Didi Gregorius Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The ALCS moves on to Yankee Stadium tonight, the more hitter friendly run environment on the board tonight. While certainly much more power friendly, in a vacuum, it’s not really a much higher run scoring environment than Washington overall. However, with temperatures expected to be in the mid-60s and negligible winds, according to the RG Weather Page, Weather Edge is showing a sizable run and power boost with more than a 50 game sample, surprisingly.

Gerrit Cole was simply lights out against the Rays, striking out 25 of the 54 batters he saw, while allowing a single solo HR over 15.2 innings. It’s certainly a tougher lineup he’ll face tonight, but his 39.9 K%, 2.62 SIERA, 2.36 DRA, 77.1 Z-Contact% and .238 xwOBA are all easily best on the board today. This, of course, also easily makes him the most expensive pitcher on the board by around $2K on either site, but he’s one of two pitchers we should be confident might get some length tonight. He was the best pitcher in baseball this year and not someone the Astros will look to remove at the first sign of trouble. A 3.38 implied run line for the Yankees is second lowest on the board and likely the lowest we’ve seen for this team in a home game in quite some time. Didi Gregorius (85 wRC+, .186 ISO) is the only batter in the Yankee lineup below a 115 wRC+ vs RHP this year and DJ LeMahieu (119 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Giovanny Urshela (135 wRC+, .210 ISO) are the only other ones below a .250 ISO. This is not going to be an easy lineup to navigate and anyone’s playable on a two game slate, but batters from either side of the plate are below a .250 wOBA and xwOBA against Cole this year. Aaron Judge had a 50.9 Hard% vs RHP this year.

On the other side, Luis Severino’s results were fine through three starts this year (35.4 K%, 1.50 ERA), but he did this in just 12 innings with a 10.1 SwStr%, 3.80 SIERA and 4.05 DRA. He struck out four of the 17 Twins he faced in his lone post-season start. However, if the Yankees were willing to pull James Paxton at the first sign of trouble, that doesn’t speak confidently for Severino, who’s not made it through more than 19 batters in any of his outings this year. The good news is that he’s just $6.9K on DraftKings. The bad news is that the Astros had a 123 wRC+ vs RHP this year and a 4.12 implied run line that’s second highest on the board. The projected lineup has just a 17 K% vs RHP this year. While the Astros will be facing one of the best bullpens in baseball behind Severino, most of those guys pitched two nights ago and it’s hard to match up with an offense that hits pitchers from either side of the plate well nearly all the way through. Each of the first seven batters in the projected order, who are the same as the first two games of this series, were above a 120 wRC+ and .210 ISO vs RHP this year.

Temperatures are expected to be over 30 degrees cooler in New York than Atlanta today and while there appears to be a strong wind, it seems to be blowing across the field, according to weather edge. This still may be the game players want to target for offense tonight. Jose Berrios has both the second lowest strikeout rate (23.2%) and aEV (86.5 mph) on the board today. His 3.68 ERA and 3.85 FIP are quality marks as well, but his 4.44 DRA is actually worst on the board. And while it’s still a better than average mark, his .303 xwOBA is also just one of two above .300 today. In fact, batters from either side of the plate had a .303 xwOBA against him this year with an actual wOBA within three points. Though he seemed to straighten himself out in September (two runs or less in three of his last four starts), Berrios did allow at least three runs in each of his previous six starts. This Yankee lineup is completely stacked. Virtually anyone in it could bat third or eighth. Among those projected, only Didi Gregorius (83 wRC+, .187 ISO) was below a 118 wRC+ vs RHP this year and only Giancarlo Stanton (.156) and DJ LeMahieu (.166) along with Gregorius were below a .200 ISO against RHP this year.

James Paxton gets the ball for the Yankees to start this series. He had an amazing September (1.05 ERA, 2.20 FIP, .245 xwOBA, 30.6 K%), but he also left his last start of the season after a single inning due to glute tightness. He calls it a non-issue and could have amazing upside for just $6.9K in this spot, but the Twins had a 126 wRC+ vs LHP that’s the highest split on the board today. Paxton at less than 100% could be a problem here. The projected lineup for the Twins features four batters above a .400 wOBA and .300 ISO vs LHP this year, all with more than 120 PAs: Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano and C.J. Cron. Beware that the Yankees do have an abundance of quality right-handers they can bring out of the pen if need be here, but these Twins bats were also very strong against RHP as well.

The Yankees get a great matchup at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park tonight vs. Joe Palumbo. Palumbo had decent numbers in the minors, but has really struggled over 6 games (3 starts) in the Bigs, coughing up a 9.22 ERA with a .381 xwOBA allowed. With Giancarlo Stanton back this Yankee lineup is looking as dangerous as ever, especially against lefties as the majority of the Yankees’ lineup will have the platoon advantage. Aaron Judge (.459 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), DJ LeMahieu (.416), Luke Voit (.396), Gleyber Torres (.375), Austin Romine (.355), Gio Urshela (.324), Didi Gregorius (.305) and Giancarlo Stanton (.417 xwOBA vs. LHP last year) are all great options tonight. Judge, Stanton and Voit all have an xwOBA over .400 over the past 2 weeks. On Draftkings only Stanton, Gregorius, Voit, Urshela and Romine are priced at $4.5k or less. Pricing is a bit more flexible on Fanduel, where Judge is the only NYY hitter over $4k. The Yankees currently have a juicy 7.00 implied total vs. Palumbo and the Rangers tonight.

Despite getting a good matchup in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre versus an unproven pitcher, Yankees bats are very affordable this afternoon. They’ll face T.J. Zeuch, who posted a 3.69 ERA / 5.38 xFIP with a 2.1% K-BB in AAA. Zeuch supposedly excels at inducing weak contact, which makes sense given his low ERA despite a terrible K-BB%, as well as his ridiculously high groundball rates in the minors. Maybe that’s sustainable in the minors, but I’m not sure a 2.1% K-BB will play in the MLB, especially against the free-swinging Yankees. Aaron Judge (.373 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Gio Urshela (.371), Luke Voit (.365), DJ LeMahieu (.362), Gleyber Torres (.342), Clint Frazier (.319), Brett Gardner (.316) and Didi Gregorius (.296) are all in play today vs. Zeuch. On Draftkings, all Yankee bats are $4.7k or less. With the exception of Aaron Judge, they are all less than $4.2k on Fanduel. LeMahieu (projected to leadoff, $3.8k on FD, $4.3k on DK) and Voit (projected to bat 5th, $3.7k on FD, $4.3k on DK) both stand out as great values. The Yankees currently have a 6.15 implied total, 2nd highest on the main slate.

Sean Manaea will be making his first start of the year this afternoon after dealing with a shoulder injury for the majority of 2019. Although he did look very good in 5 rehab starts in the minors (3.21 ERA / 2.97 xFIP over 28 innings pitched in AAA) you have to think Manaea will be shaking off some rust in his first start back. Facing a stacked Yankees lineup at Yankee Stadium is a tough spot to be shaking off rust. Despite dealing with injuries all year, the Yankees have continued to swing the bats well and have plenty of good options in their lineup for this matchup: Aaron Judge (.480 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), DJ LeMahieu (.430), Luke Voit (.394), Gleyber Torres (.355), Mike Tauchman (.346), Gary Sanchez (.329), Clint Frazier (.323) and Didi Gregorius (.302) are all in play here. Only Judge ($5.2k) and LeMahieu ($5.1k) are over $5k in the NYY lineup on Draftkings. Sanchez ($4.6k), Gregorius ($4.5k), Voit ($4.5k), Frazier ($4.3k) and Tauchman ($4.1k) all look like nice values. Yankees bats will also have the advantage of an extra hitter-friendly umpire in Stu Scheurwater. The Yanks currently have a healthy 5.79 implied line vs. Manaea and the A’s this afternoon.

If you perhaps thought that the mighty exploits of the no name Yankees from earlier this season was due to regress, it might seem a reasonable assumption. But so far, it would also be wrong. With the majority of their normal starting lineup back on the IL, the Yankees are featuring lineups with Mike Ford, Brett Gardner, Austin Romine and Mike Tauchman somewhere in the middle...and all of them homered last night. Gardner and Tauchman “slapped” HRs the opposite way, while the Yankees have now hit in excess of 30 HRs at Camden this year. Part ball, part environment, part weather, why wouldn’t we expect this to continue on Tuesday night against Asher Wojciechowski. Though he’s struck out 29.6% of batters faced through six starts, he’s also allowed seven HRs with a 26.4 GB% and 12.6% Barrels/BBE. The latter the highest mark on the board tonight among those with at least one start. Wojciechowski has dominated RHBs (.248 wOBA, .281 xwOBA), but struggled with LHBs (.361 wOBA, .346 xwOBA), but do to the extreme fly ball rate, the seven HRs have been fairly evenly split. The Yankees are one of three teams above six implied runs (6.18) and less than a tenth of a run off the top spot tonight. While Didi Gregorius is the top LH bat in this lineup (126 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Brett Gardner has become somewhat of a power hitter in this juiced ball environment as well (111 wRC+, .224 ISO). In fact, he and Tauchman (117 wRC+, .252 ISO) are the hottest bats in this lineup, both exceeding a 220 wRC+ and 45 Hard% over the last week. If either sees themselves bumped up towards the top or middle of the lineup tonight, they’re both within $100 of $3K on FanDuel. Mike Ford (71 wRC+, .118 ISO) also homered last night to add to his 23 with a 149 wRC+ at AAA this year.