Hanser Alberto Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Dillon Peters is a career 5.45 ERA / 5.02 xFIP pitcher over 72 2/3 innings despite seeing a good amount of those innings in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. He also owned a 6.47 ERA / 5.33 FIP / 4.81 xFIP over 57 innings in AAA this year with an ugly 1.74 HR/9. Per Statcast he 352 xwOBA allowed and 89.8 MPH aEV in his career. The Orioles haven’t been a good offense this year by any measure, but they do have a 101 wRC+ over the past 30 days and some intriguing options in their lineup tonight. Trey Mancini (.388 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Pedro Severino (.382), Renato Nunez, Anthony Santander (.308) and Hanser Alberto (.295) are all good options tonight. Santander has been their hottest hitter with a .394 xwOBA over the past 30 days, followed by Renato Nunez (.346) and Trey Mancini (.345). Alberto and Severino are both nice values on Draftkings as they are under $3.4k. As a whole, the Orioles are a very affordable stack on both sites and will likely see very low ownership. They currently have a 4.11 implied line vs. the Angels and make for a solid contrarian play tonight.

If you’re playing the late afternoon slate, it might be wise to look at stacking against Yusei Kikuchi, who has really struggled. Over the past 30 days, Kikuchi has posted a 6.11 SIERA, 6.49 xFIP, 10.35 ERA, 0.9% K-BB and 42.7% hard contact rate. He’s allowed a .456 xwOBA (!!) and 89.2 MPH aEV over that time frame. The Orioles don’t have a good offense, but they are in a great spot here and will have plenty of affordable bats in their lineup for this matchup. Pedro Severino (.428 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Trey Mancini (.402) and Renato Nunez (.346) have all mashed LHP this year; Mancini is $4.7k on Draftkings but Severino and Nunez can be had under $4k. Hanser Alberto (.287) will leadoff, and Jonathan Villar (.249) is also a nice play given the stolen base potential. Keon Broxton is also in play with a career 103 wRC+ vs. LHP and a price of just $2.9k on Draftkings. The Mariners bullpen as a whole has also struggled with a 7th worst 4.53 SIERA over the past 30 days. The Orioles have a 4.03 implied total vs. Kikuchi and the Mariners Sunday afternoon.

Brian Johnson hasn’t shown a ton of success in the Majors: In 136 career innings as a starter and reliever, Johnson has a 4.69 ERA / 4.94 xFIP / 4.50 SIERA with a 10.8% K-BB, 1.58 HR/9, 43.5% FB rate and just a 7.6% SwStr. The Orioles haven’t been a great offense this year but have a decent amount of solid options vs. LHP and are very affordable. Pedro Severino (.432 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Trey Mancini (.418), Renato Nunez, (.352), Hanser Alberto (.282) and Keon Broxton (.278) are all intriguing options today in the Baltimore lineup. Alberto will leadoff and costs just $3.4k on Draftkings. Severino is batting 3rd at just $4k and will likely be a very popular play given that he has mashed LHP this year. Renato Nunez is also a good value batting 4th at just $4k. Anthony Santander is another option at just $3.9k, he has a 172 wRC+ this year although in just 34 PA. Severino and Mancini have been the Orioles’ hottest hitters; each have an xwOBA over .400 the last 14 days. The Orioles currently have a 4.71 implied line versus Johnson and the Red Sox.

We got to see the rare pitching duel between the Tigers and Orioles in Baltimore last night, but a repeat performance shouldn’t be expected on Wednesday. Ryan Carpenter has just an 8.0 SwStr% over three starts with 49% of his contact above a 95 mph EV, resulting in a 27.8 HR/FB so far. While neither that or his 9.00 ERA are likely sustainable, a 4.66 SIERA is his lowest estimator, while sitting on a .356 xwOBA. Carpenter’s career is still a very small sample, but batters from either side of the plate are above a .400 wOBA against him. Hanser Alberto (172 wRC+, .169 ISO) and Renato Nunez (115 wRC+, .219 ISO) are the only batters in the Baltimore projected lineup above average against LHP over the last calendar year, but Carpenter seems to make most hitters above average against him.

John Means showed some potential in early starts for the O’s, but has just a 12.8 K% and 6.9 SwStr% over his last five with a 5.58 SIERA and .357 xwOBA. RHBs have a career .324 wOBA (.343 xwOBA) against him. He’ll have to face a few more slightly potent bats against LHP, including Miguel Cabrera (165 wRC+, .147 ISO, 50 Hard%), Nick Castellanos (165 wRC+, .213 ISO, 50.5 Hard%) and Ronny Rodriguez (107 wRC+, .227 ISO). Both teams are within a quarter of a run of five implied runs on Wednesday night, but neither is among the top three or four projected offenses tonight.

The Orioles face Kyle Freeland today in Coors field in what looks to be a great spot. Freeland has not been nearly as effective as he was in his breakout 2018; he currently has a 6.02 ERA / 5.23 xFIP / 5.00 SIERA, all three numbers are much higher than they were in 2018. His hard contact is up 12 percentage points to 43.6% and his FB rate has risen 5 points to 40.2%. He also has an ugly .364 xwOBA allowed with a 89.2 aEV and 10.3% barrel rate. Hanser Alberto (161wRC+, .172 ISO vs. LHP since 2018), Jonathan Villar (68 wRC+, .131 ISO), Trey Mancini (100 wRC+, .177 ISO), Renato Nunez (102 wRC+, .185 ISO) and Keon Broxton (55 wRC+, .077 ISO) project as the top 5 hitters in the O’s order. Villar and Broxton have ugly numbers at the plate but are always a threat for a steal or two. Nunez has been the hottest Oriole hitter with a .460 xwOBA over the past 10 days. With the exception of Trey Mancini ($5.5k), all Orioles projected hitters are under $5k on Draftkings. The O’s aren’t a great offense, but their implied total of 4.79 feels low given that they’re playing in Coors and have a matchup versus a struggling starter.

Jeff Banister has rested his players on occasion this year and he will give Odor a breather on Sunday. In addition to Odor, Robinson Chirinos fractured his forearm and will head to the DL. Bryan Holaday will start at catcher for Texas.