Buck Farmer Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Buck Farmer will open for the Reds Friday.

Five of 14 teams have an implied run line above 4.8 runs on Monday night. While not loaded with top end arms, there are not a lot of pitchers players would normally attack either. Oakland (5.11) and Miami (5.01) are the only two offense who reach the five run mark and while Buck Farmer has certainly struggled since being recalled (14 runs in 17.2 innings - 16 Ks, 9 BBs), his hard hit rate has been below 25% in three of his four starts, while he struck out seven last time out (his first start with more than three over this span). While he has just a 29.2 GB% against LHBs this year, he's held them to an 18.8% hard contact rate. RHBs have a .349 wOBA, 35.8 GB% and 35.2 Hard%, which projects well for Khris Davis (135 wRC+, .303 ISO vs RHP). This Oakland lineup strikes out a ton too though (25.3% on the road, 24.7% vs RHP). It's perfectly acceptable to lead an all out assault on Matt Harvey tonight though. The Mets have been kind enough to offer him up to the Marlins upon their return home from Irma, the same as they did in Houston on returning home from the destruction caused by his namesake. The majority of the power for the Marlins is right-handed, and those batters are still playable against Harvey (RHBs .328 wOBA, 51.7 GB%, 31.4 Hard%), but LHBs have been a severe area of weakness for him this year (.394 wOBA, 34.7 GB%, 36 Hard%). Hard hit rates above ground ball rates are usually a recipe for disaster when lacking an elite strikeout rate. Justin Bour (130 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP), Giancarlo Stanton (144 wRC+, .326 ISO, 40 FB% vs RHP) and Christian Yelich (123 wRC+, .169 ISO vs RHP) would appear the top plays here with only Bour below $4K on either site.

The red hot Arizona Diamondbacks have the top run projection on a full slate with 5.92 runs at home against Jordan Lyles, nearly a half run above the next highest team, the Yankees at 5.54 in Texas. Toronto has an implied run line of 5.45 against Buck Farmer and then five more teams are between 4.9 and 5.11 runs. Lyles walked four of 23 batters in his first start of the season last week. He's allowed 11 HRs in 51 innings almost entirely out of the bullpen for the Rockies before landing with the Padres last month. RHBs have a .355 wOBA against him, but LHBs have a .424 wOBA and 42.5 Hard%. Heavy Diamondback exposure is heavily recommended in cash games and may even be affordable if going with one of the lesser established, recent breakout arms tonight. Normally, RHBs against Martin Perez in Texas would be a great proposition. They have 17 of his 18 HRs allowed this year and 10 of his 11 allowed at home with a 2.3 K-BB%, 40.9 GB% and 36.1 Hard% this year. However, Perez has a 50.4 GB% and 22.7 Hard% overall this past month, in which RHBs have just a 23.7 Hard% with a 52.7 GB%. Despite leaning predominantly RH this season, the Yankees have just a league average 96 wRC+ vs LHP. Some of the more powerful bats certainly remain in play in a this great hitting environment, but perhaps they'd serve players better as one-offs rather than full stacks. Buck Farmer put up a strong 16.0 K-BB% at AAA this season and has a 17.4 K-BB% through six major league starts. However, most of that production came from his first two starts (13 IP - 0 ER - 3 BB - 16 K - 46 BF). His line since: 13.1 IP - 21 ER - 6 HR - 5 BB - 12 K - 69 BF. He has a 31.3 GB% and 34.7 Hard% over these last four starts with batters from either side of the plate tattooing him.

With sample sizes ranging from 123-376 plate appearances against righties in 2017, Chicago's starters have had plenty of opportunities at the dish - most of them simply haven't done much with their chances. That said, the meat of the order - Jose Abreu (.216 ISO, .336 wOBA, 17.6% K% vs RHP this season), Avisail Garcia (.195 ISO, .342 wOBA, 21.1% K%), and Matt Davidson (.285 ISO, .326 wOBA, 41.3% K%) - have been solid and could pose a problem for opposing pitcher Buck Farmer. Through 40 RHB faced, Farmer has given up a .408 wOBA to right-handers, along with a 42.9% Hard% and .316 ISO. On the positive side, he has a 25.0% strikeout rate against right-handed opponents. Although he's only expected to face three lefties, he has an impressive 34.3% K% through 35 LHB faced. While Farmer has a small sample through just four starts this season, he's posted a promising 15.0% SwStr%. Additionally, his 3.26 SIERA is way better than his 6.62 ERA, which tanked over his last two outings - he didn't make it out of the third inning in either contest, allowing 13 total runs in the process. Afterwards, he was sent down to the minors and hasn't pitched in the bigs since June 18th. He fit in 11 starts during that period, racking up at least six strikeouts on seven occasions. While undoubtedly risky, against this weak White Sox lineup with a 24.3% strikeout rate, the upside is there. In his first start this season, which coincidentally was against CHW, he fanned 11 in 6.1 shutout innings. With plenty of other SP2 options available in a similar price range, the $6.4k Farmer (on DraftKings) will surely go low-owned, making him an interesting high-risk GPP value option given the spot.

The Houston Astros have a 128 wRC+ on the road (1st), 113 wRC+ vs LHP (2nd), 163 wRC+ over the last week (2nd) and 127 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers (1st). It's no surprise that the RotoGrinders Player Projections point towards George Springer and Jose Altuve as the top overall hitters against in Kansas City tonight, even though the Astros are only eighth with a 4.78 implied run line tonight. Considering how expensive these players are, players may need to think twice about the cost of rostering them, but on the other hand, the Vegas line may lower their ownership rates. Players looking for more value, might consider Colby Rasmus against Mike Pelfrey on DraftKings (projected for 2.74 Pt/$/K) or Chris Young (4.16 Pt/$/K), who costs just $200 above the minimum on FanDuel against C.C. Sabathia. For those paying up for their SP1 on DraftKings, Buck Farmer projects for an unprecedented 4.04 Pt/$/K at minimum cost and could fill out the second spot on your roster.

Buck Farmer has been able to miss some bats in long relief out of the bullpen (23.2 K%, 11.4 SwStr%) and should be able to get through around 80 pitches in his first start of the season, throwing 75 pitches last time out. It’s questionable whether that will get him through more than five innings though with a 14.8 BB%, though he did show much improved control (6.6%) at AAA this season though. A minimum price tag for an arm that may be able to generate some whiffs might even be enough on DraftKings against an offense that has drastically under-performed on the road (84 wRC+). They have been strong against RHP though (104 wRC+) and LHBs do have a .438 wOBA, 33.6 Hard% against Farmer in his young career (164 PAs). Carlos Santana (141 wRC+, .284 ISO vs RHP this season) is the top bat in this lineup vs RHP. While other Cleveland bats project fairly well here in a lineup projected for 4.6 runs, similarly high price tags, while only Tyler Naquin (138 wRC+, .236 ISO) also has a wRC+ above 125 or ISO above .200 against RHP this season from the left side, might not make them very cost efficient.