Chris Tillman Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

When players see the Kansas City Royals with the second highest run line on the board (5.33), above even one of the teams playing at Coors tonight, the thought might be that there's some mistake. The mistake is that Chris Tillman is still starting major league games. He has a board worst .455 xwOBA and 5.5 SwStr%, while allowing at least four runs in all five starts against major league lineups this season (Detroit doesn't count). Batters from either side have raked above a .390 wOBA and xwOBA with a hard hit rate above 38% since last season. Mike Moustakas (130 wRC+, .286 ISO), Lucas Duda (128 wRC+, .279 ISO), Salvador Perez (98 wRC+, .198 ISO) and Whit Merrifield (102 wRC+, .147 ISO) are the average or better hitters against RHP over the last calendar year. All have at least a 110 wRC+ and 31 Hard% over the last week too. Alcides Escobar (60 wRC+) and Cheslor Cuthbert (56 wRC+) are probably the only Royals worth excluding here.

The Tigers made Chris Tillman look like a Cy Young candidate for seven one hit innings and optimistically, one can see 10 strikeouts vs just three walks over his last two starts, but he allowed three HRs to Cleveland two starts back and has failed to hold the opposition below four runs in four of his five starts. He has a total of just 13 strikeouts this year (5.8 SwStr%) with a .479 xwOBA (91.4 mph aEV, 11.4% Barrels/BBE, 51.4% 95+ mph EV). The Angels have a 5.16 implied run line that's second on the board in a negative run environment. This calls for heavy exposure to the stars of a stars and scrubs lineup, though players must realize they certainly won't be the only ones on Los Angeles bats tonight. Batters from either side are above a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against Tillman since last season. Even Ian Kinsler (83 wRC+, .147 ISO vs RHP since 2017) and Albert Pujols (86 wRC+, .172 ISO) at reasonable costs can be sprinkled in with Mike Trout (189 wRC+, .351 ISO), Justin Upton (113 wRC+, .227 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (211 wRC+, .410 ISO). Andrelton Simmons (110 wRC+, .155 ISO) and Luis Valbuena (96 wRC+, .228 ISO) are viable as well.

Chris Tillman has an 8.09 FIP and paralyzing .479 xwOBA. One would hope that Detroit (99 wRC+, 18.7 K% vs RHP) would offer a low cost stacking opportunity tonight. That does not appear the case. Tiger bats are more moderately priced than we'd probably like to see. Miguel Cabrera (85 wRC+, .149 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is a tough pay up, but does have a 222 wRC+ and 61.1 Hard% over the last week. Jeimer Candelario (132 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (103 wRC+, .186 ISO) are other fairly expensive bats here, but also the only ones above a 91 wRC+ or .153 ISO against right-handers since last year.

The only reason to suspect that the Red Sox might not demolish Chris Tillman tonight is if they might still be celebrating punishing Yankee pitching this week. A 5.97 implied run line is more than a half run above any other team tonight. Batters from either side exceed a .390 wOBA against Tillman since last season and his xwOBA splits confirm the same with a hard hit rate above 35% either way. J.D. Martinez (141 wRC+, .340 ISO, 49.6 Hard% vs RHP since last season) has an overall 81.8 Hard% over the last seven days. A fun stat comes from Baseball Savant's Darren Williams this morning in which he tweets that Mookie Betts 106 wRC+, .189) is already 36% of the way to his 2017 Barrels total with a launch angle that is up 10 degrees.

Carlos Correa (146 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP since last season) is back in the lineup after leaving with an injury last night. In fact, the Astros employ the exact same lineup they used to assault Chris Tillman last night and it should be much the same result against Mike Wright, who has some similarly horrible contact rates last season via Statcast (88.8 mph aEV, 8.5% Barrels/BBE, 39.4% 95+ mph EV) in 25 innings, all out of the bullpen. While LHBs have a career .402 wOBA against him, RHBs have hit him well too (.335 wOBA) with batters from either side hitting 13 HRs with a ground ball rate around 40%. Every bat in this lineup is a viable choice, with at least a 107 wRC+ and .170 ISO against RHP since the start of last season. The only exception is Derek Fisher (86 wRC+), who has a 46.8 Hard% against RHP since last year. The top six, aside from Alex Bregman (108 wRC+, .172 ISO) all boast a 130+ wRC+ and .180+ ISO against RHP. The chalk paid off last night and Houston is again likely to meet their 5.14 implied run line.

The Houston Astros own a board leading 5.66 implied run line tonight with only one other offense (Toronto) even above five runs. Inexpensive pitching should allow players to stack Astros with impunity (though it may be a bit more difficult on DraftKings). While it's possible injury can be to blame for some of Chris Tillman's struggles last year, he is worst on the board in several key Statcast metrics, including xwOBA (.398) aEV (89.6 mph), and 95+ mph EV (40.2%) and no other pitcher is even close to him in any of those metrics. Further, he's also worst on the board in terms of Z-O-Swing rate (48.9%) a measure that shows us that batters were able to lay off pitches out of the zone and punish strikes against him last season. Jose Altuve (161), Marwin Gonzalez (151), Carlos Correa (146), George Springer (130) and Josh Reddick (130) all have punished RHP to the tune of a 130 wRC+ or better since last season. All have an ISO above .180 against them as well (Reddick the only one below .200). Few players may realize that Houston has been one of the most negative run scoring environments in recent years because the Astros have been so good offensively. They owned a 121 wRC+ at home and 122 wRC+ vs RHP last season, both easily best in the majors.

The Rays are not one of the five teams projected above five runs tonight, but they're closest to it among those that are not (4.94 implied runs). While players don't necessarily need to stack Tampa Bay bats Ian Kennedy is someone players might want a lot of exposure against tonight outside of Coors. He's allowed multiple HRs in three straight starts, the last two at home. His 89.8 mph aEV is second highest on the board. Jose Urena is a pitcher that can just about never be used, but is not always someone to attack with just an 85.4 mph aEV. He's had a hard hit rate above 35% and a below average GB% in three of his last four starts though. Lucas Sims has an 83.9 mph aEV that's lowest on the board through five starts. While there's also a tremendously small sample size caveat, note just a small difference in wOBA allowed (.358 vs RHBs, .346 vs LHBs) despite a large gap in contact quality (38.6 Hard% vs RHBs, 20% vs LHBs). The three lowest rates of exit velocity above 95 mph tonight are Mike Montgomery (27.8%), Jhoulys Chacin (28.3%) and Trevor Williams (28.8%), none among the top pitchers on tonight's slate. While Chacin is facing the Giants, he has a 12.9 BB% and 30.9 Hard% over his last six starts. Another pitcher that players should be all over though, is Chris Tillman, who has allowed 18 HRs over his last 54 innings and has the highest average exit velocity on the board (89.9 mph). For more on which batters are making the hardest contact and which pitchers are allowing it, premium subscribers should check out the daily Trendspotting article.

Under conditions where it may barely be considered humane to play baseball in, the Texas Rangers have the top implied run line tonight at 6.15 runs when the host the Orioles. While Chris Tillman pitched six innings of one run ball against them two starts back, he walked four with just three strikeouts and is going to be contending with 100 degree temperatures tonight. The same conditions apply to a Baltimore offense facing a contact managing Andrew Cashner (3.6% Barrels/BBE), who has just a 1.5 K-BB%. Though the Orioles don't have many LHBs, players should rightfully continue to attack with the likes of Seth Smith (249 wRC+ last seven days) and Chris Davis (55.6 Hard% last seven days) against Cashner's 32.4 Hard% 37 GB%, and 0.0 K-BB% vs LHBs this year. The Orioles (5.35) are one of eight teams projected between five and six runs tonight, the most interesting of which has to be the Indians (5.9). Over the last two months, RHBs have a .494 wOBA with 13 HRs and a 40.6 Hard% against him. Edwin Encarnacion has a 229 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week and has three career HRs with a 100.6 mph aEV (seven BBEs) in 25 PAs against Holland. Considering the punishment being inflicted, any Cleveland batter who attempts to come to the plate right-handed should be played tonight (and perhaps they all should). This includes switch hitters like Francisco Lindor (136 wRC+, .191 ISO vs LHP this year) and Jose Ramirez (123 wRC+, .194 ISO vs LHP this year), but players can also save salary with Austin Jackson (168 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP this year) and Yan Gomes (136 wRC+, .275 ISO vs LHP this year). Just remember that players using Danny Salazar are only allowed three additional Cleveland bats on FanDuel unfortunately.

Colorado is the only offense with an implied run line above six, nearly three quarters of a run higher than any other team tonight, though 12 of 24 tonight are at 4.78 runs or higher on a pitching deficient evening. Only four offenses have an implied run line below 4.36 in fact. Colorado may not necessarily be the chalk stack tonight though. They have the lowest wRC+ in the majors against RHP (76) with a 15.2 K-BB% and 9.1 Hard-Soft%. Meanwhile, they face a pitcher (Luis Perdomo), who has generated two-thirds of his contact on the ground. Even at Coors, ground balls don't leave the yard. In fact, at a very low cost and complimenting that ground ball rate with a nearly league average strikeout rate, there may be enough support to consider Perdomo, especially as a secondary option on DraftKings. Players may not otherwise need to differentiate their lineups much, though Houston Astros (5.49 implied runs) are sure to be popular against the LH Ariel Miranda, who has a career 5.0 K-BB% and 6.04 xFIP on the road since last season. Twenty-nine of his 32 career HRs surrendered have been hit by RHBs. George Springer (172 wRC+, .310 ISO vs LHP since last season) may and/or should be the most popular bat on the slate. He costs the same as Charlie Blackmon on FanDuel ($5.6K), but $500 less on FanDuel. If players are looking for a potential value play today and are willing to sacrifice Nolan Arenado, Matt Chapman may be worth a look at third base for $2.5K or less on either site. In a small sample, he has a 140 wRC+ and .333 ISO vs RHP with a 40.9 Hard% and 59.1% fly ball rate, while Jake Odorizzi has allowed RHBs a .338 wOBA and 37.5 Hard% since last season. In fact, he has failed to allow a HR just once this season and has allowed multiple HRs in four of his last seven. He's one of several pitchers who have been very home run prone recently on tonight's slate. Julio Teheran just snapped a nine game span where he allowed 15 HRs, Tom Koehler has allowed 12 in 10 starts, Josh Tomlin had allowed eight of his 17 on the year in five start stretch just prior to his last time out, and Chris Tillman has allowed 11 over his last seven starts.