Christian Vazquez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Matt Harvey wasn’t awful in his first start for the Orioles (4.2 IP – 2 ER – 0 HR – 1 BB – 4 K – 21 BF) and that’s the most praise you’re going to get at this point. We’re talking about a pitcher who hasn’t had an ERA below 4.86 since 2015 and has exceeded a 7.7 K-BB% just once since 2016. He didn’t allow a Barrel in that first start either (16 BBE), despite a 90.2 mph EV. 2017 was the last time he had an EV below 90 mph. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Harvey since 2019. He is the pitcher to attack on this slate outside of Coors (and perhaps including it). While the absence of Xander Bogaerts weakens stacks, it’s not substantial, as just two of nine batters are below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019. It simply makes them more affordable with the removal of an expensive bat. Christian Vazquez moves up to the middle of the lineup and while he’s expensive (over $5K on DraftKings), he costs less than half of that on FanDuel, where Alex Verdugo is less than $3K as well.

Even in hitter friendly Fenway, this is a crazy implied total for a non-Coors game. The Red Sox will face Ty Blach, who had a 5.93 ERA / 5.44 xFIP with a 15.7% K rate over 91 innings in AAA this year. He has a 13.94 ERA and 7.37 xFIP in the Majors this year but in only 10 1/3 innings. After Blach is chased from the game, the Red Sox will get plate appearances vs. a bad Orioles ‘pen that has allowed a 4th worst .349 xwOBA over the past month. The Red Sox have a 3rd best 122 wRC+ over the past 30 days and have a lineup full of intriguing options in this matchup: JD Martinez (.497 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Sam Travis (.366), Xander Bogaerts (.357), Mookie Betts (.353), Andrew Benintendi (.336), Rafael Devers (.326) and Christian Vazquez (.313) are all good options in the Boston lineup. Travis is just $3.8k on Draftkings and seems like a nice value given his success against LHP this year. Martinez and Travis have been the Red Sox hottest hitters; they each have an xwOBA over .430 over the past 2 weeks. Betts, Devers, Bogaerts and Martinez will all cost upward of $5.3k on Draftkings while Benintendi costs $4.9k. Given the total, the prices seem more than fair for these guys and they will likely see decently high ownership across all contests.

The Red Sox are in Detroit tonight to face Gregory Soto and currently have a whopping 6.72 implied line. Soto has certainly been a pitcher to target with opposing bats so far this year, as he’s posted an 8.44 ERA, 6.33 xFIP and 6.03 SIERA with a 2.9% K-BB, 41.6% hard contact rate, 40.8% FB rate and just a 7.9% SwStr over 21 1/3 innings pitched. Soto has also allowed a .391 xwOBA, an atrocious 14.3% barrel rate and a 90.2 MPH aEV. Boston also projects to have plenty of plate appearances vs. the Tigers’ bullpen, who has also been terrible this year as they have a league-worst 4.70 SIERA from their relief pitchers. JD Martinez (.501 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Xander Bogaerts (.402), Andrew Benintendi (.357, Rafael Devers (.328), Christian Vasquez (.327), Mookie Betts (.310) and Michael Chavis (.307) are all solid options tonight. Jackie Bradley Jr. (.272) is another name to keep in mind as he’s really turned it around after a rough start; over the past month he has a .377 xwOBA and costs just $3.9k on Draftkings. Other nice values include JD Martinez at $4.8k, Andrew Benintendi at $4.3k, Christian Vasquez at $4.3k and Michael Chavis at $4.2k. Vasquez has actually been the Red Sox hottest hitter with a .408 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Expect Red Sox hitters to carry high ownership across all contests tonight.

Matt Boyd allowed two HRs in his last start, but it was his first multiple HR game of the season and he tied a season high, allowing four runs for only the third time this year. His HR/FB has decreased each year in the majors and he's able to support that with an 86.4 mph aEV that's best on the board tonight (his .297 xwOBA is behind only Gerrit Cole). Regardless, the Boston Red Sox (still without Mookie Betts) have a board high 5.32 implied run line. It's no doubt a difficult run environment and J.D. Martinez (164 wRC+, .430 xwOBA, .300 ISO, 52.8 Hard% vs LHP last calendar year) remains an elite bat, but Rafael Devers (129 wRC+, .188 ISO) is the only other batter in the lineup above a .150 ISO against southpaws over that span. His xwOBA (.301) is 66 points lower than his actual in these circumstances though, yet it's still the fourth highest mark in this lineup. Xander Bogaerts (121 wRC+, .362 xwOBA, .121 ISO) is certainly a usable bat at a tough position as well. He has a 200 wRC+ over the last week. Christian Vazquez (79 wRC+, .125 ISO) could serve as a punt catching option (312 wRC+ last seven days) for less than $3K on a small slate too, but Boyd may not be the punching bag Vegas expects him to be here.

Wei-Yin Chen has looked good in his last two starts (12.2 IP - 8 H - 3 ER - 1 HR - 3 BB - 11 K), which may be enough to make him a worthy candidate at a low cost in San Diego (89 wRC+, 18.5 K-BB% vs LHP). On the other hand though, this San Diego lineup contains some hitters who can mash left-handed pitching. Christian Villanueva (257 wRC+, .443 xwOBA, .561 ISO) and Hunter Renfroe (161 wRC+, .380 ISO, 53.6 FB%) have been two of the top bats in baseball against southpaws over the last calendar year. Jose Pirela (125 wRC+, .189 ISO) costs less than $3.5K on either site. Even Franmil Reyes has a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 against them with two HRs in 14 PAs.