Eli Morgan Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

If you are not paying up for a top end pitcher tonight or need a cheaper SP pairing, who are the alternatives on a board filled with small sample sizes, potentially smaller workloads from those working their way back from injuries and weather concerns, whether that be rain or offensive boosts, according to Weather Edge?

With his strikeout rate up to 23.1% (17.2 K-BB%), Anthony DeSclafani’s non-contact including estimators are around four, but improve when the contact profile is integrated (3.55 xERA, 3.33 FIP). These are still all well above his 2.77 ERA (.238 BABIP, 9.2 HR/FB). But an average pitcher who’s somewhat of a known quantity, has some value on this board. The concerns are his platoon splits (LHBs .344 wOBA, .359 xwOBA since 2020) and one of those potential weather boosts, facing an offense with a 118 wRC+ vs RHP. Still, he costs only $7.3K on DraftKings.

Cleveland may be one of those weather booster parks via Weather Edge, but Eli Morgan may still be interesting as a cheap SP2 against a Detroit offense with a 90 wRC+ and 26.4 K% vs RHP. He has struck out one of 17 Blue Jays in his first start (9.2 SwStr%), five of 18 Orioles in his second (10.4 SwStr%) and then nine of 19 Cubs in his third (18.3 SwStr%). He’s done this while walking just two and increasing his average velocity in each start, while also doubling up on his cutter usage last time out (32.4%). The bad news is that he’s allowed four home runs (23.5 HR/FB) on five barrels (13.9%). He also has just a 17.6 GB% and 91.3 mph EV. Morgan arrived without prospect hype (35+ FV grade via Fangraphs) without a strikeout rate above 25% above A ball. You have to take some risks on this board though. Jerad Eickoff threw a few more sliders than usual (39%) in his first start for the Mets, resulting in a 13 SwStr%, though he only struck out three of 18 Braves, as many as he walked. In 44 AAA innings, he had a 15.1 K-BB%, 14.4% in 444 major league innings. He costs just $5.7K in Washington (93 wRC+ vs RHP).

Kyle Hendricks has thrown six shutout innings in each of his last two starts, striking out 12 of 43 with just two walks. Down to a 4.6 BB%, he still has a strikeout rate (19.1%) lower than his 19.6 HR/FB. Thus, his FIP (5.08) and xERA (5.20) remain above five with 10.4% Barrels/BBE, but additional estimators are a bit lower, though all still above four. While Hendricks has always done better than average by BABIP, leading to an ERA below estimators, this year, he has an unsustainable, career high 83.1 LOB%. At a cost above $9K, over-paying might make some sense on this board that lacks any relatively safe mid-range options outside DeSclafani, who is certainly high risk in tonight’s spot himself. The Brewers have an 83 wRC+ and 25.8 K% vs RHP. Lastly, Matt Manning arrived with significant prospect hype, but has been far from impressive, either at AAA (25 K%, 6.50 FIP, 4.38 xFIP, 11 home runs in 32.1 innings) or in two major league starts (four walks and strikeouts with a 5.7 SwStr%, 40.5 GB% and 91.9 mph EV against 45 batters faced). The prospect ranking, a $5.9K price tag and an 87 wRC+ vs RHP for the home team in Cleveland are the only things in his favor.