out of the leadoff spot, should he appear there again. He’s second on the team with a 64.3 Hard% over the last seven days (10 PA min.).

Felix Hernandez and James Shields is a great pitching matchup if you have access to a time machine. This afternoon, however, it represents two of the top five implied run lines on a four game afternoon board. Seattle, being the only offense above five (5.12) on the slate outside Coors, is facing a pitcher who has walked more (13) than he's struck out (11) through 23.1 innings and is one of several pitchers on Wednesday with an xwOBA above .400. The odd thing is that Shields has only allowed a single HR, which came in his first start in Kansas City. Kevin's early forecast may provide a remedy for that with winds gusting out towards right up to 25 mph. Lefties have torched him for a .388 wOBA (.390 xwOBA) since last season, though righties have actually hit the ball a bit harder (34.2% to 32.4%) with a few more in the air (35.4 GB% to 42.3 GB%). Stack your Mariners. Dee Gordon and Ben Gamel tie for the lowest wRC+ (99) vs RHP since last season in this lineup with the two through six batters plus Mike Zunino all above a .190 ISO. In fact, Zunino, along with Mitch Haniger (147 wRC+) and Nelson Cruz (148 wRC+) all eclipse a .240 ISO against same handed pitching over that span. Haniger adds a 297 wRC+ over the last week with he Cruz, Zunino and Robinson Cano (138 wRC+, .193 ISO) all making hard contact on at least 40% of batted balls. Gordon, Gamel and Jean Segura are the only three in the lineup below a 37% hard hit rate against RHP since last season. With Nelson Cruz the highest cost on either site ($4.3K on DK), the Mariners are a lower cost alternative to Coors that may allow players to pay up for stud pitchers. The White Sox are the low team of the five (4.38) and Felix hasn't been bad outside of one awful start (4 IP - 8 ER - 3 HR - 5 BB - 1 K) in San Francisco of all places. His line otherwise: 22.2 IP - 7 ER - 5 BB - 19 K - 91 BF). While the Sox have probably exceeded expectations to this point, the King is not a bad SP2 choice for much less than $7K this afternoon. The Sox have a 16.0 K-BB% vs RHP. There are reasons for concern though. , Felix's SwStr has not exceeded 9.3% yet and his 93.3 Z-Contact% is the worst mark among all Wednesday pitchers with Statcast offering a .396 xwOBA that's 73 points above actual. Left-handed batters have a .409 xwOBA (.355 wOBA) since last season. Yoan Moncada (134 wRC+, .380 xwOBA, .245 ISO, 44.7 Hard% vs RHP career) has seen his cost rise, but he is the bat players want here. He has a 219 wRC+ over the last week. Although he and Nick Delmonico are only separated by 20 points of actual wOBA against RHP since last season, they are separated by 200 points via Contact xwOBA, our newest PlateIQ stat.

Mike Foltynewicz has a 21.1 K% and 9.0 SwStr% that are both right around league average this year, but ever since striking out 11 batters three starts back, he's allowed 14 ERs over his last six innings with a 39.3 Hard-Soft%, while striking out just six of 42 batters. True, one of those starts was in Colorado, but LHBs have trounced him all season long (.366 wOBA, 28.6 Hard-Soft%, 32.6 GB%). The Mariners have a Vegas projection of 4.84 runs, which is fourth, but their LHBs should be a high priority in the new launching pad in Atlanta. Yonder Alonso (146 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP this year) is a top value First Baseman at $4K on DK and $3.3K on FD. He has a 206 wRC+ and 57.1 Hard%, even if he does have just single HR. Robinson Cano (130 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP) and Kyle Seager (100 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP) each have a wRC+ below 40 over the last week, but Seager can at least claim a 42.9 Hard%, but five strikeouts in just 12 PAs. Ben Gamel (109 wRC+, .116 ISO vs RHP) has exhibited little power, but is certainly another low priced option. Against RHBs, Foltynewicz has a 15.2 K-BB% and 45.5 GB% with a 4.9 Hard-Soft%, but with a .328 wOBA and nine of his 19 HRs allowed. That's not nearly strong enough to take Nelson Cruz (152 wRC+, .295 ISO vs RHP this season) out of play either, though it would be one hell of of a payup around $5K on either site. His 270 wRC+ (56.3 Hard%, three HRs) over the last week is fifth highest on tonight's slate (10 PA min.).

While pricing generally tightens up as the season wears on and players will be hard pressed to find the kind of cheap or even minimally priced value that was often available in April and May, there should be a wider search for low cost bats with both Max Scherzer and Chris Sale on the mound. Occasionally, you'll have to go against other top pitchers in order to find them, but it can often be worth it when these hitters don't have to do much to pay off. Despite a matchup with Chris Archer, Derek Fisher is likely under-valued on either site ($3.3K DK/$2.5K FD). He leads off for Houston and may be able to take advantage of Archer's tendency for hard contact (though mostly on the ground) with a 204 wRC+, .313 ISO and 53.9 Hard% vs RHP so far. Eric Sogard is not what he appeared to be earlier in the season, but he still costs less than $3K in the leadoff spot for the Brewers and Carlos Martinez has been vulnerable to LHBs (.332 wOBA since last season). Jarrod Dyson has no such illusions of facing a quality arm. In fact, he's in Texas against Nick Martinez (LHBs .401 wOBA since last season), where his 101 wRC+, .137 ISO vs RHP this year is fine for $3.4K on DK ($1K less on DraftKings) batting second for the Mariners. Teammate Ben Gamel is only $500 more on FanDuel out of the leadoff spot. Adam Frazier costs $2.7K at the top of the lineup against Homer Bailey (LHBs .380 wOBA since returning from injury). Teammate John Jaso bats lower in the order, but costs even less ($2.6K or less on either site).