Brandon Phillips Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Outside of his recent August stretch of allowing two earned runs or less in four of his previous five starts, including a seven-inning shutout against the "same" Los Angeles team he faces this afternoon, Martin Perez has mostly been unable to keep up his magic act that has continuously frustrated daily fantasy players for the last couple of years. If unaware of this madness, Perez typically has had the uncanny ability to work himself out of jams and limit the overall damage to somewhat respectable totals in most of his outings. So much of what makes Perez "successful" is his solid pitching profile to left-handed batters, evidenced by a 21.9% strikeout rate, 55.1% groundball rate, and just 24.4% hard hit rate, all of which are above-average numbers. These skills are something he should have a nearly impossible time relying on today as the Los Angeles Angels will likely have just one lefty in their lineup for this matinee. His previously mentioned skillset takes a drastic downturn against right-handed batters as well, posting just a 12.4% strikeout rate in 121.1 innings pitched this season while surrendering hard contact 36.0% of the time, leading to a lofty .361 wOBA allowed to righties. This all sets up perfectly well for this Angels lineup, as several of their right-handed bats possess discernible skills against southpaws, with Mike Trout (162 wRC+, .410 wOBA, .185 ISO) and Justin Upton (203 wRC+, .476 wOBA, .387 ISO vs LHP) decisively leading the way. On top of the aforementioned duo, virtually any righty cracking the Los Angeles lineup is more than playable on this slate with C.J. Cron (113 wRC+, .337 wOBA, .292 ISO vs LHP), Andrelton Simmons, and newly-acquired Brandon Phillips being the other definitive players to target, while Albert Pujols is probably best avoided outside of large-field tournaments given his overall struggles with left-handed pitching thus far this season.

Brandon McCarthy has been one of, if not the top contact manager in baseball (84 mph aEV, 1.6% Barrels/BBE, 20.9% 95+ mph EV), though that’s not necessarily forward projecting and he’s sacrificed half his strikeout rate to get there (14 of last 131 batters). A progressive thinker and constant tinkerer, it could be a conscious shift, but it certainly makes him less daily fantasy useful. A 4.9 HR/FB may not be sustainable. While the Braves have a very low 3.32 implied run line, the RotoGrinders Player Projections have McCarthy in the middle of the pack, while the Daily K Predictor has him as the low man on the board tonight (3.62). Not having shown much of a platoon split batted ball wise this year, Freddie Freeman (169 wRC+, .324 ISO vs RHP since last season) is always a strong play. Brandon Phillips (269 wRC+) and Ender Inciarte (146 wRC+) have been the only above average hitters in the lineup since the break. Matt Kemp is having a strong season against RHP also (118 wRC+, .202 ISO), but this probably not a spot where players should want too much offensive exposure, while the lack of strikeouts make McCarthy virtually unusable.

Anthony Rendon has taken his dissatisfaction about not being named an All-Star out on opposing pitchers since the break with a 397 wRC+, 45.5 Hard% and three HRs, good enough for the top wRC+ in baseball (10 PA min.) by over 50 points. Jesse Chavez has a .345 wOBA allowed to RHBs since last season. Another third baseman, rookie Matt Chapman, follows (341 wRC+, 44.4 Hard%, two HRs). He faces Blake Snell (RHBs .339 wOBA career). Brandon Phillips has a 326 wRC+, but with just a 26.7 Hard% (one HR) since the break. John Lackey has held RHBs to a .285 wOBA since last season, but with a 35.4 Hard%. Over his last five starts, he's allowed eight HRs with just 14 strikeouts. Three of those HRs have gone to RHBs, who have a 34 Hard% over that span. Mike Napoli (313 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) faces Dylan Bundy. RHBs have a .321 wOBA against him since last season, but with just a 34.7 GB%. Napoli has a 48.5% fly ball rate against RHPs over the same span. Steve Pearce (308 wRC+, 54.6 Hard%, two HRs) has mashed LHP since last season (159 wRC+, .302 ISO). RHBs have a .376 wOBA, 36.7 Hard% against Brian Johnson since last season.

Zach Davies continues to be just a serviceable starting pitcher at the Major League level and is someone that we typically don't go out of our way to plug in lineups or go out of our way to avoid rostering opposing hitters. Davies is amid a relatively rough stretch of his season as well, allowing at least four runs in each of his last three starts, including a whopping seven earned runs his last time out. Today, he'll take on a middling Atlanta Braves offense on the road in what has turned into one of the top hitters' parks in the league, especially for left-handed batters, meaning this remains a boost to the home run and run expectations of the Braves hitters. Davies is a perfectly average starting pitcher, evidenced by his 18.2% career strikeout rate to batters from both sides of the plate, down to 15.5% this year, and is accompanied by a respectable, but not great, 48.1% groundball rate and an above-average 33.7% hard hit rate. Given the neutral matchup, we should give the edge to the Atlanta batters, though they can understandably be an underwhelming offense to target, especially with former MVP candidate, Freddie Freeman, still on the disabled list. The Braves bats are now headlined by the likes of Matt Adams (164 wRC+, .425 wOBA, .365 ISO vs RHP) and Matt Kemp (140 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .234 ISO vs RHP), whom makes his return to the lineup this afternoon following a late change that scratched Danny Santana from said lineup. While Brandon Phillips (121 wRC+, .360 wOBA) and Nick Markakis (108 wRC+, .341 wOBA) aren't elite enough against right-handed pitching to join the company of the aforementioned players, they do possess enough contact skills at the plate to realistically be included as part of a Braves stack in tournaments, if deciding to take that likely contrarian route this fine Sunday afternoon.

There's very little useful Statcast information on tonight's BvP matchups. Not a single player with more than seven BBEs since 2015 (when the Statcast era began) has an aEV above 90.1 mph. We do have HRs though. Despite just an 84.8 mph aEV on 15 recorded BBEs, Anthony Rizzo has homered four times against Jeff Locke with seven total extra-base hits in 30 PAs. With only three Statcast recorded BBEs between them, Matt Kemp and Brandon Phillips have a combined seven HRs against Matt Cain. Kemp and Cain faced each other often during the former's Dodger days. Both, along with Phillips are lesser quality players now, but Cain (2.8 SwStr% last five starts) may have fallen the farthest from his All-Star days. On just six BBEs, Edwin Encarnacion has a 100.2 mph aEV against Wade Miley with two HRs and two doubles in 17 PAs, as if there weren't already enough motivation to load up on that matchup.

The Giants play in one of the most power suppressing parks in baseball in San Francisco, which is probably at least partially responsible for their 90 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers and you could see some of their LH bats being more successful here against Julio Teheran (LHBs .347 wOBA, 35.2 Hard% since last season). He's also generated ground balls on just 35% of BBEs against lefties since last season in which all four of the San Francisco LHBs in tonight's lineup have at least a 99 wRC+ and .149 ISO. With the significant park upgrade, we can probably give those power numbers a bit of a bump. Their implied total of 4.6 runs tonight is actually below average on this board. Atlanta is not a good offense without a lot of power at this point, but it's a bit of a surprise that they've performed so poorly against fly ball pitchers (89 sOPS+) in this park so far. Tonight, the have what would appear a strong matchup against Matt Moore, who has a slate high 89.8 mph aEV, 10.8% Barrels/BBE and 43.2% 95+ mph EV on batted balls. He's also much worse against LHBs (.354 wOBA, 37.1 Hard% since last season). Matt Adams (108 wRC+, .254 ISO vs LHP since last season) would appear the proficient play here, but he has just a 77 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers this year. The three average or better bats against fly ball pitching in this lineup would be Ender Inciarte (101 sOPS+), Matt Kemp (157 sOPS+) and Brandon Phillips (163 sOPS+). Enciarte hasn't shown any power, but has been at least average with a 107 wRC+ against same handed pitching since last year and it's not like Moore has actually been good against RHP (.315 wOBA, 32.9 Hard% since last season). These may be the bats players want to include if attacking Moore tonight with Vegas projecting Atlanta at 4.9 runs.

The top BvP HR totals come against Matt Cain, whom Matt Kemp has homered four times off of and Brandon Phillips has taken deep three times. This information is so far out-dated though that Statcast has only recorded a total of three BBEs against Cain for both batters combined. All three players were once perennial All-Stars, while only Matt Kemp shows occasional glimpses of the player he once was (at least offensively). In a power suppressing park in San Francisco (though worse for LHBs), this information doesn't do players much good tonight. There is some interesting exit velocity information tonight, especially against Ian Kennedy and Matt Boyd. For Cleveland, Jason Kipnis (95.2), Jose Ramirez (93) and Carlos Santana (99.5) all have high aEVs against Ian Kennedy with at least 10 BBEs. Jose Abreu (97), Todd Frazier (94.8), and Avisail Garcia (94.2) all exceed a 94 mph aEV on at least 10 BBEs against Matt Boyd.

Jered Weaver is coming off of an improbable pitching performance against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field in his last start, allowing just two earned runs and striking out five in six innings of work. While that performance was impressive for the washed up Weaver, there is no reason to shy away from attacking this soft-tossing right-hander each and every time he takes the mound. Weaver has actually been overachieving, if you want to call it that, in the strikeout department thus far, posting a 15.6% strikeout rate compared to 13.5% and 13.4% the past two full seasons. Where Weaver really struggles is in the home run department (1.87 HR/9 in 2016), which is due in part to his massive 48.2% flyball rate. The Braves lack a little pop in the lineup without Matt Kemp available, but Freddie Freeman (160 wRC+, .413 wOBA, .294 ISO vs RHP) still remains one of, if not, the top hitting option on the slate given his dominance against right-handed pitching last season and to this point in 2017. The rest of the Braves bats like Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson, Nick Markakis (114 wRC+, .345 wOBA vs RHP in 2016/17), and Brandon Phillips (135 wRC+, .372 wOBA) are better utilized as part of an Atlanta stack in tournaments rather than one-offs given their dearth of individual power upside, though anyone can realistically any one of them can get a hold of one against Weaver.