Evan Longoria Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The short way of putting things is that Madison Bumgarner’s 4.58 ERA is the same as his SIERA with his remaining estimators all within one-third of a run. He’s a back end starter at this point in his career and with a .323 wOBA/.326 xwOBA against RHBs this year, his old team can take advantage, as they’re currently projected to line up entirely from the right-side with quality hitters. In fact, of those projected, only Thairo Estrada is below a 118 wRC+ or .170 ISO against lefties this year. Kris Bryant (144 wRC+, .262 ISO vs LHP) and Buster Posey (175 wRC+, .250 ISO) are your expensive bats here, but Evan Longoria (201 wRC+, .339 ISO), Austin Slater (130 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Darin Ruf (164 wRC+, .312 ISO) are quite a bit cheaper. While San Francisco is a negative run environment, it’s been less of one with some stadium alterations over the last couple of years and the Giants actually have the third highest implied run line on the board tonight (5.12).

After missing all of 2018 due to injury, Jimmy Nelson made his debut earlier this month on 6/5, giving up 4 earned runs in just 3 innings of work. He walked a batter per inning, averaged just 92.5 MPH on his fastball (down from 94.5 MPH in 2017) and certainly looked like a pitcher that is trying to shake off rust after a long absence. Though Oracle Park is certainly not hitter-friendly, Giants bats are very affordable across the industry and are an option for those that are paying up for Sale and/or Strasburg on the afternoon slate. Brandon Belt (.387 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Buster Posey (.367), Evan Longoria (.326), Joe Panik (.315) and Brandon Crawford (.311) are all solid options in the Giants’ projected order. Pablo Sandoval (.379) is also a great option if he can crack the starting lineup. Belt has been the Giants’ hottest hitter with a .407 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Sandoval with a .393 mark. Mike Yastrzemski projects to bat 2nd, but has just a .242 xwOBA vs. RHP on the year. All Giants’ bats are available for $3.8k or less on Draftkings with the exception of Belt, who is $4.2k.

The Giants haven’t been a good offense this year, but they are priced incredibly low for a nice matchup versus David Hess and they get a park upgrade going from Oracle to Camden Yards. Hess has a 6.71 ERA / 5.69 xFIP / 5.15 SIERA with a 52.8% FB rate, 11.1% K-BB and just an 8.4% SwStr. He also has a .404 xwOBA allowed, 16% barrel rate and 91.4% aEV, all among the worst in the league among starting pitchers. Brandon Belt (.376 xwOBA vs. RHP this year, $4k on DK), Pablo Sandoval (.373, $4.1k), Buster Posey (.363, $3.2k), Joe Panik (.334, $3.6k), Brandon Crawford (.320, $3.2k) and Evan Longoria (.318, $3.8k) are all great value options in the Giants’ order. Mike Yastrzemski (.257, $3.5k) will bat 2nd and had a 160 wRC+ in AAA this year before getting called up. The Orioles have a 5.6 implied line vs. Hess and will likely be very highly-owned on this slate in all formats given the bargain prices and high total.

Normally an offense to target with pitchers, the Giants have some decently priced bats in a nice matchup vs. Zack Godley and the D-Backs tonight. Godley has followed up a mediocre 2018 with an ugly 2019, posting a 7.65 ERA / 5.33 xFIP / 5.27 SIERA so far in 37.2 innings with a 6.2% K-BB. He’s giving up a career high 43% hard contact, a 1.67 HR/9 and a .386 xwOBA allowed with a 10.7% barrel rate allowed. Joe Panik (86 wRC+ vs. RHP since 2018) projects to leadoff at just $3.5k. Steven Duggar (84 wRC+, .147 ISO), Buster Posey (103 wRC+, .104 ISO), Brandon Belt (129 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Evan Longoria (84 wRC+, .167 ISO) are all available for $4.1k or less on Draftkings and $3k or less on Fanduel. Joe Panik (.419 xwOBA over the past 10 days) has been the Giants’ hottest hitter. Brandon Crawford (.375) has also seen the ball well recently and is cheap across the industry. The Giants have a 4.32 implied total for tonight.

Chad Bettis is a pitcher we can target whether he’s at Coors or not. Since 2015 he has a career xwOBA allowed of .329, but owns a .336 xwOBA on the road. He owns reverse splits (.343 xwOBA vs. RHB since 2015, .314 vs. LHB) and actually does a nice job keeping the ball on the ground (49.7% career GB rate) but allows too much contact (career 16.3% K rate). The Giants don’t mash RHP but they do have plenty of value bats. Joe Panik (.315 xwOBA vs. RHP last year), Brandon Belt (.355), Evan Longoria (.306) and Brandon Crawford (.311) are all middle of the order bats tonight that can be had for $4k or less on Draftkings. Steven Duggar (.246 xwOBA vs. RHP last year) is leading off (why, Bochy?) and is intriguing given that it’s hard to find leadoff guys at just $3.6k. The Giants have a 4.24 implied run total vs. Bettis and the Rox tonight.

With half of tonight's slate on the west coast, we're going to have to project on some of these lineups for a bit longer, but one spot that could be interesting for both pitching and offense could be San Diego. Derek Holland has been good and Eric Lauer is cheap, while there are plenty of soft spots in either lineup in a very negative run environment with both teams around the four implied run mark. RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within four points of .360 against Lauer this year though and both Andrew McCutchen (130 wRC+, .202 ISO) and Buster Posey (132 wRC+, .151 ISO) have hit LHP well over the last calendar year with Evan Longoria (112 wRC+, .208 ISO) an option with an upgraded lineup slot. On the other side, Derek Holland has improved his wOBA against RHBs by over 60 points this season, but they still have a .341 mark against him with all 14 of his home runs surrendered. There are plenty of strikeouts in this San Diego lineup, but also quite a bit of RH power: Wil Myer (118 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Hunter Renfroe (144 wRC+, .304 ISO) and Christian Villanueva (201 wRC+, .434 ISO).