Chad Bettis Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Chad Bettis is a pitcher we can target whether he’s at Coors or not. Since 2015 he has a career xwOBA allowed of .329, but owns a .336 xwOBA on the road. He owns reverse splits (.343 xwOBA vs. RHB since 2015, .314 vs. LHB) and actually does a nice job keeping the ball on the ground (49.7% career GB rate) but allows too much contact (career 16.3% K rate). The Giants don’t mash RHP but they do have plenty of value bats. Joe Panik (.315 xwOBA vs. RHP last year), Brandon Belt (.355), Evan Longoria (.306) and Brandon Crawford (.311) are all middle of the order bats tonight that can be had for $4k or less on Draftkings. Steven Duggar (.246 xwOBA vs. RHP last year) is leading off (why, Bochy?) and is intriguing given that it’s hard to find leadoff guys at just $3.6k. The Giants have a 4.24 implied run total vs. Bettis and the Rox tonight.

Chad Bettis is expected to be limited tonight. RHBs have a .363 wOBA against him this season and he's had a reverse split throughout his career. Even if Rhys Hoskins (138 wRC+, .286 ISO vs RHP) gets just a couple of shots at him, he's in a strong spot at Coors for a lineup at almost exactly five implied runs. Otherwise, the Rockies are going to mix and match, as this is an important game for them. Wilson Ramos (127 wRC+, .161 ISO) is the only other bat in the lineup above a 105 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Nobody else is above a .180 ISO. Considering the environment, at least the top half of the lineup is probably usable here, but as far as standouts, it's probably just Hoskins.

Players looking to drop down below the highest priced pitchers may find themselves struggling to locate high value arms in the middle or lower price ranges. Zack Godley isn't much less expensive than those arms, but may be the best players can hope for. His 2018 has not been as successful as his 2017 season, but it's been closest over the last month in which his strikeout rate has risen 25.6% with a 57.5 GB%, though he still has a 9.9 BB% and 41.1 Hard% over that span. He may be unworthy of his price tag tonight in a neutral matchup, but he's facing the Marlins (86 wRC+, 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP) in Miami. Players paying up for high priced pitching on DraftKings are also going to need lower priced compliments. For less than $7K on DraftKings, a few pitchers may fill that spot. Blaine Hardy ($6.6K) has pitched reasonably well for Detroit (3.75 FIP, .312 xwOBA) and is hosting an Oakland offense that's struggled with LHP (89 wRC+, 16.7 K-BB%). Steven Matz ($6.1K) is in a Coors bounce back spot and in fact, has faced many difficult lineups over the last month or so. Over those last six starts, his ground ball rate is up 54.1% and Nolan Arenado at Coors is one of just three HRs he's allowed. In one of the most negative run environments in baseball, he gets one of the coldest offenses on the board (31 wRC+, 26.3 K%, 6.7 HR/FB last seven days). Chad Bettis ($5.4K) has allowed five or more runs in five straight. The only game outside Coors in that span was in Texas. His strikeout rate is actually slightly up this month (19.4%). He’s been hit hard for sure, but his .343 wOBA over the last 30 days is the same as his season rate. Coors magnifies most flaws, while San Francisco masks them. The Giants have a 16.7 K-BB% vs RHP and 3.9 HR/FB over the last week. If absolutely necessary, Austin Bibens-Dirx ($4.6K) is not good and he is at home in the worst run environment on the board, but he's facing the Padres (72 wRC+, 20.5 K-BB% on the road, 81 wRC+, 18 K-BB% vs RHP).

Bettis comes into Saturday's matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks following three consecutive blowup home outings at Coors Field, as he has allowed at least five earned runs on each occasion and failed to strike out more than three hitters in all but one of those starts. Bettis had been a candidate for regression all year long prior to this most recent stretch, so it appears that some that regression has finally come to fruition, though it may be far from over with his 4.66 SIERA still more than a half run higher than his 4.06 ERA through 12 appearances this season. The low 16.0% strikeout rate is nothing new for Bettis, as his career mark is just 16.6%, but the elevated 7.5% walk rate certainly is uncharacteristic, especially over last season's pristine 5.5% walk rate, which has greatly contributed to his rising ERA and SIERA over the last month. Bettis has exhibited some slight reverse splits this season, so a right-handed hitter like Paul Goldschmidt (40.7% HH%, 0.217 ISO, 0.461 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) remains firmly in play for all formats and his projected value shouldn't be dinged just because he sacrifices the platoon advantage in this matchup. That said, Bettis is still more than attackable from the left-side of the plate as well, which makes Jake Lamb (0.250 ISO, 0.447 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017), Daniel Descalso (39.7% HH%, 0.205 ISO, 0.383 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017), and David Peralta (40.8% HH%, 0.374 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) the top Dodgers lefties to target. Meanwhile, Jon Jay and Alex Avila (53.3% HH%, 0.580 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) are certainly worthy options to round out a Diamondbacks stack in tournaments, especially Jay with his high 84.9% contact rate and above-average 40.1% hard-hit percentage at the top off the order, despite his other subpar advanced statistics this season, which keep him from being a viable one-off target given his inability to produce substantial upside without the assistance of his teammates more often than not.

Bettis comes into Sunday's matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers following two consecutive blowup home outings at Coors Field, as he allowed at least five earned runs on both occasions and failed to strike out more than three hitters in each start. Bettis had been a candidate for regression all year long prior to this most recent stretch, so it appears that some that regression has finally come to fruition, though it may be far from over with his 4.82 SIERA still more than a full run higher than his 3.68 ERA through 11 appearances this season. The low 15.2% strikeout rate is nothing new for Bettis, as his career mark is just 16.5%, but the elevated 8.2% walk rate certainly is uncharacteristic, especially over last season's pristine 5.5% walk rate, which has greatly contributed to his rising ERA and SIERA over the last month. Bettis has exhibited some slight reverse splits this season, so right-handed hitters like Chris Taylor (0.216 ISO, 0.423 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017), Matt Kemp (0.204 ISO, 0.455 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017), and Yasiel Puig (0.247 ISO, 0.429 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) all remain firmly in play for all formats and their projected value shouldn't be dinged just because they sacrifice the platoon advantage in this matchup. That said, Bettis is still attackable from the left-side of the plate as well, which makes Yasmani Grandal (0.229 ISO, 0.407 xwOBA, 39.1% HH% vs RHP since 2017) and Max Muncy (0.276 ISO, 0.541 xwOBA, 50.8% HH% vs RHP since 2017) the top Dodgers lefties to target, while Joc Pederson (0.198 ISO, 0.376 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) is also showing signs of breaking out of his slump, leaving him on the radar as a potential contrarian option for tournaments this afternoon.

As of this morning, there was some weather-related risk in Colorado, but it's going to be extremely tough for late slate players to get away from this game. The Giants (5.48) and Rockies (6.02) are the only two teams above a 4.6 implied run line on this four-game board. The Giants throw a predominantly right-handed lineup at a pitcher (Chad Bettis) who struggles more with same-handed bats (.336 wOBA since last season). None the less, Brandon Belt (156 wRC+, .424 xwOBA, .283 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is still a great overall option in this park on a night where his high price tag shouldn't matter much. Gorkys Hernandez (103 wRC+, .104 ISO) and Andrew McCutchen (127 wRC+, .176 ISO) are both great overall and top value plays at the top of the order for $4K or less. Theoretically, the Rockies should smash southpaw Andrew Suarez (RHBs .428 wOBA, .413 xwOBA, 49.3 Hard%). Nolan Arenado (213 wRC+, .450 xwOBA, .350 ISO), Trevor Story (155 wRC+, .340 ISO) and Chris Iannetta (102 wRC+, .184 ISO) are all premium plays, while Charlie Blackmon (141 wRC+, .207 ISO) hits same-handed pitching awfully well.

David Price, Jeff Samardzija, Cole Hamels, and Chris Archer are the only pitchers on the board to average six innings or more per start over the last calendar year. None of them have reached that level this season. In fact, Samardija is one of three guys (Andrew Triggs and Eric Lauer) averaging less than five innings per start. The highest average innings per start this year belong to Kevin Gausman, Chad Bettis, Matt Boyd, and James Shields. Expect to see a lot of bullpens tonight. With Eric Lauer averaging a board low four innings per start, the San Diego bullpen could see the most work, but they've actually been one of the top units in the league (2.1 fWAR, 3.24 FIP, 16.7 K-BB% are all top six marks). They are the only active bullpen tonight which can make such a claim, though the pen has been a source of strength for the Red Sox (2 fWAR, 3.45 FIP, 17.7 K%), Pirates (1.6, 3.19, 16.1%) and Mariners (1.1, 3.91, 18.2%) as well. On the other end, the A's (4.48) and White Sox (4.16) have the lowest active bullpen FIPs tonight. Both have bottom eight K-BB% marks as well. The Tigers have a FIP above four (4.07) with the second worst K-BB (10.3%) in the majors, but Boyd has been working deep into games, as mentioned. With Max Fried a last minute replacement, who hasn't reached six innings in any outing at any level this year, the Atlanta bullpen should be noted as well. They have a 3.71 FIP, but with a 10.8 K-BB% that's third worst in baseball.

Chad Bettis has a 2.08 ERA this season, but all three estimators (SIERA, xFIP and FIP are more than two runs above that due to a .224 BABIP and 89.7 LOB%. Vegas is not fooled. The Brewers have a 5.52 implied run line that's third best on the board, but an additional consideration is that his ground ball rate is down to 43.7% from a career rate just below 50% before the season started. This is a concern. He's kept his reverse split. Right-handed batters have hit the ball on the ground just 40% of the time with a 37.5 Hard%. Players are going to liberally play the top four in the order and those are all fine plays, even the lefties in this park. It's not like he's dominated them (.320 xwOBA since last season). Jesus Aguilar is the value play here. He costs less than $4K on either site and leads all right-handed batters with in wRC+ (117) and ISO (.227) against same handed pitchers over the last calendar year.

The San Diego Padres have a team 46 wRC+ over the last week with an astounding 34.1 K%. To that, they add a 27.7 K% and 84 wRC+ against RHP. Not very encouraging for a team with a 4.77 implied run line tonight. Nor can players rely on Chad Bettis and his 15.5 K%. His 1.44 ERA is pumped by a .217 BABIP and 95.2 LOB%. His career has resulted in some strange platoon splits, where he's actually been better at home (4.28 FIP) and against LHBs (.320 wOBA, 53.5 GB%). Right-handed hitters have a nearly 50 point higher wOBA and eight point lower ground ball rate. Christian Villanueva (153 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP career, 278 wRC+, 43.8 Hard% last seven days) becomes the most interesting hitter here at a cost of exactly $4K on both sites. Additionally, Wil Myers (108 wRC+, .223 ISO since last year) has hit same handed pitching well too with a stark $1.6K price discrepancy between sites. Eric Hosmer (146 wRC+, .189 ISO) is playable in this environment, but may end up a bit over-owned for all of the ground balls he's likely to produce in this matchup. Francy Cordero (107 wRC+, .258 ISO, 45.6 Hard% vs RHP career) may be the more interesting left-handed bat here for $500 less on DraftKings.