Freddy Galvis Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

After posting a 3.11 ERA in 2018, Trevor Williams has regressed hard in 2019 as he currently has a 5.65 ERA, 5.24 xFIP, 5.12 SIERA and 10.4% K-BB. Williams has really been done in by the long ball this year; his 1.69 HR/9 is more than double his 2018 rate of 0.79 HR/9. Over the past 30 days, Willliams has struggled even more with a 7.92 ERA / 6.60 SIERA, 2.52 HR/9 and .369 xwOBA allowed. He is a bit worse vs. lefties (.344 xwOBA allowed vs. LHP, .310 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB since 2018) but hitters from both sides of the plate can be used vs. him. Derek Dietrich (.369 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Aristides Aquino (.366), Josh VanMeter (.349) and Eugenio Suarez (.316) are all good options tonight vs. Williams. Aquino has been the Reds’ hottest hitter over the past 2 weeks with a .390 xwOBA, followed by Jose Peraza with a .384 mark. Freddy Galvis has mostly struggled this year, but does have a .342 xwOBA vs. RHP since joining the Reds. Josh VanMeter ($4k on DK, projected to leadoff) and Derek Dietrich ($4k on DK, projected to bat 5th) both have the platoon advantage and look like solid, affordable plays.

If you’re spending up on pitching tonight, the Blue Jays lineup has some cheap value bats that could help form your lineup. The Blue Jays are in Chicago to face Ivan Nova, who has had a rough year with a 6.29 ERA / 4.64 xFIP / 4.79 SIERA and a 9.5 K-BB%. With a 42.8% GB rate, Nova does a solid job keeping the ball out of the air, but his .343 xwOBA allowed suggests he does give up some loud contact. Nova has been more vulnerable vs. LHB with a .359 xwOBA allowed vs. lefties since 2018 as opposed to a .315 xwOBA allowed vs. righties. Justin Smoak ($3.9k on DK, .381 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Rowdy Tellez ($3.7k, .354), Billy Mckinney ($3.4k, .325), Eric Sogard ($4.4k, .300) and Freddy Galvis ($4k, .279) are left-handed options in the Blue Jays lineup. Vlad Guerrero Jr. won’t have the platoon advantage vs. Nova but is just $4.1k and projects to bat 2nd; he has started to heat up with a .401 xwOBA over the past 10 days, Smoak has been the Jays’ hottest hitter with a .455 xwOBA over the past 10 days. The ‘Jays have a 4.4 implied total vs. Nova and the White Sox tonight.

The Blue Jays get a matchup at home in the Rogers Centre vs. Lucas Giolito, who has certainly shown some flashes this year but can still be a pitcher to target. Giolito has a solid 4.06 ERA / 3.63 xFIP and 17.7 K-BB% so far this year. That said, Giolito still projects for about a 5 ERA over the rest of the season per THE BAT and Steamer. For his career, Giolito has a .357 xwOBA vs. LHB compared to a .333 xwOBA vs. RHB. Freddy Galvis (.290 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018) is just $3.6k on Draftkings and leading off for the Jays. Vlad Guerrero Jr. (175 wRC+ in AAA last year) bats 2nd at just $3.5k due to his slow start. Justin Smoak (.377 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Rowdy Tellez (.363) and Randall Grichuk (.318) are batting 3-4-5 and are all under $4k. Teoscar Hernandez (.330) bats 7th and is just $3.4k. The Blue Jays have a 4.32 implied line vs. Giolito and the White Sox Sunday Afternoon.

The Blue Jays will face Dylan Covey at home in hitter-friendly Rogers Centre tonight. Covey is a career 6.06 ERA / 4.85 xFIP pitcher with a 4.9 K-BB%. This will be Covey’s 2nd start of 2019; he briefly started the year in the bullpen and was quickly demoted to AAA, but was recently called back up to take the place of Carlos Rodon. Covey normally does a good job keeping the ball on the ground (career 51.7% GB rate) but allows a ton of baserunners with a career 1.57 WHIP. Covey has been worse vs. lefties with a .368 xwOBA and 1.67 HR/9 vs. LHB in his career, with a .339 xwOBA and 1.32 HR/9 vs. RHB. Notable lefties in the Jays’ projected lineup include Justin Smoak (.377 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Rowdy Tellez (.361), Eric Sogard (.299, likely leading off) and Freddy Galvis (.279). Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Randall Grichuk (.316) are both decent right-handed options. With the exception of Eric Sogard ($4.5k), all Blue Jays bats are $4k or less on Draftkings tonight. The Blue Jays have a 4.82 implied total vs. Covey and the White Sox.

Stacking against Matt Moore is never a bad idea in DFS. In 2018, Moore had a 6.79 ERA, 5.06 xFIP, .365 xwOBA and 1.68 HR/9 over 102 innings in 2018. The Blue Jays will stack their lineup with 9 RHB vs. Moore this afternoon in Toronto, many of these guys can be had at an affordable price. Danny Jansen is arguably the best catcher play on the board today, leading off and priced at $3.8k on DK. Brandon Drury remains cheap at $3.5k and will be in the 2 spot. Randall Grichuk (.360 xwOBA vs. LHP in 2018) has nice upside at an affordable price of $4.3k. Lourdes Gurriel, Kevin Pillar and Freddy Galvis are lineup-filling options towards the bottom of the order than can be had for under $4k.

R.A. Dickey has shown that he can still be an extremely hittable pitcher at this stage of his career, coming off of two straight outings allowing exactly four earned runs, but he seems to do just enough, consistently enough, to limit damage that the Atlanta Braves are able to keep utilizing him as an innings eater for their young and eventually up and coming squad. This year, Dickey has seen a small drop in his already low strikeout rate, down to 15.6% to go along with a 9.3% walk rate. As usual with his knuckleball, Dickey has managed to induce groundballs at a respectable clip (47.9%) and limit hard contact to just 26.8% of the time. With the aforementioned low strikeouts and high walks, it's difficult to imagine Dickey's 4.31 ERA continuing to improve with a 5.15 SIERA, and he has allowed a minimum of three runs in 12 of 20 starts this season. When attacking Dickey with opposing batters, a problem arises with a bit of guesswork in figuring out which individual batters to utilize against him, as the nature of a knuckleball makes at bat outcomes relatively unpredictable. This makes the Philadelphia Phillies more of a stack or fade situation in tournaments this afternoon since there should be plenty of baserunners with a high probability of home runs but difficult to predict where said production will come from. Aaron Altherr (150 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .267 ISO vs RHP) and Nick Williams (118 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .192 ISO vs RHP) are the clear top targets from this Phillies offense, while Freddy Galvis (.190 ISO vs RHP), Cesar Hernandez (108 wRC+, .341 wOBA vs RHP), and Tommy Joseph (.177 ISO vs RHP) are more of second tier options but are logical members to round out a Phillies stack in tournaments if deciding to deploy that strategy on Sunday's main slate.