Dominic Smith Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Mets have under-performed to the tune of just a 98 wRC+ vs RHP. Game postponements and cold weather may be a partial reason for that. Tonight, they’ll finally have some hitting weather at Wrigley with the wind blowing out to right-center at 10+ mph. That’s particularly beneficial to their left-handed power. Also beneficial is that LHBs are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Trevor Williams since 2019. RHBs have hit him pretty well too (.344 wOBA, .324 xwOBA). The first seven projected batters for the Mets all exceed a 110 wRC+ and .170 ISO vs RHP since 2019, though Brandon Nimmo, who missed last night with a hip issue, is the only LHB in the lineup above a 100 wRC+ overall this season. If he plays, he’s the value in this lineup at less than $4K on either site. Dominic Smith (142 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP) is just $2.7K on FanDuel. Pete Alonso (138 wRC+, .300 ISO) hit one completely out of Wrigley under rougher conditions last night.

On the other side, the Cubs actually present one of the higher upside matchups on the slate with five of eight batters in the projected lineup above a 25 K% vs LHP since 2019, but Lucchesi seems to be a guy the Mets want to limit to twice through the order or less and will likely be replaced by a RHP by the fifth inning if not earlier. Lucchesi is also projected to face only one LHB (Anthony Rizzo), though RHBs have just a .311 wOBA against him since 2019. There are three RHBs above a 115 wRC+ and .240 ISO in tonight’s projected lineup: Willson Contreras (127, .242), Kris Bryant (170, .324) and Javier Baez (120, .277). They should each get two cracks at the lefty, but all three are fairly expensive. Both offenses are tied for the second highest implied output tonight at 4.75 runs. Bats in this game will be on everyone’s radar.

Vince Velasquez has been held to smaller workloads, facing a total of 48 batters over three starts since being reinserted into the rotation, but working his way up to 84 pitches last time out. He should be able to work deeper into today’s game if circumstances call for it. He’s struck out 15 of those 48 batters and his 26.8 K% on the season is actually third best on the board tonight. However, his 44 Z-O-Swing% is also second worst, resulting in far too much hard contact and a 90.4 mph aEV and 12.9% Barrels/BBE that are second worst on the slate as well. Estimators are in line with his 4.73 ERA. Velasquez has been competent against RHBs over the last 12 months (.309 wOBA, .303 xwOBA), but LHBs have pounded him (.380 wOBA, .355 xwOBA). The Mets are expected to line up with three well above average LHBs against RHP, along with Robinson Cano (103 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who may finally be breaking out of his season long funk with a 157 wRC+ and 56.3 Hard% over the last seven days. Jeff McNeil (145 wRC+, .160 ISO, .348 xwOBA), Michael Conforto (137 wRC+, .251 ISO) and Dominic Smith (137 wRC+, .250 ISO) are all quality bats in this projected lineup for a team implied for 4.5 runs tonight. Pete Alonso (145 wRC+, .299 ISO) is certainly stack worthy with the above batters as well.

According to a large sample of previous games, WeatherEdge (available to premium subscribers) likes offense to be up across the board tonight due to atmospheric conditions in Citi Field as the Phillies take on the Mets. Jacob Degrom is taking the hill for the Mets and while it’s not advisable to stack against him, the opposite is true for Vince Velasquez, who gets the start for the Phillies tonight after splitting time between the pen and rotation this year. Since 2018, Velasquez has a 4.60 ERA / 4.50 xFIP as a starter on the road with a 13.4% K-BB. In that split, Velasquez has been more vulnerable to lefties as he has a .330 xwOBA allowed to LHB compared to a .290 xwOBA vs. RHB. Michael Conforto (.403 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Dominic Smith (.373), Jeff McNeil (.373) and Robinson Cano (.346) are all great left-handed options tonight. Pete Alonso (.372) and JD Davis (.364) are also in play despite not having the platoon advantage. Besides Cano who is just $3.1k on Draftkings, Mets’ bats figure to be contrarian tonight despite a decent 4.94 implied total and they are a good way to differentiate on this slate. If you want to get super contrarian and gain leverage on the field, you could roster a few Phillies’ bats vs. Degrom as he will likely be the heaviest owned SP by a wide margin, though it is certainly not a high probability play as the Phillies currently have just 3.56 implied runs.

Conditions in Philadelphia call for an offensive bump (despite a pitcher friendly umpire) and Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta may be just the pitchers to provide some fireworks. Vargas has followed up a run of one run or less in six of seven outings with 10 runs (eight earned) over his last 14.2 innings (10 K, 7 BB, 2 HR) and the threat of physical violence against a reporter. With an 8.1 K-BB%, .266 BABIP, 9.7 HR/FB, 5.89 DRA and .322 xwOBA, regression was always coming for him. It was just a matter of how hard it was going to hit. To his credit, he owns a board low 86.2 mph aEV on the season and still has a .288 xwOBA over the last month. That’s where the temperature near 90 degrees comes in. It will likely carry those baseballs a bit further. Each of the first five in the projected Philadelphia batting order (Scott Kingery, Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto) are all above a 100 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year with the lefty, Harper, having the most success (146 wRC+, .270 ISO).

On the other end, Nick Pivetta has allowed five HRs over his last two starts and multiple HRs in five of his nine starts overall. A quarter of his fly balls have left the yard this year, which is the same percentage of his overall contact that have been line drives. So while his non-FIP estimators are closer to four and a half, his .372 xwOBA is just eight points away from his actual mark. He’s striking out fewer batters this year with 10.8% of his contact qualifying as Barrels. Batters from either side of the plate have exactly a .328 xwOBA against Pivetta over the last calendar year (with actual wOBAs a bit higher). Each of the first seven Mets in the projected order are above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last 12 months with Pete Alonso (146 wRC+, .305 ISO), Michael Conforto (139 wRC+, .256 ISO), Todd Frazier (108 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Dominic Smith (124 wRC+, .228 ISO) flashing the most power. Robinson Cano (110 wRC+, .193 ISO) continues to be very cheap due to recent struggles.

In three of his last four starts, Jake Arrieta has struck out exactly three, while allowing a total of six HRs. In the other, he struck out five without a HR, but walked four. He’s sitting on just a 9.2 K-BB% and 20 HR/FB this season now. He does still keep the ball on the ground half the time (51.5%), but the lack of strikeouts still means enough air contact is made to do damage. Even a 4.12 ERA understates the struggle this year with all of his estimators at least a bit higher and a .341 xwOBA. LHBs have blasted Arrieta over the last calendar year for a .384 wOBA and .391 xwOBA and just a 42.3 GB%. The top half of the Mets’ order, which should include Jeff McNeil (139 wRC+, .142 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Robinson Cano (108 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Michael Conforto (140 wRC+, .257 ISO), all make strong plays here and Pete Alonso (149 wRC+, .313 ISO) has shown the ability to destroy RHP. Dominic Smith (115 wRC+, .210 ISO) may be another bat of interest if available. The Mets are near the middle of tonight’s board at 4.64 implied runs and shouldn’t be too popular. The Phillies (5.86) are going to be the higher owned offense in this game, going against Walter Lockett, a low strikeout, ground ball pitcher, in a similar vein to Arrieta.

Zach Eflin may be the Phillies’ most consistent pitcher this year, but he may not be doing things in a very sustainable way or least not a way that coincides with daily fantasy upside. Even his strikeout rate boost to 25.7% over the last month comes with just a 7.9 SwStr%, making his 3.25 K/SwStr the highest on the board over that span. His 2.83 ERA this season is due to a .271 BABIP (27 points below what the Philadelphia defense allows), 82.2 LOB% and 10.9 HR/FB. His SIERA, xFIP and FIP each reach four. While his 3.79 DRA and .293 xwOBA are a bit more impressive, they’re still both well behind his current ERA as well. His 87.7 mph aEV and 35.3% 95+ mph EV are more average than strong. If we call him a league average pitcher here in a warm and humid, power friendly environment, there may be some room for Mets’ bats, who own a 126 wRC+, 9.7 K-BB% and 23.6 HR/FB over the last week, especially considering Eflin still has a platoon issue (LHBs .351 wOBA, .329 xwOBA, 36.3 Hard%, 39.7 GB% over the last 12 months). Robinson Cano (112 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a great value play here ($3.2K DK), while Jeff McNeil (140 wRC+, .145 ISO) and Michael Conforto (137 wRC+, .248 ISO) could be utilized in player pools as well. Another consideration might be Dominic Smith (111 wRC+, .191 ISO), who costs just $2.2K on FanDuel and is now outfield eligible.