Framber Valdez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Framber Valdez scratched Monday.

With both sites starting a half hour earlier tonight, the only difference is DraftKings including the second game on the double-header in Miami, making it a seven game slate, though with both pitchers coming directly from the IL with little in the way of rehab starts, they’ll likely both have workload limitations. Considering the remaining 12 pitchers, 25% of them reach $10K tonight on one site or the other with no other pitcher exceeding $9K on both sites. Most expensively on either site, it’s 23 consecutive Quality Starts for Framber Valdez, who’s strikeout rate is up to 23.1% after punching out 11 last time out. He’s the rare pitcher who consistently works deep into games despite marginal control (8.6 BB%). This is because he generates two-thirds (66.7%) of his contact on the ground, allowing just 4.9% Barrels/BBE and erasing a lot of those walks. His 2.64 ERA is below estimators ranging from 3.12 xFIP to a 3.48 DRA, but he plays in front of one of the best defenses in the league (21 Runs Prevented) and his .272 BABIP is actually higher than what the defense allows (.265). While the Tigers have been better against LHP (103 wRC+, 21.9 K%), it comes with no power (7.7 HR/FB) and they are the worst offense in baseball against curveballs since the break (-1.41 wCB/C). Valdez has a good one (28%, -1.2 RV/100, 44.6 Whiff%, .220 wOBA, .212 xwOBA). Valdez is currently the third best projecting pitcher on the board and a middle of the board projected value. For more on tonight’s top two projecting pitchers and values, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Framer Valdez has a K-BB exactly at 20% with a 59.9 GB%. The exit velocity is at 90.9 mph, but less of a problem with all of the strikeouts. He’s allowed 14 Barrels, but is also near the top of the league in innings pitched. Valdez has recorded seventh inning outs in six of his nine starts. A 4.13 xERA is his only estimator not at least a quarter of a run below his 3.82 ERA. He’s struck out at least seven in four of his last five starts. The Mariners have just a 74 wRC+, 27 K% and 11.7 HR/FB vs LHP this year. The lineup has had some turnover since the start of the season and they have accumulated a few interesting RH bats, but with LHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Valdez in his career, he’s unlikely to be facing any RHBs who are above a 120 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. Valdez is the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, $100 behind Zach Davies, at exactly $10K, but with a much superior matchup. To recap, a heavy workload with high strikeout upside in a negative run environment: Framber Valdez is your top pitcher on a board without many strong arms on Tuesday night.

Framber Valdez generates ground balls (67.9%) with a 21.6 K% as a starter, so it’s natural with a great defense behind him (Astros .269 BABIP) that he should have some success. Yet, he has a 7.32 ERA despite a 3.94 xFIP over this span (35.2 innings) due to an astounding 57.1 HR/FB. He’s allowed just 14 fly balls over this span and eight of them have left the yard. The other issue is a 12.3 BB%, but at least the HR rate can’t possibly be sustained and the walks are factored into the xFIP. Further good news is that over the last 30 days, Valdez has a .322 xwOBA, a mark 54 points better than actual results. Valdez is not a cash game play, but at less than $7K, he does have some upside in this spot. The projected Seattle lineup has four batters above a 26 K% vs LHP this season and also only four above a .165 ISO against southpaws this year. Valdez is a high risk GPP play, just two starts removed from striking out eight of 25 Angels.

Framber Valdez has a 10.7 K-BB% through 42.1 innings. That’s not very impressive, but estimators are all within a half run of his 3.61 ERA. A 60.2 GB% has really been his dominating trait thus far. That’s allowed him to generate a 5.0% Barrels/BBE mark despite an 89.2 mph aEV, resulting in a .298 xwOBA. Pittsburgh is known as a low power contact prone team. The truth is, they retain only one of those tendencies against LHP this year. They have a team 75 wRC+ and 13.0 Hard-Soft%, but with a 19.6 K-BB% vs LHP. Valdez is not a pitcher with a ton of upside, but he costs less than $7K on DraftKings in a favorable run environment.