Edinson Volquez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Edinson Volquez gets his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing all of 2018. Volquez has not been effective for some time now, posting a 6.61 K/9 and 4.58 xFIP over 189.1 innings in 2016 and following with a 7.9 K/9 and 4.78 xFIP over 92.1 innings in 2017. He returns to face a tough lineup in a hitter’s park with the wind blowing out to RF. Volquez is especially vulnerable vs. lefties (.368 xwOBA since 2016 vs. LHB). Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber all figure to be good plays here with nice upside. Zobrist ($4.0 on DK) is leading off and showed he still has some pop left with a .337 xwOBA vs RHP last year. Rizzo (.385 xwOBA in 2018) and Schwarber (.358) are more expensive but should fare well hitting in the middle of the order. Kris Bryant is another option batting 2nd, he also hit RHP well last year (.350 xwOBA). Javy Baez (.327 xWOBA in 2018 vs. RHP) feels a tad overpriced coming in at $5.3k on DK and $4.4k on FD, but is always a threat to go deep.

The Phillies are facing Edinson Volquez. Over his last three starts, his walk rate has dropped to a manageable 9.2%, but his strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff too (14.5% with a 7.7 SwStr%). LHBs (.358 wOBA, 36 Hard%) have been more successful than RHBs against him since last season (.337 wOBA, 29.2 Hard%). The Phillies don't have any particularly good hitters against RHP, but Tommy Joseph is the only bat with an ISO above .200 against them since 2016 (102 wRC+, .205 ISO). Aaron Alther continues his hot streak (133 wRC+, 60 Hard%), giving more credit to the theory that his mis-adventures last season were more due to injury than talent. Cesar Hernandez (108 wRC+ vs RHP since 2016) and Michael Saunders (101 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP since 2016) can be useful bats as well, though no Philadelphia bat is deemed essential or of significant value with an implied run total of just four. .

Edinson Volquez has a 15.3 BB%, which just about renders his 23.6 K% completely useless. He’s not gone more than six innings this season, reaching that mark only twice. The Dodgers pound mediocre RHP (117 wRC+) at home (124 wRC+) and are virtually tied for the top implied run line tonight (4.7). LHBs have a .356 wOBA (35.7 Hard%) against Volquez (RHBs .332 wOBA, 28.8 Hard%) since last season, making the top half of the projected (Pederson, Seager, Turner, Grandal, Bellinger) not only playable, but desirable as well. Each has at least a 120 wRC+ and .220 ISO vs RHP since 2015 (or career) and of that group, only Pederson has a wRC+ below 135 over the last week.

Philadelphia will play at home against Miami today in a game that appears lackluster on the surface in terms of viable fantasy options. Neither pitcher jumps off the charts as a good option with Edinson Volquez on the mound for the Marlins and Jeremy Hellickson starting for the Phillies. That said, they are also not pitchers that give up a lot of fantasy goodness in most games. Hellickson is an outstanding control pitcher but he has shown a tendency to give up more fly balls this season. There is the potential for some long balls from the Marlins side which makes Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and Justin Bour all viable options. Volquez on the other hand has some K upside (nearly 25% this season) but it's hard to believe that he'll be able to maintain that. He is a ground ball type pitcher that doesn't give up a lot of hard contact and often limits damage against him. Cesar Hernandez is getting the day off for the Phillies with Daniel Nava leading off. Nava is an intriguing option along with Freddy Galvis and Maikel Franco but it's Odubel Herrera that is the top option as he has the team's highest wOBA against RHP at .355.

Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker will join Stanton on the bench tonight after a game that lasted longer than five hours last night, but the positive here is that Michael Conforto (131 wRC+, .248 ISO career vs RHP) is in the lineup tonight, batting fifth. He has started the season on fire (293 wRC+ with two HRs in 15 PAs) when given the opportunity so far. Edinson Volquez has allowed LHBs a .329 wOBA with a 33.5 Hard% since 2015. Conforto costs just $3.4K on DraftKings, $2.8K on FanDuel, while leadoff man Curtis Granderson (118 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $2.9K on FanDuel as well.

Clayton Kershaw is going to be the top arm almost any time he takes the mound and tonight is no different according to the RotoGrinders projections (47.42 FD, 31.03 DK) with Noah Syndergaard about a touchdown behind him and $1.4K to $2.1K less on either site. For those looking to maximize their point per dollar production, Scott Feldman could be an interesting SP2 on DraftKings, projecting to earn 2.68 points per $1K in salary. He does have a 27.9 K% (10.5 SwStr%) through two starts and faces a strikeout prone Milwaukee offense. Edinson Volquez is projected as the top value on FanDuel for $6.1K. Volquez is a replacement for Conley, who was forced into service last night and will be facing a tired Mets offense on normal rest with an impressive 28.3 K% through two starts, but 45.2% hard contact. Freddie Freeman (vs Jhoulys Chacin) is the top overall projected batter on either site with Corey Seager (vs Zack Greinke) the only batter projected for more than 4 Pt/$/K on FanDuel.

Among batters with at least 10 PAs over the last week, Christian Vazquez is the hottest hitter on the slate (408 wRC+). He's not currently projected to start, but keep an eye out for him if he does tonight, as Catcher may be the most likely punt position for those paying up for pitching tonight. He does have a tough matchup against Chris Archer, but this is a pitcher prone to hard contact on occasion. Michael Conforto trails him with a 319 wRC+ over the last week and he may garner a start against Edinson Volquez (.329 wOBA vs RHP) after the Mets played a marathon last night. Wil Myers (278 wRC+) faces a fly ball pitcher Julio Teheran, who has dominated RHBs since 2015 (.248), but is pitching in a brand new home park tonight. Aaron Judge (.276 wRC+, 69.2 Hard%) is almost literally tearing the cover off the ball. Michael Wacha has been average against RHBs (.333 wOBA, 29.9 Hard% since 2015). There are two more interesting hot hitters a bit lower on the list. Both for the same reason. Zack Cozart (254 wRC+) has compiled just a 14.3 Hard% over this stretch, but faces fly ball pitcher Tommy Milone (.347 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015) in a dangerously power friendly park. He's certainly an option for those who may want to pay down at SS or even part of an affordable Reds stack. Chris Davis has a 198wRC+ on just a 7.7 Hard% over the last week. He has one HR and has walked 12% of the time, but that weak contact has generated eight hits for him. He does have three career HRs against Aaron Sanchez with a 93.9 mph aEV on 10 Statcast recorded batted balls.

Edison Volquez is not finishing the season strong, having a rough go in his last few outings. Most pitchers with a k-rate south of 14% are going to struggle, and pitchers with a 35% hard contact allowed percentage tend to get shelled. Volquez’s 1.93 HR/9 illustrates the consequences of this mixture of contact and hard contact leading to the longball. The Indians do not have much to play for since the Rangers locked up home-field advantage on Friday night, but the LHBs in the lineup like Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, and Coco Crisp are very much in play. The only downside is that the game will be played in Kansas City, a park with a 0,91 rating for left-handed home run power on the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool. While this is a below average park rating, it is not the 0.79 rating that right-handers experience in the cavernous Kauffman Stadium. Look to the Indians for a viable stack that some may avoid because of where it will be played.

Edinson Volquez has an ERA above five with estimators around four and a half this season with just a 16.3 K%. Cleveland has the second best home offense in baseball (121 wRC+). While the Tribe is projected to score five runs tonight, there are several high priced bats in the lineup, which may make it difficult to negotiate value out of them, while also being able to afford some of tonight's stronger arms. Volquez has little platoon split with LHBs and RHBs right around a .340 wOBA against him this season and a league average hard hit rate a bit above 30%. The better site to have some exposure to this lineup is probably FanDuel, where both Carlos Santana (132 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP his season) and Jason Kipnis (118 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP this season) cost $3.6K. GPP players can also take a flyer on Tyler Naquin (141 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP) batting eighth for just $2.9K. Interestingly, only Chisenhall and Perez have not homered against Volquez in their career, though only Santana has two.

The Athletics lack any real star power in their lineup, and targeting pitchers against Oakland has become a popular strategy of late. Unfortunately, they have proven people wrong with three straight wins against the Royals in which they have scored a total of 27 runs. It's obviously difficult to expect their young hitters to sustain that level of success, but we are overvaluing pitchers against Oakland at the moment. This basically puts Edinson Volquez out of consideration. His 4.56 SIERA and 4.41 xFIP show his true talent level, and his strikeout rate is well below league average at 16.4%. All of the Oakland hitters are surprisingly cheap, and we can certainly run a stack out there if thinking they can keep this great offensive stretch going. Outside of Khris Davis (.264 ISO vs RHP) and Ryon Healy (125 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .182 ISO vs RHP) there aren't any individual Athletics batters that we can feel good about from a matchup standpoint. This is a clear stack or fade situation but don't count out the Athletics with their recent hot streak.