Denard Span Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
An Under the Radar Stack?
The first two games of this Orioles/Mariners series have been quiet, and I doubt we will get a ton of traction on this game in the late night west coast start once again. Andrew Cashner simply isn't very good anymore, with little ability to control batted balls to hitters from either side of the plate. I'm happy with any Seattle GPP stack in this one, and I will likely stick with the middle of the order. Segura/Cruz/Span is the trio I've landed on most often, as this gives you access to power upside as well as some correlation with runs and RBI's in the middle of the order. Low ownership is also a bonus, and I'm fine with this in any GPP format this evening.
Value in bats against hard contact prone pitcher despite low run line
Seattle bats are not without value tonight despite just a 3.85 implied run line. Frankie Montas has just a 15.6 K% in 10 starts for Oakland and LHBs have pounded him for a .372 wOBA adn 49.5 Hard% with just a 33.3 GB%. Robinson Cano (118 wRC+, .150 ISO vs RHP this season) and Denard Span (120 wRC+, .171 ISO) are interesting here. Mitch Haniger (137 wRC+, .229 ISO) and Nelson Cruz (143 wRC+, .260 ISO) are more than good enough to overcome a slight park handicap against a pitcher whose been league average against RHBs (.308 wOBA).
Target the Lefties and the Power
Seattle might go a bit over-looked tonight in a west coast game, but they are a fine tournament stack against Montas, who has taken his lumps this season. His SIERA sits at 4.84, and he has allowed a whopping 47% hard contact rate for the year. Lefties have been particularly problematic and own a 31% line drive rate against him. Yikes. Seager and Span are cost-controlled options, and I like the point per dollar upside of Seager in this matchup. The power bat of Nelson Cruz is also a great addition for stack upside.
Contact prone offense against a pitcher struggling to miss bats and induce weak contact
Jacob Nix has struck out just seven of 55 major league batters faced so far and has allowed 8.8% Barrels/BBE. The Mariners contact prone team sending four batters above a 120 wRC+ against RHP against him, including Denard Span (123 wRC+, .174 ISO) and Robinson Cano (123 wRC+, .154 ISO). Mitch Haniger (139 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Nelson Cruz (141 wRC+, .254 ISO) add quite a bit of pop and both have a wRC+ above 220 over the last week. San Diego is quite the negative run environment, but the Mariners have a chance to score some runs here.
Highly projected offense in a great park despite missing their top bat
At first glance, one might wonder why the Mariners have a 5.68 implied run line more than a full run below the home team at Coors tonight despite the obviously better offense when both teams are utilizing spot starters tonight. Then you realize it's an NL park, which means no Nelson Cruz. Jeff Hoffman is the new pitcher. His only July action was eight days ago, when he faced 16 AAA batters. He's faced a bit over 300 batters from either side of the plate in his major league career. RHBs (.392 wOBA, 12 HRs) have hit him better than LHBs (.323 wOBA, 10 HRs), while he's been below a 10% K-BB with a 43 GB% in both rates. LHBs (36.4%) have made slightly harder contact than RHBs (32.7%). A disappointing bullpen is likely to see a lot of action in this one. Mitch Haniger (140 wRC+, .238 ISO) and Denard Span (119 wRC+, .182 ISO) have been the best hitters in the lineup against RHP over the last calender year. Dee Gordon (88 wRC+, .071 ISO), Jean Segura (101 wRC+, .124 ISO) and Kyle Seager (95 wRC+, .212 ISO) all have some value as upper half of the lineup bats in this spot.
Mariners drop their LHBs against Matt Moore's reverse splits (LHBs .448 wOBA since 2017)
Matt Moore makes his return from the DL in Seattle. Consequently, the Mariners (4.42) have the highest implied run line in the four west coast games tonight. Moore has a reverse platoon split (LHBs .448 wOBA, .436 xwOBA since last season), which the Mariners have responded to by dropping their two LHBs, Kyle Seager (114 wRC+, .224 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Denard Span (88 wRC+, .083 ISO) to the second half of the order. RHBs have hit him well too though (.342 wOBA, .350 xwOBA). Each of the right-handed batters except Gordon Beckham has a wRC+ above 110 against southpaws over the last calendar year. Mike Zunino (.278), Ryon Healy (.210), Mitch Haniger (.193) and Nelson Cruz (.192) have the top ISOs.
Seattle Mariners attack Doug Fister with a predominantly right-handed lineup (six of first eight)
Right-handed batters have a .410 wOBA against Doug Fister this season, but it seems a bit of a fluke. Not that his 10.1 K% or 16.0 Hard-Soft% against them is anything special and his 48.1 GB% is actually worse than against LHBs this year (49.4%), but the .382 BABIP by same-handed batters is going to regress. He's traditionally been stronger against RHBs (.313 wOBA, 28.4 Hard%, 51.4 GB% since last season) with LHBs generating success against him (.348 wOBA, .345 xwOBA, 42.4 Hard%), but the Mariners, implied for 4.5 runs in a negative run environment, don't offer much from that side of the plate. Just Denard Span (114 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Kyle Seager (103 wRC+, .217 ISO) among the first eight in the order. There are better overall plays and values on today's board.
Denard Span scratched Friday; Johnny Field replaces
The Tampa Bay Rays have announced that they have traded Denard Span to the Seattle Mariners as part of a multi-player deal, and he has officially been scratched from the original confirmed lineup for Friday's matchup with the Baltimore Orioles due to that aforementioned pending trade. He'll be replaced in the lineup by Johnny Field, who will play right field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which will bump Brad Miller all the way up to leadoff and Mallex Smith up to sixth, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Rays order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander David Hess at home this evening.
LHBs have a ground ball rate (30.7%) half of what RHBs do (61%) against Rick Porcello
The Tampa Bay Rays have the lowest implied run line on the board this evening (3.35), more than a quarter run below the next lowest team, their opponents. Rick Porcello will be facing the Tampa Bay Rays four the fourth time this season (20.1 IP - 19 H - 7 ER - 1 HR - 1 BB - 17 K - 80 BF). David Price was successful under similar circumstances last night. All of Porcello's five HRs allowed this season have come in his last five starts, in which he's been throwing a few more curveballs. His ground ball rate has been below his 48.3% season rate in four of those starts, each of which he's allowed a HR in. Denard Span homered on a meatball changeup in his most recent start against them. Oddly, while Tampa Bay struggles against sliders the most (-19.4 wSL), he's been below his season average (25.6%) with that pitch in all three starts against them. The 24.4 K% is third best on the board tonight, while his last start (19.6 SwStr%) puts Porcello at a league average 10.1 SwStr% on the season now. His .280 xwOBA is second best on the board. This is an interesting spot because players should consider at least some exposure to Porcello at the second highest price tag on the board, but can also consider fading him for $11.2K on DraftKings. He has gotten an out in the sixth inning in every single start this year though. Only Mike Clevinger has pitched more innings per start on this board. Despite an eight point higher K-BB%, all five of his HRs have been surrendered to LHBs this season with a ground ball rate that's cut in half (30.7% vs 61% vs RHBs). Span (111 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and perhaps Brad Miller (91 wRC+, .169 ISO) have to be considered tonight, though the only other LHB in the lineup, Mallex Smith, has absolutely no power (103 wRC+, .101 ISO).
Tampa Bay (18.2 wFB) provides inexpensive upside against a pitcher who throws a lot of fastballs (Gausman 58%)
Kevin Gausman has generally been a guy who hasn't lived up to the potential with an ERA above his estimators throughout his career. This year, it's well below his estimators due to a .244 BABIP and 87.9 LOB%. The HR/FB is still at 17% with just a 20% strikeout rate. While his fastball usage has dropped below 60% for the first time this year, he still throws a lot of them 58% and the Rays have made substantial improvements against the pitch through roster construction this year. It's right there on Fangraphs. Filter for team stats through Pitch Value and the Rays are fourth (+18.2 wFB). The smart thing to do would be for Gausman to throw more sliders (17.5% this year) because they're terrible against those (-14.9 wSL), but he has to throw some fastballs, which could provide some inexpensive offensive production tonight. While Gausman has historically been a pronounced reverse split pitcher, that hasn't really been the case since the start of last year. There's very little separation in a wOBA/xwOBA right around .340 against batters from either side of the plate. PlateIQ tells us that Wilson Ramos (95 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has been the best fastball hitter since 2016, though C.J. Cron (100 wRC+, .192 ISO) has been a quality bat against the pitch as well (.348 wOBA). Denard Span (115 wRC+, .181 ISO) and Carlos Gomez (112 wRC+, .218 ISO) have been the top two bats against RHP over the last calendar year. Matt Duffy has a 133 wRC+, but just a .303 xwOBA in a smaller sample. Span is the only one in the lineup above $3.8K on either site.