Christian Arroyo Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

We can make this easy by suggesting that you don’t necessarily need to pay up for pitching tonight, which makes the need to filter the most value out of your bats less necessary. However, if you do feel like you need Justin Verlander in your lineup, FanDuel makes it a bit easier in that respect as well by posting the top Philadelphia bats too cheaply. Kyle Schwarber (134 wRC+, .339 ISO vs RHP this year), Rhys Hoskings (108 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (84 wRC+, .131 ISO) all double as top projected bats and top projected values on FanDuel. The Phillies have a team run total more than half a run higher than the next best team and Paolo Espino has allowed multiple home runs in four of his last six starts, while RHBs have a .360 wOBA and .351 xwOBA against him this year. All three are $3.5K or less with Castellanos the top projected value on the board for $2.5K.

DraftKings projections believe the Boston lineup is loaded with potential value. They have a 4.79 implied run line in Kansas City. All of sudden, Kris Bubic, who was getting lit up regularly until June, has thrown three straight Quality Starts against the Blue Jays, Rays and Yankees (20 IP – 5 ER). Basically, his strand rate and BABIP have done a complete about face. His 18.6 K% over the last month is the same as his 18.2% rate on the season and he’s still walking batters at a double digit clip and allowing barrels at just under a double digit rate. A 4.69 xFIP is his only estimator more than half a run removed from a 5.45 ERA. His strand rate is up to 67.8% and the BABIP down to .306. RHBs have a .310 wOBA and .340 xwOBA against him this year, while LHBs have been even better (.492 wOBA, .454 xwOBA). Christian Arroyo (82 wRC+, .180 ISO vs LHP this year) is the top projected DraftKings value for just $2K. Yolmer Sanchez and Kevin Plawecki have both done absolutely nothing with the bat in short samples this year, but cost the minimum as well. Jarren Duran (34 wRC+) hasn’t done much more, but bats leadoff for less than $3K. FanDuel projections suggest Bobby Dalbec (109 wRC+, .163 ISO) and Alex Verdugo (92 wRC+) are top values for less than $2.5K as well.

The great news, or maybe more aptly, convenient news for FanDuel players is that along with holding several of the top projected bats overall in their lineup, a pair of Toronto Blue Jays (who sit atop the board at 5.42 implied runs) also project as top 10 values. Projected to bat in the middle of the lineup, Teoscar Hernandez (106 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Alejandro Kirk (117 wRC+, .158 ISO) both cost less than $3K against rookie Elvin Rodriguez, whom RHBs have a .400+ wOBA and .350+ xwOBA against in a small sample.

The top projected point per dollar value on the FanDuel menu tonight is a Boston bat, who continue their seemingly month long west coast trip in Seattle tonight. Marco Gonzales has struck out more than two just five times in 11 starts with a high of six. He’s allowed a barrel in seven straight starts and 17 on the year, which is 8.7% of his contact, but seems like so much more with the lack of strikeouts (13.7%). RHBs own a wOBA and xwOBA within two points of .335 against him since last season. Christian Arroyo (102 wRC+, .184 ISO vs LHP since LY) has been finding himself in the leadoff spot against LHP with Kike Hernandez out and costs just $2.1K on FD, which makes him the top projected value on that board tonight. Bobby Dalbec’s power bat (125 wRC+, .256 ISO) is also among the top 10 projected values for less than $2.5K.

The top projected point per dollar value by PlateIQ on DraftKings is a Tampa Bay Ray against Devin Smeltzer. Six of his 10 strikeouts came in one start and he’s only been above his season 47.1 GB% in one of his five starts, while also only being below an 88.8 mph EV in just one start as well. The heavy lifting in a 1.93 ERA has been done by a .217 BABIP, 86.2 LOB% and 5.7 HR/FB. RHBs have just a .236 wOBA, but .313 xwOBA against Smeltzer since last season. Harold Ramirez (126 wRC+, .130 ISO vs LHP since 2021) projects to bat second for less than $2.5K, making him the top projected value on DraftKings. He also has a teammate among the top 10 projected values on DK in Vidal Brujan (65 wRC+), who costs just $2.2K.

One other offense places a pair of teammates among the top 10 projected values tonight on DK and that’s TJ Friedl (53 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) and Colin Moran (103 wRC+, .151 ISO), each costing the bare minimum ($2K) against rookie Andre Pallante, whose first start did not go so well. He walked four of 18 Cubs with just two strikeouts over 64 pitches. In 29.1 innings this year, he has just a 4.7 K-BB%, allowing just 3.2% Barrels/BBE, despite 45.2% of his contact being at least a 95 mph EV because 63.4% of it has been on the ground. Estimators run from a 3.51 xERA to a 4.04 xFIP, almost exclusively due to that elite ground ball rate, which he may not be able to carry over to a starting role. He actually has a very large reverse split over this small sample (RHBs .389 wOBA, .321 xwOBA – LHBs .205 wOBA, .287 xwOBA), but the projections like the two cheap lefties for more value than some higher priced RHBs, none the less.

Jose Berrios is mostly regarded as an ace, but there’s a few reasons to consider having some exposure to Rays’ bats against him tonight. Berrios has a mediocre 4.42 xFIP / 4.31 SIERA with a 17% k rate over the last 30 days. Berrios is also much worse on the road; in his career he has a .292 xwOBA allowed at home versus a .330 xwOBA allowed on the road. The Rays have the 4th best wRC+ in the league vs. RHP with a 117 mark and have a number of bats that are priced down for this matchup. Austin Meadows (.440 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Avisail Garcia (.410), Brandon Lowe (.355), Ji-Man Choi (.351) and Christian Arroyo (145 wRC+ in AAA this year) are all solid options that are in the top-5 of Tampa Bay’s order. With the exception of Meadows ($5.5k), all Rays’ hitters are $4.2k or less on Draftkings. Arroyo is just $2.6k and is a great value option. Mike Zunino (.316 xwOBA vs. RHP this year) and Willy Adames (.308) are also options and are both under $3.4k. The Rays have a 4.21 implied line vs. Berrios and the Twins Friday night.

While there are normally some small sample size kinks to be cautiously weighed when utilizing the RotoGrinders HR Predicoter (perhaps Christian Arroyo 9.91% at the top against Alex Wood), Aaron Judge in second place with a 6.79% HR rate projection is probably no mistake. Mat Latos has allowed 25 HRs in just under 200 major league innings since 2015 and Judge is tied for the major league lead (with Sano) in Barrels/BBE at 25.5%. We have to drop down a few more spots past Mancini (vs Sale), Thames (vs Martinez) and Gallo (vs Fiers) to get to someone who's been around the league for a while. Jedd Gyorko (6.14%) is probably in a better spot than most people realize. He has punished RHP to the tune of a 137 wRC+ and .317 ISO since last season, while RHBs have a .352 wOBA against Wily Peralta since 2015.

Players have to work through several small sample sizes in the top spots of the RotoGrinders HR Predictor to find Mike Moustakas leading all non-rookies or guys who didn't play in Korea last year with a 6.1% projected HR rate tonight. While Kansas City is not a power friendly park, the wind is blowing out to right tonight (according to Kevin's morning report) for his matchup with Dylan Covey, who has walked more batters than he's struck out and allowed three HRs over three starts. The young players above him are mostly there for good reason. While Christian Arroyo (11.55%) should probably be discarded against Clayton Kershaw, Cody Bellinger (15.02%) has massive power and has occasionally hit atop the lineup since being called up. Eric Thames (7.03%) leads the majors with 11 HRs and Aaron Judge (6.97%) tops pretty much every Statcast measure on fly balls, including most Barrels.