Collin McHugh Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Kevin Gausman is one of the more expensive pitchers on the board and likely to be fairly popular facing the Marlins at home in his 2019 debut, but he’s been limited this spring with a shoulder issue. Another expensive pitcher is Collin McHugh, also projecting as one of the most popular pitchers on the board. He led all of today’s pitchers with an 86 mph aEV last year, working out of the bullpen for the Astros. However, the pitcher tied with McHugh for the lowest aEV on the board (86 mph) last season is Gausman’s opponent, Pablo Lopez of the Marlins. In his first start this season, Lopez generated a swing and miss on 15 of his 82 pitches thrown. In 2018, batters from either side of the plate had both a wOBA and xwOBA below .330 against him. While the Braves are not the ideal opponent, they make contact and have some dangerous bats, Lopez does cost just $6.6K on DraftKings in a game which may feature some pitcher friendly umpiring (Eric Cooper).

McHugh’s matchup is not a great one in terms of opponent. He’ll face an Athletics offense that ranked 3rd in baseball with a 112 wRC+ in 2018. The A’s have not started out quite as well as their 2018 numbers, as they’ve posted a 19th ranked .303 xwOBA so far in 2019. Six of the nine Athletics batters will be righties, which plays to McHugh’s advantage. McHugh has been dominant vs. RHB since 2017 with a .260 xwOBA allowed, as opposed to a .329 xwOBA allowed vs. LHP. McHugh will be at home, where he’s been much more effective with a .269 xwOBA allowed at home versus a .307 xwOBA on the road since 2017. McHugh’s juicy 11.7 K/9 last year was a result of him throwing out of the bullpen, but he’s seen decent K/9 numbers as a starter with an 8.63 mark in 2016 and 8.81 in 2017 coming as a starter. The A’s have a 3.76 implied total vs. McHugh Friday night.

Jacob deGrom (28.3%), Zack Greinke (28.1%) and Jose Quintana (25.3%) have the highest strikeout rates on the board. deGrom (13.4%), Greinke (12.9%), Kenta Maeda (12.8%), and Collin McHugh (12.1%) have the highest SwStr rates without an innings qualifier. Maeda (7.71), J.A. Happ (7.17), and Justin Verlander (7.12) are projected for the most strikeouts by the Daily K Predictor. Greinke and Quintana are in a virtual tie atop the RotoGrinders Player Projections with Maeda and Verlander also in a near tie a bit behind them. Maeda has struck out 27 of 89 batters in August, combining that with excellent contact management (84.7 mph aEV and 28.3% 95+ mph EV are exceeded by just one other pitcher with more than two starts today) in a high strikeout spot against the the Brewers, who have a 25 K% on the road and vs RHP, in LA. The only real issue is that he hasn't reached 95 pitches since early May. deGrom has eight or more strikeouts in five of his last six starts and seven of his last 10. The Nationals have a 33 wRC+, 24.8 K% and 4.1 HR/FB (25.5 Hard%) over the last week. Verlander has a 24.3 K-BB% over his last seven starts. The White Sox have an 87 wRC+ and 16.0 K-BB% vs RHP this year. They've actually improved since trading off veterans, but one of their top rookie bats (Moncada) just hit the DL. Greinke has a 22.2 K-BB% that is best on the board and sixth best among qualified pitchers, while his 28.4% 95+ mph EV is one of the lowest marks on the board. The Giants have just a 10.7 HR/FB on the road, though the park in Arizona is a detractor. Happ has struck out at least eight in three of his last four starts and has an 11.5 SwStr% over the last month, pushing his season rate up to a career high 9.8% again. Since the All-Star break (seven starts) he has a -2.5 Hard-Soft%. Quintana fails to support his strikeout rate with just an 8.4 SwStr%, but has a nice matchup in Philadelphia (83 wRC+ vs LHP). McHugh has a 32.6 GB% that could be an issue if his 9.3 HR/FB hits double digits. He has just a 2.1% Barrels/BBE through six starts, but the Angels have just a 1.5 K-BB% over the last week. A potential sleeper, Julio Teheran has a 24.4 K% over the last month. The Rockies have a 16.8 K-BB% and 79 wRC+ on the road this season. RHBs have a -2.1 Hard-Soft% and 16.7 K-BB% against Teheran this year, which takes nearly everyone not named Blackmon out of the equation tonight. He costs less than $7K on either site.

Alex Wood may slightly eclipse Corey Kluber in tonight's RotoGrinders Player Projections, but that's likely due to a matchup edge and there is some reason for caustion (though not yet concern) in Wood's recent profile. Kluber is the only legitimate threat to Chris Sale’s 2017 Cy Young award. His 29.8 K-BB% trails only Sale in the majors. He’s struck out at least 10 in 10 of his last 13 starts and has failed to go at least six innings just twice all season. The Yankees have a 113 wRC+ and Cleveland is actually a more run friendly environment than Yankee Stadium even if it's not as power friendly. The big guy has cooled down a bit since the break though and the Yankees have just a 93 wRC+ over the last week. Kluber is matchup proof anyway. Weather may be the only thing that can stop him tonight. Wood followed up a disastrous start against these same Braves with a four run, seven inning effort with five strikeouts in which his GB rate was below 50% for the second straight start and third time in four starts or since April. It's possible he's tiring and the evidence may be in dropping velocity throughout the month of July after being up over a mile per hour from last year. He still has a -8.4 Hard-Soft% in July and is a quality contact manager against an offense lacking any RH power without Matt Kemp. He actually costs more than Kluber on DraftKings though. Trevor Cahill is the third best projected pitcher tonight and pitches his first game in his new home sporting a career high 26.2 K% with a 56.7 GB% and 85.1 mph aEV (27.2% 95+ mph EV). However, his last start for San Diego and first for Kansas City were both stinkers in which he walked six and struck out three combined. The good news is that those starts were against contact prone offenses (Giants, Red Sox), but that still doesn't excuse a sub-six SwStr% each time out. The hope is he fares better against the Mariners on a thin slate. Rick Porcello may be another option. He carries just a league average strikeout rate with too much hard contact, but faces an ailing White Sox lineup that has struggled against RHP all year. Sonny Gray (23.5 K%, 12.1 SwStr%, 3.43 ERA, 3.70 SIERA) would look more enticing if he weren't making his first Yankee start in Cleveland. He has weather and an opposing offense with a 112 wRC+ at home to worry about. The other option might be Collin McHugh if all else fails. He threw six quality innings at Detroit, striking out seven in his second start of the season. Contact has been a bit of a concern with just a 21.4 GB% so far, especially against a powerful Tampa Bay offense (18 HR/FB vs RHP), but it's a high upside spot with the Rays striking out in a quarter of plate appearances against RHP.

Collin McHugh has only pitched in two games in a year in which Logan Morrison has had a breakout, so it's a bit of surprise that none of his four HRs against McHugh have come this season. Over the past two years, his seven BBEs have a 104.9 mph aEV. It would lend one to think he's in a good spot tonight, but Lucas Duda is also red hot, so players will have a decision to make if they like a Tampa Bay first baseman tonight. Jason Castro also has four HRs against A.J. Griffin (18 PAs) with a 98.2 mph aEV on eight BBEs. While Griffiin is an extreme fly ball pitcher, Castro generally bats at the bottom of the order and weather conditions are expected to be awful in Minnesota tonight. Hanley Ramirez also has a pair of HRs in 11 PAs against Miguel Gonzalez with a 103.7 mph aEV on eight BBEs. First Base is very crowded tonight. The Red Sox also have dual first base threats and the highest projected run line tonight. Brandon Guyer is unlikely to play against Sonny Gray, unless Francona uses BvP to build his lineup. Guyer has two HRs and a 96.4 mph aEV on seven BBEs against Gray. Mookie Betts is one of two batters with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against tonight's opposing pitcher and the only one with an aEV above 90 mph (92.3 mph), but he has only one HR with no extra-base hits in 20 PAs against Gonzalez.

Collin McHugh has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts, though one rough start in Texas in between. His walk rate has increased a bit over that span, though his strikeout rate remains a bit above 22%, as it is for the season. He's also inducing more weak contact (3.9 Hard-Soft% last 30 days), while it's nice to see his BABIP due an above face as a .263 mark over this span finally has him below .350 on the season. The high BABIP was never supported by anything much out of the ordinary in his batted ball or contact rates. The Mariners have some power (14.6 HR/FB vs RHP) in a power friendly park, but it's more of a neutral run environment against an offense that strikes out around average. McHugh is a reasonable choice on a difficult board for $8K tonight. He has a bit of a reverse split too as RHBs have a .337 wOBA against him since last season with LHBs at .313. That makes Nelson Cruz (138 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP since 2015) the most interesting bat in this lineup at an affordable cost right around $4K on either site. The Mariners are projected for just 3.6 runs.

The game log over the last four starts for Collin McHugh looks pretty awful, but his peripherals still do remain strong, and he’s likely to see the .365 BABIP and 14.6% HR/FB rates regress in his favor sooner rather than later. Over the past month he has a 25.2% strikeout rate, 5.0% walk rate and a 3.49 SIERA that ranks as the fourth best of all the pitchers on the mound tonight. The Athletics don't strike out a ton, but they also lack the ability to really get to a right-handed pitcher, so it’s not difficult to imagine a scenario where McHugh is able to string together a more than usable outing tonight. Since McHugh is surrendering 1.62 HR/9 to right-handed batters, Khris Davis (.271 ISO vs RHP) makes for an intriguing leverage play in tournaments if fading Mchugh. He is a little more interesting for tournaments on DraftKings, where he is only $6K, but McHugh certainly deserves a look if you’re building multiple lineups in tournaments on FanDuel as well.