| Date | Opp | DKSAL | FDSAL | DKFPTS | FDFPTS | sf | ab | slg | h | so | hbp | gidp | 1b | babip | 2b | pa | 3b | sb | hr | xbh | r | obp | rbi | iso | bb | ops | ibb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-08-22 | vs. WSH | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-08-21 | @ WSH | $5.1K | -- | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
| 2020-08-19 | vs. NYM | $3.5K | $2.8K | 7 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1.25 | 0 |
| 2020-08-18 | vs. NYM | $4K | $2.8K | 12 | 15.2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 1.75 | 0 |
| 2020-08-17 | vs. NYM | $4K | $2.8K | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.17 | 0 |
| 2020-08-15 | vs. ATL | $3.7K | $2.7K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-08-14 | vs. ATL | $3.4K | $2.7K | 7 | 9.2 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 |
| 2020-08-12 | @ TOR | $4.3K | $2.5K | 16 | 21.4 | 0 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.93 | 0 |
| 2020-08-11 | @ TOR | $4.6K | $2.5K | 18 | 25.7 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 1.25 | 0 |
| 2020-08-08 | @ NYM | $3.6K | $2.4K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-08-07 | @ NYM | $3.3K | $2.4K | 18 | 25.7 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 1.25 | 0 |
| 2020-08-06 | vs. BAL | $3.6K | $2.4K | 12 | 15.4 | 0 | 4 | 0.75 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 1.25 | 0 |
| 2020-08-05 | @ BAL | $8.7K | $2.2K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-08-04 | @ BAL | -- | -- | 14 | 18.7 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 1.25 | 0 |
| 2020-07-26 | @ PHI | $3.1K | $2.1K | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
| 2020-07-24 | @ PHI | $3.2K | $2K | 7 | 9.2 | 0 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 |
| 2019-10-07 | @ STL | $6K | $2.1K | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2019-10-03 | vs. STL | $3K | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-09-29 | @ NYM | $2.8K | $2.1K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-09-28 | @ NYM | $3K | $2.1K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-09-27 | @ NYM | $2.9K | $2.1K | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
| 2019-09-25 | @ KC | $3.3K | $2.1K | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 |
| 2019-09-24 | @ KC | $3.1K | $2.1K | 14 | 18.7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 |
| 2019-09-22 | vs. SF | $2.9K | $2.2K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-09-21 | vs. SF | $2.6K | $2.2K | 20 | 28.4 | 0 | 3 | 1.33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.83 | 0 |
| 2019-09-19 | vs. PHI | $2.7K | $2.3K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-09-10 | @ PHI | $3K | $2.4K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-09-08 | vs. WSH | $2.5K | $2.4K | 7 | 9.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 2019-09-02 | vs. TOR | -- | -- | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 |
| 2019-08-28 | @ TOR | -- | -- | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2019-08-26 | @ COL | -- | -- | 13 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 1.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 1.75 | 0 |
| 2019-08-24 | @ NYM | -- | -- | 21 | 28.7 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.75 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 3 | 0.4 | 0 | 1.6 | 0 |
| 2019-05-25 | vs. LAD | -- | -- | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 2019-05-21 | vs. COL | -- | -- | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2019-05-15 | @ ARI | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-05-13 | @ ARI | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-05-12 | @ STL | -- | -- | 15 | 18.2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 1.8 | 0 |
| 2019-05-10 | @ STL | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-05-09 | @ STL | -- | -- | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
| 2019-05-07 | vs. TEX | -- | -- | 13 | 18.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 |
| 2019-05-04 | vs. OAK | -- | -- | 7 | 9.5 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.67 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.17 | 0 |
| 2019-05-03 | vs. OAK | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-04-30 | @ TEX | -- | -- | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2019-04-27 | @ LAD | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-04-26 | @ LAD | -- | -- | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2019-04-24 | vs. ARI | -- | -- | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
| 2019-04-23 | vs. ARI | -- | -- | 9 | 12.5 | 0 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 1.17 | 0 |
| 2019-04-21 | vs. SF | -- | -- | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 |
| 2019-04-20 | vs. SF | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-04-19 | vs. SF | -- | -- | 11 | 16.2 | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 |
| 2019-04-17 | @ DET | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-04-16 | @ DET | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-04-14 | @ WSH | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-04-13 | @ WSH | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-04-12 | @ WSH | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-04-11 | @ CHC | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-04-10 | @ CHC | -- | -- | 19 | 24.9 | 0 | 4 | 1.25 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 1.75 | 0 |
| 2019-04-08 | @ CHC | -- | -- | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| 2019-04-07 | vs. CIN | -- | -- | 5 | 6.2 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
| 2019-04-06 | vs. CIN | -- | -- | 5 | 6.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 2019-04-05 | vs. CIN | -- | -- | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
| 2019-04-04 | vs. CIN | -- | -- | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
| 2019-04-03 | vs. STL | -- | -- | 7 | 9.2 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 |
| 2019-04-01 | vs. STL | -- | -- | 4 | 6.2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
| 2019-03-31 | @ CIN | -- | -- | 9 | 12.2 | 0 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.93 | 0 |
| 2019-03-28 | @ CIN | -- | -- | 5 | 6.2 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Francisco Cervelli Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
RHBs have hammered Jacob Waguespack (.367 wOBA, .392 xwOBA)
Jacob Waguespack does not miss bats (18.6 K%) and owns an 88.9 mph aEV with a 3.63 ERA predicated on a .267 BABIP and 10.7 HR/FB that are likely to regress. Non-FIP estimators are closer to five, but the interesting thing is that he’s shown a reverse split thus far with RHBs (.367 wOBA) 160 points better than LHBs (.207) and this is well supported by Statcast (.392 xwOBA, .275) as well as 44.8 Hard% and 39.1 GB% for same handed batters (LHBs 30.4 Hard%, 46.4 GB%). For an Atlanta offense above five implied runs (5.13), that makes Ronald Acuna Jr. (124 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Josh Donaldson (131 wRC+, .259 ISO) the most interesting bats here and potentially makes Francisco Cervelli (four extra-base hits in nine PAs for Atlanta) and Dansby Swanson (92 wRC+, .184 ISO) your value plays. Cervelli costs less than $3K on either site.
Pirates Bats a Contrarian Option
The Pirates have just a 3.79 implied total despite a matchup with Adam Wainwright, who hasn’t looked good since 2017. Wainwright has a 4.71 ERA / 4.73 xFIP with a 9.5 K-BB% on the year. He also has just a 6.8% SwStr , a 40.5% hard contact rate and a 9% barrel rate allowed. Since 2017, Wainwright has a 4.91 ERA / 4.43 xFIP and 10 K-BB%. Josh Bell (.373 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2017), Starling Marte (.345), Adam Frazier (.338) Colin Moran (.334) and Francisco Cervelli (.333) have all been above average vs. RHP since 2018 and are options tonight. Mellky Cabrera (.323) is batting 3rd and is just $3.8k on Draftkings. Josh Bell has been by far the hottest hitter on the Pirates with a .474 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Bryan Reynolds (129 wRC+ in AA last year) will bat 5th at just $3.5k.
Catch The Savings
On DK, Francisco Cervelli is priced way down at $3,200, and will be easy plug and play against Jose Quintana tonight assuming he's in the lineup. Quintana is just an average pitcher against righties and Cervelli's strong plate skills against lefties was good for a .360 wOBA.
Wind won't help this pitcher throw strikes
The winds are blowing in at Wrigley and a peek inside the premium Weather Edge too suggests it’s going to be pretty damn hard to hit the ball out of the park tonight. This means load up on pitching, right? Not so fast. Yu Darvish takes the mound for the Cubs. He’s walked 30.6% of the batters he’s seen this season. While wind does severely effect power, it won’t make Darvish throw strikes. In fact, Weather Edge suggests the significance to overall weather environment isn’t nearly as dramatic. Lastly, this game will feature a very hitter friendly umpire, Manny Gonzalez. While the Pirates feature a more contact prone lineup than a high powered one, and affordable Pittsburgh stack can be considered in case Darvish continues to walk the park. Adam Frazier (134 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Starling Marte (115 wRC+, .180 ISO) and Francisco Cervelli (123 wRC+, .161 ISO) are all well above average hitters against RHP in the top half of this lineup.
Reverse split gives us a nice value play at Catcher
Heath Fillmyer has really struggled with same-handed batters (.362 wOBA, 49.5 Hard%) in his short major league tenure. Though they don't have much power, the Pirates do have two RHBs who hit RHP well: Starling Marte (115 wRC+, .174 ISO) and Francisco Cervelli (128 wRC+, .178 ISO). The latter would seem a nice value at a tough position for less than $4K on either site with the Pirates projected at a formidable 4.51 implied runs by oddsmakers. While Fillmyer has been much better against LHBs (.290 wOBA), xwOBA raises that mark 46 points. An affordable Pittsburgh stack is not out of the question.
A Low-Owned Risk/Reward Stack
Are you considering the Pirates as a top GPP stack tonight? It's not a crazy idea. Heath Fillmyer has no strikeout ability, a 10% walk rate, and a 40% hard contact rate allowed. He's shown some signs of reverse splits, too, which makes Starling Marte and Francisco Cervelli interesting options here. From there, you can fill out a stack with the likes of Adam Frazier, assuming he grabs the leadoff spot, or a value play like Colin Moran. With all their injuries, there might be some other potential value in this lineup, too. Keep an eye on this lineup when it gets released.
Francisco Cervelli (illness) scratched Monday; Jacob Stallings replaces
Cervelli has been scratched from the Pirates original confirmed lineup and will not start in Monday’s matchup against the Kansas City Royals due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jacob Stallings, who will handle the catching duties and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Corey Dickerson up to the three-hole, sliding Josh Bell back to clean-up, while Jordan Luplow, Kevin Kramer, Kevin Newman each move up one batting position to fifth, sixth, and seventh, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Pirates order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Brad Keller at home this evening.
RHBs have a 73 point higher xwOBA than actual wOBA against this fly ball prone pitcher
The Pirates are less than one half run removed from the top of the board at 4.86 implied runs at home against Dan Straily. He normally doesn't have much of a split, but LHBs (.357 wOBA) are 70 points above RHBs against him. However, with a similar hard hit rate above 45% and ground ball rate below 35%, xwOBA has RHBs at .360 and LHBs as .375. The reason for the optimism on the Pittsburgh lineup is now apparent. Gregory Polanco (129 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP this season), Francisco Cervelli (136 wRC+, .188 ISO) and Starling Marte (113 wRC+, .170 ISO) are the top bats in this lineup. Corey Dickerson (111 wRC+, .186 ISO) is going through his second straight post-All-Star break swoon (-24 wRC+ last seven days). Kevin Kramer (141 wRC+ at AAA) is the cheap top of the lineup bat.
Highest implied run line in this park in a while
Possibly their highest home implied run total of the season and if not, at least in a very long time, the Pirates (5.05) are one of four offenses above five runs as they are set to host the Reds. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Homer Bailey this season and the bullpen isn't much better (5.04 FIP last 30 days). Jose Osuna is the only batter among the first seven in the order not above a 105 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Colin Moran (107 wRC+, .121 ISO) the only other one among that group not above a 110 wRC+ and .170 ISO. The top third of the order is very expensive on DraftKings tonight, more affordable on FanDuel. However, Francisco Cervelli (135 wRC+, .191 ISO) in the cleanup spot is less than $4K, along with Corey Dickerson (112 wRC+, .188 ISO) one spot behind him.
Still struggles with LHBs and facing a balanced, contact prone lineup
The Pirates (4.53) are the lowest of three offenses above 4.5 implied runs on Monday afternoon. The contact prone offense may have some value against Matt Harvey (LHBs .351 wOBA, 42.2 Hard%, 38.9 GB% this season). In fact, each of the first seven batters they send to the plate has at least a 105 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Gregory Polanco (124 wRC+, .262 ISO) is the only one above a .200 ISO, but Adam Frazier (120 wRC+, .184 ISO) and Corey Dickerson (114 wRC+, .190 ISO) come at reasonable cost, the latter just $2.4K on FanDuel due to recent struggles (5 wRC+ last seven days). Starling Marte (117 wRC+, .178 ISO) and Francisco Cervelli (137 wRC+, .196 ISO) play also against a pitcher with a fairly average .318 wOBA, 35.3 Hard% and 45.1 GB% against RHBs as well.