Dean Kremer Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

While we do have a couple of top of the board pitchers among tonight’s top projected values, many of these top values fall in the middle of the board. Kyle Gibson isn’t a high upside arm, but projects as a top two value on either site for exactly $7K, though he probably fits more as a DK SP2 than carrying a lineup on his own a single pitcher site. Gibson no longer has an estimator below four, but all are below his 4.60 ERA, as he’s allowed at least five runs in three of his last six starts, despite a .228 BABIP over this span (66.8 LOB%). His strikeout and ground ball rates have plummeted (15.5% and 42.2% last 11 starts) and pitching in Philadelphia, 11 of his last 15 barrels have left the yard. Ironically, Gibson still does have seven Quality Starts in his last 11 outings too and he hasn’t faced Washington yet this season. They are the second worst offense against slider this season (-0.92 wSL/C) and that’s been one of Gibson’s best pitches (-0.3 RV/100, 20.7%). They’re also probably a bit worse than their 94 wRC+ and 19.7 K% vs RHP this season after this week’s moves.

Even with a price discrepancy of $1.6K between sites, Dean Kremer is the fourth best projected value on either site, more likely due to park and matchup than his own performance. Kremer doesn’t often go beyond five innings with a below average strikeout rate (18.6%) and 9.9% Barrels/BBE allowed through 10 starts. That just 30.8% of his contact has been on the ground has been a bit less dangerous in Baltimore this year, which explains the gap between his 3.86 ERA and 4.09 FIP and his 5.45 xERA, which register as his estimator bookends. Just six of his 16 barrels have left the yard (8.3 HR/FB). Kremer likes to throw his cutter (-1.3 RV/100) 31.3% of the time. The Pirates have been the third worst offense in the league against cutters (-1.25 wFC/C), but are also pretty bad against every pitch. The Pirates have an 86 wRC+ and 25.1 K% vs RHP overall.

Jose Berrios is still a highly volatile, but most recently more interesting arm in a “revenge game” against the Twins. He has a 31.7 K% over his last five starts. Of course, he’s only been above 30% in one of those starts and this run has included facing both Oakland and Detroit, but its far better than what he was giving Toronto before July. He’s a good walk rate (5.5%) with a now average strikeout rate (21.6%) and terrible contact profile (90.6 mph EV, 11.1% Barrels/BBE). His 4.95 ERA is exactly one-third of a run above his FIP and still below his 5.20 xERA. Contact neutral estimators are closer to four. The four-seamer has been his worst pitch (30.9%, 2.3 RV/100, .455 wOBA). The Twins are the fifth best offense in the league against fastballs (0.49 wFB/C), so hopefully he’s smart enough to keep that one in his back pocket, but the Twins also have a 112 wRC+, 22.4 K% and 13.7 HR/FB vs RHP overall. However, Berrio’s recent uptick, along with his $7.7K cost on DraftKings does project him as one of the better values tonight.

Just as volatile, Josiah Gray has at least six strikeouts in eight of his last nine starts with a 29.6 K% and 21.3 K-BB% over this span. Unfortunately, his home run issues continue to rage out of control. He’s allowed 24 of them already (17.9 HR/FB) on 31 barrels (11.5%). While that is a large percentage of his barrels leaving the yard, that’s a large percentage of barrels on contact period. That said, the 5.30 FIP is really the outlier here. The next closest estimator to his 4.59 ERA is a 4.20 xFIP. He allowed two home runs, but struck out 11 in his first trip to Philly this season, just four starts back. There are plenty of challenges here from the park to the weather (which is both hitter friendly and a rain risk) against the Phillies (97 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 13.9 HR/FB vs RHP), but Gray still projects as a top 10 value for $9K or less.

The Cleveland Guardians have a 17.7 K% vs RHP going into Thursday night’s game. What does that have to do with Corey Kluber? He struck out 10 of them in his last start to push his season strikeout rate up to a league average 21.6%. However, a 3.7 BB% is what allows him to so frequently turn less than 90 pitches into six innings. He completed that many (but never more) in 11 of his last 17 starts, including the Cleveland start, where he also allowed four runs, in just 89 pitches. Kluber’s been in a bit of mini-slump (13 runs last 17 innings), but that’s more a BABIP (.375) and strand rate (59.%) issue than anything to be worried about. The contact profile has been great as well (6.1% Barrels/BBE, 87.1 mph EV, 20.2 IFFB%). He’s generated six more infield flies than barrels. His 4.03 ERA aligns very well with a 4.02 xERA without any non-FIP estimators more than one-third of a run removed. He has one of the best matchups on the board in Detroit (67 wRC+, 24.6 K%, 7.0 HR/FB vs RHP), but projects as merely a middle of the board value within $300 of $8.5K on either site, in what may be a bit of an oversight, though the risky workload likely has a lot to do with that. This is another spot where his extreme efficiency should win out though.

Patrick Sandoval has an above average strikeout rate (24.2%), but a double digit walk rate too (10.2%). With just four of 17 barrels (6.6%) leaving the yard though. His 3.01 FIP separates itself by around a run from additional estimators. In fact, his FIP and 4.49 xERA bookend those estimators with the remainder a bit above his 3.61 ERA, as a .344 BABIP has balanced out the low home run rate. Sandoval’s ERA has been over five in his last six starts, despite an improvement to his K-BB over this span (17.7%). He’s completed six innings in just one of those starts with his BABIP up to .448. He should be okay if he can keep the walk rate in single digits and projects as a top 10 DK value, where he’s $1.2K less than FD with a park upgrade, but difficult matchup (Mariners 112 wRC+, 23.4 K%, 10.7 BB% vs LHP).