Byron Buxton Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Friday night’s six game slate features six offenses separating themselves from the rest of the board at 4.9 implied runs or more with no other offense the 4.5 run team total barrier. This slate features a game at Coors and Spenser Watkins, whom it is like a game at Coors when facing. While the Rockies actually top the board at 5.88 implied runs, PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) aren’t as smitten with the home team as they are the road team in this affair (Diamondbacks 5.62). Three Arizona hitters project as top 10 bats on either site tonight. Antonio Senzatela has just a 9.8 K% over eight home starts this year. With a modest 44.3 GB% and 90.5 mph EV, Senzatela has allowed just 11 barrels (5.1%) with just four leaving the yard (6.9 HR/FB). Neither of those things seems very sustainable. While a .399 BABIP may regress the power numbers against him should increase. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .332 and .349 wOBA and xwOBA against Senzatela this year. Ketel Marte (112 wRC+, .159 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Alek Thomas (119 wRC+, .206 ISO) and Christian Walker (91 wRC+, .203 ISO) are all top of the board projected bats tonight.

That’s not the only offense current projections love though, as we also find three Twins (5.47) among the top 10. Byron Buxton (154 wRC+, .342 ISO) is the top projected bat on the board. Over 35 innings, Spenser Watkins has just a 1.3 K-BB%, 90.1 Z-Contact%, 90.6 mph EV and 9.7% Barrels/BBE. He hasn’t gone beyond the fifth inning in any of nine starts without an estimator below five and a half. LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, while RHBs are above .400. Buxton is joined atop the projections by Carlos Correa (135 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Jorge Polanco (126 wRC+, .225 ISO). Top of the board projections fill out merely with three AL MVP candidates in Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and Yordan Alvarez.

A surprisingly large either nine or 10 game Thursday night slate also only features one offense clearly above four and a half implied runs. The Dodgers (5.47 team total) separate themselves from the board by nearly a full run. That said, while the Dodgers aren’t the only team to feature multiple top 10 projected bats by Plate IQ tonight, they are one of just two offenses to do so and perhaps it’s a surprise that the Dodgers only feature two. Freddie Freeman (144 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP since last season) is the third best projected hitter on the board with Trea Turner (122 wRC+, .161 ISO) just a bit further down. While batters from either side of the plate exceed a .325 wOBA against Humberto Castellanos since last season, LHBs (.345) have a much larger advantage than RHBs (.302) by xwOBA. Castellanos doesn’t miss a lot of bats (17.4 K%, 8.3 SwStr%), but has otherwise been fairly effective under new pitching coach Brent Strom (6.0 BB%, 6.3% Barrels/BBE). While his 3.87 xERA is the only estimator below four, he doesn’t have one above four and a half either. In other words, he may be slightly under-valued here for those considering a Dodger fade.

The Twins are second on the board with a 4.53 team run total. While it looked early on that Daniel Lynch might be evolving, recent struggles now present a pitcher with just a 10.7 K-BB%, 91.2 mph EV and 9.9% Barrels/BBE. While seven of his 10 barrels have come in just two starts, so have 14 of his 31 strikeouts and eight of his 15 walks, although not all in the same starts. It seems you never know what you’re going to get when Lynch takes the mound. The overall package right now is a 4.01 ERA that nearly matches his 4.00 xERA with all additional estimators more than one-third of a run higher. The Twins have the ability to and are expected to line up entirely right-handed against Lynch because batters from that side have a wOBA and xwOBA above .360 against him in his short career. Byron Buxton (187 wRC+, .357 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is the top projected bat on the board on Thursday. Carlos Correa (142 wRC+, .155 ISO) is also among the top 10. As usual when the Twins face a marginal LHP, there will be more discussion of their lineup among the top projected values as well.

One other interesting quirk among the top projected bats is that the Angels only feature Mike Trout (213 wRC+, .235 ISO vs LHP since last season) against Hyun-Jin Ryu (RHBs .327 wOBA, .332 xwOBA since LY). Ryu was at his best in his first COVID abbreviated season in Toronto, but injuries have slowed him down since. He’s started just four games this year, striking out 11 of 76 batters with a 92.6 mph Ev and a 45.9 GB% that would be his lowest since 2017. The elite control is still intact, as he’s walked just three and only one over his last three starts. Estimators are all more than a run below his 6.00 ERA, but also all above four. It is a rarity that Shohei Ohtani doesn’t join Trout among the top projected batters, but that’s not because Ryu is left-handed, but because Ohtani is pitching and not available as a hitter. However, Taylor Ward (168 wRC+, .174 ISO) has crushed the ball over the last 30 days with a wRC+ even higher than Trout over that span (241 to 211).

No single team reaches a five run team total on Thursday night’s six game slate, though three offenses clearly separate from the rest of the board, all within a 4.5 to 4.75 implied run range currently. We’re looking at the Phillies (4.75), hosting Taijuan Walker and the Mets, followed by the Twins (4.71), in Baltmore vs Spenser Watkins, and Astros (4.66) at home against Tarik Skubal. It’s difficult to say any of those spots are completely ideal to attack, only because Baltimore’s recent park alterations seem to have made a massive difference to the scoring environment.

Concerning some early afternoon batter projections (PlateIQ), which are fluid and always subject to change, you’ll find that eight of the top 10 overall projected hitter point totals come from those three lineups with only Manny Machado (vs Jesus Luzardo) and Cedric Mullins (vs Chris Archer) standing out. Byron Buxton (175 wRC+, .358 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Carlos Correa (127 wRC+, .213 ISO) are the top projected batters on the board. Spenser Watkins has estimators more than double his 2.55 ERA, as he’s walked as many as he’s struck out (eight) with a 90.3 mph EV. He’s kept more than half his contact on the ground (52.5%), but has just a .211 BABIP. Just two of his five barrels (8.5%) have left the yard. A 3.79 DRA is his only estimator below four and a half, so he’s certainly pitching above his head, whether it’s the park or not. RHBs own a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 against him since last year with 11 home runs 179 PAs. Jorge Polanco (125 wRC+, .232 ISO) joins them inside the top 10. There’s also the matter that Twins’ bats come in as four of the top five projected point per dollar values on FanDuel with a list that includes Correa, Jose Miranda ($2K), Luis Arraez (117 wRC+) and Gary Sanchez (.191 ISO). Nick Gordon (87 wRC+) and Trevor Larnach (107 wRC+) join Miranda ($2K) as top five projected values on DraftKings. Pricing makes Minnesota a very easy stack tonight on either site.

Jose Altuve (115 wRC+, .181 ISO vs LHP since LY) and Alex Bregman (126 wRC+, .150 ISO) are the top Houston projected bats, but Altuve is questionable tonight and while RHBs own a .338 wOBA (.366 xwOBA) against Skubal since last season, he’s changed his pitch mix this year to generate more grounders and fewer barrels, walks and strikeouts. Taijuan Walker makes his third start of the year, all against the Phillies, with an IL stint mixed in. While he had a near 40 point reverse split by actual results, Statcast has batters from either side within five points of a .325 xwOBA against him since last year. Bryce Harper (183 wRC+, .358 ISO vs RHP since last season), who has been hurting himself, Kyle Schwarber (156 wRC+, .362 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (138 wRC+, .249 ISO) all project as top of the board bats against him.

To say that Daniel Lynch has not immediately lived up to the prospect hype would be an understatement. With just a 7.8 K-BB% and 11.0% Barrels/BBE, his ERA and all non-FIP estimators are above five. He’s completed five innings in just five of his 11 starts. Furthermore, Lynch has displayed some significant platoon issues. RHBs own a Statcast verified .379 wOBA and .378 xwOBA against him. Nelson Cruz may be gone, but the Twins can still produce a lineup that smashes LHP. The projected lineup includes four batters exceeding a .225 ISO against LHP this season, including Jorge Polanco (119 wRC+, .230 ISO), Josh Donaldson (130 wRC+, .239 ISO), Ryan Jeffers (106 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Byron Buxton (141 wRC+, .269 ISO). Jeffers is the surprise here, as a bottom of the lineup catcher, costing just $2.3K on FanDuel. The other three project to comprise the top half of the lineup, along with Rob Refsnyder (139 wRC+, .369 xwOBA), who costs less than $3K on either site. The Twins have the second highest team total on the board at exactly five runs.

There’s also some value on the other side of this matchup too. Missing bats at a below average rate with just a 9.3 K-BB%, Griffin Jax has also dealt with contact profile issues, including a 31.9 GB% and 91.1 mph EV, resulting in 17 home runs (18.3 HR/FB) on 25 barrels (13.4%). A 5.12 SIERA is his top estimator by more than half a run. Batters from either side of the plate own a wOBA above .360 with exactly a .370 xwOBA against Jax. The Royals only have one really dangerous bat against RHP, Salvador Perez (114 wRC+ .240 ISO), but they have plenty of cheap, upper half of the lineup bats, potentially including Nicky Lopez (105 wRC+), Carlos Santana (91 wRC+, .166 ISO) and Andrew Benintendi (91 wRC+, .153 ISO) all for less than $3.5K on either site.

Byron Buxton hasn’t been on the field nearly enough this season, but when he has, he as raked. Buxton has a 207 wRC+ and .419 ISO vs same-handed pitching this season and is facing a pitcher with a reverse split this year. RHBs have a .361 wOBA (.368 xwOBA) against Zach Davies this year and LHBs haven’t done much worse (.332/.360). Two more things that make Buxton and extremely attractive lineup add tonight are that the Twins have the fourth highest implied run line on the board tonight (5.12) and Buxton costs just $3.2K on DraftKings. Even better, each of the first six batters in the projected lineup exceed a 110 wRC+ vs RHP this season and none cost more than $4.1K on DraftKings, making the Twins perhaps the ideal stack today. Things aren’t much more difficult on FanDuel, where Buxton and Jorge Polanco (129 wRC+, .223 ISO) are the only two batters in the projected lineup exceeding $3.3K. Prospective leadoff man, Luis Arraez (120 wRC+) can be had for $3K or less on either site. Although Zach Davies has a 26.1 K% over his last seven starts, he does so with just a 10.4 SwStr%, which is still more than a point improvement on his season rate. He also has a 6.88 ERA and 6.46 FIP with 12 home runs and 14 barrels (13.9%) over this span. Additionally, Davies is backed by a bullpen with the second worst ERA (7.33) and FIP (5.92) in the majors over the last 30 days.

Glenn Sparkman has had a pretty abysmal year, posting a 5.25 ERA, 5.50 xFIP and 5.43 SIERA with just a 12.8% K rate, 5.7% BB rate, 2.04 HR/9, a 41.2% Hard contact rate and a 7.3% SwStr. Sparkman has also allowed a .365 xwOBA, with a 7.8% barrel rate and an ugly 90.7 MPH aEV. The Twins have mashed RHP with a 5th best 113 wRC+ on the year, and have a number of good options in their lineup tonight. Nelson Cruz (.407 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Jorge Polanco (.366), Max Kepler (.364), Eddie Rosario (.344), Luis Arraez (.334), Miguel Sano (.330), Marwin Gonzalez (.322) and Byron Buxton (.309) are all good options in the projected order. Cruz has been by far their hottest hitter with a .488 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Max Kepler (.444) and Miguel Sano (.409). Most of these guys will cost $4.7k + on Draftkings, but Marwin Gonzalez ($3.5k) and Luis Arraez ($3.9k) are great value plays. The Twins have a 6.75 implied total tonight vs. Sparkman and the Royals.