Gavin Lux Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Even for pitching half his games in Coors, Lambert’s numbers are just terrible. On the year, Lambert has put up a 6.98 ERA / 5.23 xFIP / 5.53 SIERA with a 4.7% K-BB, 1.71 WHIP, 38.7% hard contact rate and 7% SwStr. He’s also allowed a .361 xwOBA and 88.7 MPH aEV. He’s been even worse over the past 30 days despite 3 of 5 starts coming away from Coors: 8.41 ERA, 6.39 SIERA, -2.9% K-BB, 2.21 WHIP and .429 xwOBA allowed. Even being at home in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium tonight, the Dodgers are in one of the best spots on the slate. Cody Bellinger (.435 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Max Muncy (.384), Justin Turner (.363), Gavin Lux (.353), Joc Pederson (.350), Matt Beaty (.346), Will Smith (.328), Corey Seager (.327) and AJ Pollock (.326) are all good options tonight in the LAD projected order. Pollock hasn’t been all that great this year, but has really heated up with a .459 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Gavin Lux has also seen the ball well with a .395 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. With the exception of Cody Bellinger ($5.5k) Dodgers’ bats are pretty affordable as they are all available for $4.5k or less on Draftkings. Joc Pederson is projected to leadoff at just $4.2k, Beaty is projected to hit 3rd at $4k, and Lux will bat lower in the order at just $3.7k. They currently have a solid 5.90 implied line vs. Lambert and the Rox.

Dylan Bundy has been a competent contact manager this season. No…really. He’s allowed 28 HRs in 27 starts and still has a 17.9 HR/FB that’s above average in a power friendly park, but his 30.8% 95+ mph EV and 6.1% Barrels/BBE are both better than average and his .313 xwOBA is 27 points better than actual results and in line with a 4.53 SIERA that’s better than his 5.06 ERA. It still may not be enough against a Dodger lineup that terrorizes RHP (115 wRC+, 10.4 K-BB%, 18 HR/FB). It’s not just Cody Bellinger (168 wRC+, .335 ISO vs RHP) and Joc Pederson (136 wRC+, .318 ISO) either. Matt Beaty (138 wRC+, .241 ISO) moves into the two slot here and looks to be the value play in this lineup. In fact, each of the first five batters in the order are above a .210 ISO vs RHP this year. The Dodgers are the top projected offense on this slate (6.11 runs). Gavin Lux has just a .312 wOBA vs RHP thus far, but a .403 xwOBA and costs within $600 of $3K on either site.

Jeff Samardzija has a 3.61 ERA that’s well below estimators due to a .244 BABIP. He’s generated just 36.3% ground balls with an 89 mph aEV, which has resulted in 8.4% Barrels/BBE. This may play well enough in San Francisco, but it’s unlikely to lead him towards success on the road against the Dodgers (116 wRC+, 10.4 K-BB%, 18.1 HR/FB vs RHP). Samardzija has not yet had the displeasure of facing the Dodgers on the road this season, but his issues with LHBs (.329 wOBA, .344 xwOBA) has to oddsmakers gracing the home team with the third highest implied run line on the board (5.45) currently. The projected lineup for the Dodgers shows five LHBs and aside from Gavin Lux, each of the other four are above a 115 wRC+ and .220 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Joc Pederson (137 wRC+, .330 ISO) has been pure fire over the last week (423 wRC+, five HRs), which Cody Bellinger (170 wRC+, .342 ISO) has been doing all year. Corey Seager (136 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Matt Beaty (136 wRC+, .232 ISO) cost less than $4K on either site.

Dodger Stadium is one of the most negative run environments in all of baseball, but with the weather cooling, that doesn’t seem as much of an offensive handicap tonight, as Weather Edge (premium subscription required) suggests not too many environments get an run scoring boost tonight. Then there’s Antonio Senzatela, who faces a ferocious Dodger offense (116 wRC+, 10.2 K-BB%, 18 HR/FB vs RHP) with the worst K-BB (1.7%) and Z-Contact (91.7%) on the board. Over the last month, it gets even worse (7.9 K%, .365 xwOBA). If you think this is mostly a product of Coors, he has a .381 xwOBA on the road this year as well. Once again, despite the negative run environment, the Dodgers have a 6.31 implied run line that leads the board and might give someone the wrong impression that this game is being played at Coors. With the exceptions of Justin Turner (131 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Cody Bellinger (171 wRC+, .348 ISO) firmly entrenched in the three and four spots, this lineup is generally pretty fluid. Considering the .390 wOBA and .367 xwOBA RHBs have against Senzatela over the last 12 months, any left-handed bats that appear in this lineup are likely fine plays. Gavin Lux still costs less than $4K on DraftKIngs and just $2.5K on FanDuel. Joc Pederson (132 wRC+, .315 ISO) has a 338 wRC+ over the last week.