Brian McCann Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Wednesday’s MLB slate features two elimination games in the National League. This means that no starting pitcher is safe from the quick hook, although the Cardinals certainly have their best pitcher on the mound. Jack Flaherty struck out eight of the 29 Braves he faced, walking just one with a single HR and three earned runs despite keeping 60% of his contact on the ground. He ties for the slate lead with a 29.9 K% this year and his 2.75 ERA tops the board by more than a full half run, though his estimators are more in line with the two pitchers in Los Angeles tonight. Flaherty’s 80.6 Z-Contact% is best on the board by nearly four full points and his 86.1 mph aEV is best on the board by more than a mile per hour. At Flaherty’s $7.4K price tag on DraftKings, he may be the best value there. The Braves had a 23.2 K% vs RHP this year, although today’s specific lineup features just four batters below a 17 K%.

Offensively, it’s a very tight board with only the Nationals outside a 3.75 to 4.0 implied run range. Atlanta is the much more hitter friendly run environment here too. The surprise in this lineup is Adam Duvall (91 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP this year), who’s had some big hits in this series, replacing Matt Joyce. While Flaherty had just 18 points separating his wOBA between RH and LH batters this season (both below .270), his xwOBA pushed that past 60 points (LHBs .306), making this a questionable decision. A healthy Freddie Freeman (154 wRC+, .280 ISO) would be the top bat in this spot, but there’s some question about how healthy he really is. Ozzie Albies (98 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Nick Markakis (112 wRC+, .147 ISO) are more league average bats against RHP, while Brian McCann (97 wRC+, .178 ISO) is certainly viable behind the plate here.

Mike Foltynewicz has the worst season numbers on the board. His 21.4 K% is the only mark below 29% and his estimators (all above four) are the only ones above four. In fact, he owns the only DRA above three and his .325 xwOBA is worst on the board by exactly 50 points. That said, he struck out seven of 24 Cardinals, allowing just three hits without a run in his first start of the series and finished up on quite the run. After being recalled to the majors in August, he has a 2.65 ERA and 3.77 FIP with a 16.5 K-BB% in 10 starts. With the top park neutral matchup on the board (Cardinals 93 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP), Folty is at least viable in a secondary DraftKings spot at the lowest price on the board ($6K). Dexter Fowler (107 wRC+, .179 ISO vs RHP) is the lowest priced Cardinal on DraftKings ($3.7K) and potentially the top value bat in this game (also below $3K on FanDuel). Marcell Ozuna (113 wRC+, .224 ISO) has been heating up in this series. Paul DeJong (104 wRC+, .228 ISO) is the only other batter in the lineup above a .200 ISO vs RHP this year. Yadiers Molina (77 wRC+) is the only batter in the lineup outside a 97-113 wRC+ range vs RHP this year.

The game in St Louis features the two highest ground ball rates in baseball this year (more than 100 IP), but also the only two strikeout rates on the board lower than 23% in Dallas Keuchel (18.7 K%, 60.1 GB%) and Dakota Hudson (18 K%, 56.9 GB%). They are also the only pitchers on the board above a .300 wOBA (both are above .330) and above 35.5% 95+ mph EV (both are above 38%). While these are clearly the bottom two pitchers on the board from a daily fantasy standpoint and further burdened by the prospect of elimination (in Hudson’s case) or working on just three days rest (in Keuchel’s case), none the less, either must be considered in a secondary role on DraftKings, where they’re the two lowest priced pitchers on the board. One reason is the favorable environment in St Louis, a clear pitcher’s park in the cooler months of the season. Another is the fact that it’s hard to call any pitcher really safe today. Even Max Scherzer fails to fit that description in an elimination game against the Dodgers.

All that said, this is certainly not a spot to avoid batters either. RHBs were right around a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Keuchel this season, still with a 59.3 GB%, but much lower than LHBs (.277 wOBA, 70 GB%). The frightening thing here though, is that this St Louis lineup features just three batters above a .150 ISO vs LHP this year and also just three above a 97 wRC+. Tommy Edman (151 wRC+, .262 ISO) is just one of two above both and he’s batting seventh. The other, and clearly the most coveted batter in this lineup, is Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+, .298 ISO).

For the road team, Hudson’s splits have been even worse. LHBs are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA this year with a ground ball rate (50.2%) nearly 15 points lower. This makes Freddie Freeman (154 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP) the clear top bat here, but also adds value to cheaper bats in Nick Markakis (112 wRC+, .147 ISO), Matt Joyce (131 wRC+, .163 ISO) and Brian McCann (97 wRC+, .178 ISO), who has very similar numbers to Ozzie Albies against RHP (98 wRC+, .177 ISO) this year.

Dinelson Lamet recently made his first start since 2017 on July 4th after missing 22 months due to Tommy John surgery. Lamet is a talented young pitcher with a 4.60 ERA / 4.21 xFIP over 119 innings in his career, but is likely to be shaking off a good amount of rust as he works his way back. Lamet already had a control problem (4.22 BB/9) and pitchers often struggle with their command upon first returning from TJ. Lamet has always been a two-pitch guy (Fastball and slider) and does not have an out pitch vs. lefties, leading to a wide platoon split. For his career, Lamet has allowed a .366 wOBA to lefties as opposed to a .236 wOBA vs. righties. Freddie Freeman (.417 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Nick Markakis (.369), Ozzie Albies (.342) and Brian Mccann (.340) are all good left-handed options in the Braves order. Also in play are Ronald Acuna (.387), Josh Donaldson (.379) and Dansby Swanson (.365). Braves bats are pretty affordable across all sites besides slightly high prices on Freeman and Acuna. The Braves currently have a 4.50 implied line vs. Lamet and the Padres tonight in Petco.

Overall, Trevor Richards has a 4.02 ERA that has been suppressed by pitching half his games in Marlins park; he also has a 5.25 xFIP, 5.05 SIERA on the year with a 41.3% hard contact rate, 10.8% K-BB and 43.5% FB rate. Richards has been even worse over the past 30 days with a 5.20 ERA, 5.25 xFIP and 5.30 SIERA with a 8.3% K-BB. The Marlins also have a 5th worst 4.56 bullpen SIERA over the past 30 days. The Braves come into this game with a 2nd best 121 wRC+ over the past 30 days and have a number of good options in their lineup at home vs. Richards and the Marlins. Freddie Freeman (.418 xwOBA vs. RHP), Ronald Acuna (.383), Josh Donaldson (.376), Nick Markakis (.370), Dansby Swanson (.369), Ozzie Albies (.344), Brian McCann (.342) and Austin Riley (.318) make up the 8 hitters in the ATL lineup and all are in play this afternoon. Donaldson and Markakis stand out as the best values as they are both below $4.5K on Draftkings while Acuna, Swanson, Freeman and Riley are all $5k or more. Acuna has been their hottest hitter with a .402 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, while Austin Riley (.227) has cooled down after his hot start to the year. The Braves currently have a healthy 5.66 implied total vs. Richards and the Marlins today in Atlanta.

After a great year in his first year back in the States, Miles Mikolas has looked much more hittable in 2019. He has a 4.88 ERA / 4.46 SIERA with an 11.7% K-BB and 33.9% hard contact rate. Many of Mikolas’ numbers look almost identical to 2018: His K%, BB%, BABIP, hard and soft contact %, GB and FB% are all shockingly similar to 2019. His biggest issue has been home runs and louder contact overall, as he had just a 0.72 HR/9 in 2018 but has a 1.63 HR/9 this year. Statcast shows increases in aEV (up 2.5 MPH), barrel% (up 2.7%) and xwOBA (up .054) from 2018 to this year. The Braves have tons of pop vs. RHP in their projected lineup, with everyone besides Ozzie Albies having an xwOBA greater than .350 vs. RHP so far this year. Dansby Swanson looks like a great value, projected to bat 2nd at just $4k on Draftkings with a a.350 xwOBA vs. RHP. Josh Donaldson projects to hit 4th at $4.1k and has a .367 xwOBA vs. RHP. Freddie Freeman (.429 xwOBA vs. RHP this year) seems to be worth a shot at his price of $5.2k. He has been especially hot with a .473 xwOBA over the past 10 days, 2nd to only Austin Riley (.524). The Braves have a 4.23 implied total for this game which does feel a tad low.

The DraftKings main slate starts an hour earlier than FanDuel tonight, in order to include the Astros @ Indians. Houston has a 4.2 implied run line right in the middle of that board against Mike Clevinger, who has pitched into the eight inning in four of nine starts this year and has completed six in seven of his last eight. While he walked a total of 10 through his first six starts, he's walked four twice in his last three, but both his strikeout (24.3% vs 21.3%) and swinging strike (13% vs 11.7%) are up a bit over his season averages over the last 30 days. He's dominated RHBs to the tune of a .266 wOBA since last season, which depresses the value of the best Houston bats at high cost tonight. LHBs have a .325 wOBA against him over the same span, while xwOBA raises each side 20 to 30 points. The top five in the Houston order still have some appeal on a four game slate against a pitcher who has struggled with control both recently and in his career. Marwin Gonzalez (131 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the only LHB of that bunch and costs less than $3.5K on either site. Brian McCann (99 wRC+, .212 ISO) costs $200 more, two spots further down in the order.

James Shields remains on track and starts against the Astros tonight two days after throwing an inning in relief. While he's been moderately effective against RHBs, lefties have torched him for a .370 wOBA or better every season since 2015, including this one so far. He's amazingly allowed just a single home run, but he also struck out just a single batter over his first two starts. He compiled six last time out, but that came with five walks. The Astros have dropped a struggling Alex Bregman (-1 wRC+ last seven days, 108 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) to sixth in the lineup. Although carrying a 5.01 implied run line, the top of the Houston lineup remains predominantly right-handed and quite expensive on a night where players may be paying up for pitching. Josh Reddick (134 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is a bit more affordable and perhaps should be the primary target in this offense tonight. Brian McCann (108 wRC+, .198 ISO) is playable behind the plate, batting seventh.

In a vacuum, Minnesota is actually a much better run scoring environment than Houston, though it's not as power friendly and temperatures near freezing could make that even more so tonight. While Lance Lynn doesn't miss as many bats as he used to (19.7 K% last season), RHBs did have a .283 wOBA and 28 Hard% against him last year. LHBs had much more success (.353 wOBA, 30.4 Hard%), but the Astros have only three of those in the lineup tonight and one of them bats ninth. Marwin Gonzalez (150 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP since 2017) should be the primary play here, below $4K on either site with key RHBs perhaps being too expensive in this spot (above $5K on DK). Brian McCann (104 wRC+, .188 ISO) is a reasonably priced Catcher option ($3.4K or less on either site). Josh Reddick is sadly absent from the lineup.