Brandon Crawford Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

We can probably consider both environment and umpiring (Ted Barrett) to be neutral at Dodger Stadium tonight. Winds are expected to be nearly 20 mph, but blowing from left to right, rather than in or out. This actually may make it the most pitcher friendly environment on the slate. Alex Wood finished the season strong with no more than two runs in any of his last six starts, but just two quality starts, as he was held under 82 pitches in each of his last four. It’s hard to quantify the season as anything other than a major success, striking out 26% of batters (19.3 K-BB%) with 50.8% of his contact on the ground. Despite the great defense (+22 Runs Prevented), Wood’s 3.83 ERA was above, but within half a run of all of his estimators. The Dodgers had a 104 wRC+ vs LHP, but a 117 wRC+ and 17.3 HR/FB at home. Nobody in the projected lineup exceeds a 21.1 K% vs LHP this season. This is a tough spot for Wood, but considering you essentially have to select 40% of the reasonably usable pitchers on DraftKings today, he’s fine at $7.8K.

Should you not choose that patch, the Dodgers have a 4.46 implied run line that’s tied for third on an eight team board, while Wood had virtually no split this year with batters from either side of the plate between a .296 and .304 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Trea Turner (201 wRC+, .320 ISO vs LHP) is your top Dodger bat. Corey Seager (147 wRC+, .217 ISO) hit LHP very well and may be a contrarian play here. Albert Pujols (146 wRC+, .309 ISO) costs $2.1K on either site.

Max Scherzer had a 34.1 K% (15.9 SwStr%) this year and probably has the longest of leashes today. Everyone, absolutely EVERY ONE, will likely have him in their lineups tonight, especially on DraftKings, for less than $10K. There is no question that he’s the top pitcher on the board. However, we can find some merit for a fade, starting with those ridiculous expected ownership rates. Scherzer also did allow 11 runs (10 earned) over his last two regular season starts (10.1 IP) and was not extraordinarily sharp in the wild card game. In fact, he’s struck out just 14 of his last 70 batters (exactly 20%) including the wild card game. With a .247 BABIP and 84.3 LOB%, his 2.46 ERA this season was about half a run below estimators ranging from a 2.88 DRA to a 3.24 xFIP. Unlike his opponent, Scherzer does not benefit from a great defense behind him (-3 Runs Prevented).

That the Giants have a 3.04 run team total that’s a full run below any other team on the board is no surprise, but as mentioned, Scherzer hasn’t been his sharpest recently and the reward from a San Francisco lineup explosion would probably be worth the risk in GPPs, though batters from either side of the plate were below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA against Scherzer this year. Nobody in the projected San Francisco lineup was below a 99 wRC+ or .169 ISO vs RHP this season and if you’re stacking Giants, you’re probably not concerned with price because you’re also foregoing the only really expensive pitcher. Brandon Crawford (156 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP) is the top bat here with LaMonte Wade (130 wRC+, .251 ISO) and Mike Yastrzemski (125 wRC+, .278 ISO) holding a large power advantage over the rest of the lineup.

After missing all of 2018 due to injury, Jimmy Nelson made his debut earlier this month on 6/5, giving up 4 earned runs in just 3 innings of work. He walked a batter per inning, averaged just 92.5 MPH on his fastball (down from 94.5 MPH in 2017) and certainly looked like a pitcher that is trying to shake off rust after a long absence. Though Oracle Park is certainly not hitter-friendly, Giants bats are very affordable across the industry and are an option for those that are paying up for Sale and/or Strasburg on the afternoon slate. Brandon Belt (.387 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Buster Posey (.367), Evan Longoria (.326), Joe Panik (.315) and Brandon Crawford (.311) are all solid options in the Giants’ projected order. Pablo Sandoval (.379) is also a great option if he can crack the starting lineup. Belt has been the Giants’ hottest hitter with a .407 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Sandoval with a .393 mark. Mike Yastrzemski projects to bat 2nd, but has just a .242 xwOBA vs. RHP on the year. All Giants’ bats are available for $3.8k or less on Draftkings with the exception of Belt, who is $4.2k.

The Giants haven’t been a good offense this year, but they are priced incredibly low for a nice matchup versus David Hess and they get a park upgrade going from Oracle to Camden Yards. Hess has a 6.71 ERA / 5.69 xFIP / 5.15 SIERA with a 52.8% FB rate, 11.1% K-BB and just an 8.4% SwStr. He also has a .404 xwOBA allowed, 16% barrel rate and 91.4% aEV, all among the worst in the league among starting pitchers. Brandon Belt (.376 xwOBA vs. RHP this year, $4k on DK), Pablo Sandoval (.373, $4.1k), Buster Posey (.363, $3.2k), Joe Panik (.334, $3.6k), Brandon Crawford (.320, $3.2k) and Evan Longoria (.318, $3.8k) are all great value options in the Giants’ order. Mike Yastrzemski (.257, $3.5k) will bat 2nd and had a 160 wRC+ in AAA this year before getting called up. The Orioles have a 5.6 implied line vs. Hess and will likely be very highly-owned on this slate in all formats given the bargain prices and high total.

Normally an offense to target with pitchers, the Giants have some decently priced bats in a nice matchup vs. Zack Godley and the D-Backs tonight. Godley has followed up a mediocre 2018 with an ugly 2019, posting a 7.65 ERA / 5.33 xFIP / 5.27 SIERA so far in 37.2 innings with a 6.2% K-BB. He’s giving up a career high 43% hard contact, a 1.67 HR/9 and a .386 xwOBA allowed with a 10.7% barrel rate allowed. Joe Panik (86 wRC+ vs. RHP since 2018) projects to leadoff at just $3.5k. Steven Duggar (84 wRC+, .147 ISO), Buster Posey (103 wRC+, .104 ISO), Brandon Belt (129 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Evan Longoria (84 wRC+, .167 ISO) are all available for $4.1k or less on Draftkings and $3k or less on Fanduel. Joe Panik (.419 xwOBA over the past 10 days) has been the Giants’ hottest hitter. Brandon Crawford (.375) has also seen the ball well recently and is cheap across the industry. The Giants have a 4.32 implied total for tonight.

Chad Bettis is a pitcher we can target whether he’s at Coors or not. Since 2015 he has a career xwOBA allowed of .329, but owns a .336 xwOBA on the road. He owns reverse splits (.343 xwOBA vs. RHB since 2015, .314 vs. LHB) and actually does a nice job keeping the ball on the ground (49.7% career GB rate) but allows too much contact (career 16.3% K rate). The Giants don’t mash RHP but they do have plenty of value bats. Joe Panik (.315 xwOBA vs. RHP last year), Brandon Belt (.355), Evan Longoria (.306) and Brandon Crawford (.311) are all middle of the order bats tonight that can be had for $4k or less on Draftkings. Steven Duggar (.246 xwOBA vs. RHP last year) is leading off (why, Bochy?) and is intriguing given that it’s hard to find leadoff guys at just $3.6k. The Giants have a 4.24 implied run total vs. Bettis and the Rox tonight.