Chase Anderson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Miami is a fantastic spot to look for cheap GPP pitching tonight. Chase Anderson has is a marginal or even below average arm with a 13 K-BB%, 13.8 HR/FB, 36.8 GB%, 4.58 ERA, 4.80 SIERA, 4.90 DRA and .323 xwOBA. Nothing at all sticks out about him and to further complicate matters, he hasn’t exceed 20 batters in four starts, completing five innings just once. However, he has just the type of profile that would benefit most from the park bump here and the matchup is the real appeal here, possibly the best park adjusted one on the board. The Marlins have a team 76 wRC+, 25.3 K% and 11.1 HR/FB vs RHP. While the workload makes him a more difficult roster on FanDuel, a $6K price tag on DraftKings makes him a nice complement to a higher priced arm.

Elieser Hernandez has similar below average estimators (4.65 SIERA, 5.29 DRA) with a 5.23 ERA, but there’s also some upside here. His 14.6 K-BB% is actually better than Anderson’s and despite the 18.4 HR/FB and 9.5% Barrels/BBE, Hernandez has generated an 85.6 mph aEV with a .306 xwOBA that’s 50 points below his actual results. He too, has just a 34.6 GB%, which will lead to more Barrels, but the park should help him out probably a bit more than it has. While the Brewers certainly have far more power than the Marlins, they strike out just as often vs RHP (25%), while Hernandez costs $400 more than Anderson on DraftKings and has completed six innings in four of his last six starts.

Chase Anderson was hammered for five runs in four innings, including two HRs at Wrigley last time out and gets a chance at redemption here. Anderson is a pitcher with pronounced reverse splits. Over the last 12 months, RHBs have a .389 wOBA (.368 xwOBA), 45.8 Hard% and 37.9 GB%. He’s facing a lineup with quite a bit of RH in a power friendly park. An implied run line of 4.58 places the Cubs in the middle of the board tonight. The bats to consider are Nick Castellanos (117 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Kris Bryant (114 wRC+, .197 ISO), Javier Baez (103 wRC+, .227 ISO) and Willson Contreras (111 wRC+, .221 ISO). Each of these guys are capable of taking Anderson deep and if there’s concern about facing Hader later in the game, he’s been HR prone as well, allowing nine HRs to 183 RHBs faced.

Although he is pitching in hitter-friendly Miller Park tonight, Chase Anderson is way too cheap on both Draftkings ($6000) and Fanduel ($6300) tonight vs. the D-Backs. Anderson has regressed a bit in 2019, posting a 4.54 ERA with a 5.22 xFIP and 4.77 SIERA. He has maintained a respectable 21.5% K rate though and does have a career best 10.9% SwStr. The D-Backs have just an 88 wRC+ with a 21.5% K rate vs. RHP on the year. Their projected starting lineup contains just 3 batters (Alex Avila, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte) who have an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .325 on the year. Anderson has actually shown a reverse platoon split; since 2017, he owns a 22.3% K rate and .276 xwOBA allowed vs. lefties, compared to a 20.8% K rate and .339 xwOBA allowed vs. righties. Working to Anderson’s advantage, the D-Backs project to have 6 left-handed batters in their lineup tonight. Anderson should also have the benefit of one of the best pitch framers in the game in Yasmani Grandal, as well as pitcher friendly umpire Mike Everitt calling balls and strikes. Anderson projects as one of the best PTS/$ pitchers on the slate and makes a lot of sense to use in both cash and GPPs given his price and matchup tonight. The D-Backs currently have an implied total of 4.28.

Chase Anderson is $6.5k or less on both major sites tonight and makes some sense at SP if you want to save salary to stack Coors or another high-salary stack. Making 12 of 17 of his appearances as a starter this year, Anderson has pitched to a 4.32 ERA, 4.64 xFIP and 4.42 SIERA with a 23.2% K rate and 8% walk rate. He also has a .329 xwOBA allowed with a solid 6.7% barrel rate and 86.5 MPH aEV. Anderson’s four-seamer has increased by 1 MPH this year and he’s using it a bit less; he’s subsequently increased the use of his changeup and cutter which have historically been more effective pitches for him in terms of xwOBA allowed. Though Anderson gets this start in hitter-friendly Miller Park, he gets a matchup with the Giants who have just an 81 wRC+ vs. RHP on the year. The Giants have one of the lowest homerun rates vs. RHP at just 2.9%, making it a bit easier to stomach rostering Anderson in launchpad Miller park. The Giants currently have just a 3.96 implied line vs. Anderson tonight. On a slate that is shaky at SP, Anderson projects to be one of the better PTS/$ pitchers.

Although a full one-third of the board (10 teams) are implied for at least five runs on a night where there’s good hitting weather across the league, Cincinnati is the only park outside Coors where both teams reach that mark. In fact, both the Brewers and Reds are at exactly five runs currently, making this an affair where players should look for some fireworks.

Chase Anderson has a 24.3 K% on the season with an 81.5 Z-Contact%. His 37.4 GB% could be a problem here, though he’s managed contact well (86.1 mph aEV, 31.5% 95+ mph EV are both top three on the slate). His 4.42 ERA is in line with most estimators, aside from a more optimistic 3.86 DRA. Anderson has a substantial reverse split (RHBs .366 wOBA, .379 xwOBA last calendar year, LHBs .280 & .278), so it’s guys like Eugenio Suarez (101 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who has a team leading 241 wRC+ over the last week, and Nick Senzel (84 wRC+, .187 ISO) that players should be looking at if the Reds have the foresight to push the latter towards the top of the lineup tonight.

On the other side, Tanner Roark has a 3.36 ERA with a matching FIP, but all of his other estimators are a full run higher due to an 8.1 HR/FB that seems unsustainable in this park and run scoring environment, especially with an 89.1 mph aEV. In fact, the regression has already begun with five HRs over his last five starts. Roark has a more standard platoon issue. LHBs have a .353 wOBA and xwOBA over the last calendar year, while RHBs have a .279 and .284 mark. That bodes extremely well for a lineup full of powerful LHBs in Yasmani Grandal (138 wRC+, .257 ISO), Christian Yelich (198 wRC+, .377 ISO), Mike Moustakas (113 wRC+, .249 ISO) and Eric Thames (120 wRC+, .254 ISO).