Chris Paddack Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

High upside spots on the main slate tonight belong to Joe Ross (vs Reds), Triston McKenzie (at Tigers), Marcus Stroman (vs Rockies), German Marquez (at Mets), Mike Minor (at Rays) and Chris Paddack (at Brewers). Despite the marginal size of the slate, you can see there is no shortage of these spots. Most of the damage against Ross has come in just a couple of starts, but he has just a 20.5 K% and the Reds have a 110 wRC+ and 17 HR/FB vs RHP, even if six players in the projected lineup exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since last year. Ross also costs $8K on DraftKings. Triston McKenzie has a 30.6 K% and five of nine projected Tigers exceed a 24 K% vs RHP, three are above 30%. However, McKenzie has a higher walk rate (20.8%) than ground ball rate (17.4%) and has generated more Barrels (13) than ground balls (12).

The Mets are a new entrant on this list, but the lineup is completely depleted and includes five projected batters above a 24 K% vs RHP. Marquez has a .336 BABIP that might just be a part of the Coors experience (.313 career), but the strikeouts are increasing (23.9%, 12.9 SwStr%) and more than half his contact is on the ground (53.1%). He’s allowed just 5.4% Barrels/BBE. The value goes up on the road and especially in this spot in a great park against an empty lineup, though the 12.8 BB% is a concern in any park. Stroman actually has an above average swinging strike rate (11.9%) and that’s up even further over his last five starts (13.7%), though the actual strikeouts are more inconsistent from start to start. It’s nice to know there’s a chance though. A 53.6 GB% has allowed him to keep his Barrels/BBE reasonable (6.4%), despite a 91 mph EV. Estimators are about a run above his 2.73 ERA because five of 21 runs have been unearned. The Rockies have a 59 wRC+ and 7.7 HR/FB on the road with five of nine projected batters above a 24 K% vs RHP since 2020. Stroman and Marquez could be two of the top values, especially on DraftKings, where Marquez is less than $7K, except for the weather forecast, which Kevin currently has coded Orange.

Minor and Paddack get the dome treatment, so at least they don’t have to worry about conditions and while the Rays have a 30.5 K% vs LHP this year, what we do have to worry about with Minor is that they are also one of the hottest offenses in the league (134 wRC+, 12.9 BB%, 21.7 HR/FB last seven days). While strikeouts are up for Mike Minor over the last month (26.5%), the swinging strike rate is actually down to a paltry 9.9% over that span. All of his non-DRA are well below his 5.14 ERA (65.6 LOB%), but none are below four. Eight of 13 Barrels (9.6%) have left the yard. Minor costs less than $8.5K on either site and is viable due to the upside in this spot, but it does carry significant risk by almost every other aspect. Paddack has been a perfectly average pitcher for the Padres (21.9 K%, 11.5 SwStr%, 3.96 ERA, 3.96 xFIP, 3.91 DRA, 3.84 xERA) and perhaps that’s what he is, which is absolutely fine for our purposes here. The Brewers have a 77 wRC+ and exceed a 26 K% both at home and vs RHP this year. Five projected batters in their lineup tonight have struck out in more than 24% of plate appearances vs RHP since 2020. At less than $8K, Paddack would seem to have the highest floor among these pitchers, when considering all elements, including weather. One concern would be that Paddack completed six innings for just the first time last time out, but has gone beyond 90 pitches in three of his last six.

Chris Paddack has been about as locked in as it gets in home starts this year: he owns a 2.28 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, 27.1% K-BB and .215 xwOBA allowed in home starts compared to a 3.95 ERA, 4.69 xFIP, 15.7% K-BB and .335 xwOBA allowed in road starts. Paddack gets a home start tonight vs. the Rockies, who are also much worse on the road as they have a 71 wRC+ and 27.1% K rate in road games this year. The Rockies’ lineup has just one batter (Charlie Blackmon) who has a road xwOBA greater than .305 vs. RHP on the year. Paddack’s upside is capped a bit because the Padres will not likely not let him exceed 90-95 pitches, but his affordable pricing of $9600 on Draftkings and $8400 on Fanduel means he is still very much in play despite the pitch count concerns. Paddack will have a good shot at getting the ‘W’ as the Padres are -205 favorites in this game. The Rockies currently have just a 3.47 implied line.

Chris Paddack is in a fantastic spot at home against the Orioles (87 wRC+, 15.5 K-BB%), who have been showing a bit of life lately, but still carry a well below average offense. Paddack owns the lowest walk rate on the board (5.6%), which also makes him one of four pitchers above a 20 K-BB% tonight (20.9%). His 2.84 ERA is at least a full run below traditional estimators due to a .205 BABIP and 79.7 LOB%, but a 3.02 DRA is second best on the slate, while he’s displayed a stunning .205 xwOBA at home this year. A quality contact manager (86.6 mph aEV) with great peripherals in a strong matchup in a pitcher’s park puts him in the conversation among tonight’s top overall arms. He may be the top value on FanDuel just less than 9K, while a $10.2K price tag on DraftKings isn’t as easy a choice between he and Corbin, as he’s only exceeded 24 batters faced twice this season.

With all the weather concern on the east coast tonight, one place where players won’t have to worry about a rain delay or cancellation is in Miami and it offers players a pretty solid pitching matchup as well. Or at least two below average offenses in an extremely negative run environment. Chris Paddack has struck out 14 of his last 43 batters, allowing one run over two starts after the Padres gave him a bit of a break. He’ll take a 21.2 K-BB% and 86.1 mph aEV up against the Marlins (78 wRC+, 18 K-BB%, 11.2 HR/FB vs RHP). Estimators are about a run above Paddack’s 2.84 ERA due to a .224 BABIP and five of his 31 runs being unearned, but a .277 xwOBA is a bit more optimistic. The drawback is that Paddack costs $10.9K on DraftKings and only averages 21 batters per game. He’s $2.6K less on FanDuel though.

Trevor Richards with just a 20.8 K% and 10.6 BB%. He’s also allowed at least three runs in under six innings in four of his last five starts with non-FIP estimators well above his 4.18 ERA due to a 10.7 HR/FB, but if that’s sustainable anywhere in the current HR environment, it might be Miami, while an 86.5 mph aEV and 6.6% Barrels/BBE suggests he may deserve it, projecting a .312 xwOBA that’s a bit better than league average. The attraction here is that Richards costs $7.3K or less and will be facing a San Diego offense with an 18.8 K-BB% vs RHP.