Hector Santiago Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Twins haven't been very potent against LHP this year (91 wRC+, 7.8 HR/FB). None the less, their implied run line has shot up a quarter of a run over the course of the afternoon to where it now stands at 5.31, within one-tenth of a run of the top number on the board currently. Only Brian Dozier (162 wRC+, .281 ISO) and Miguel Sano (113 wRC+, .233 ISO) have even been competent against LHP over the last calendar year, but Hector Santiago has been horrible. RHBs have just a .310 wOBA against him since last year, but with a 29.8 GB% (33.3 Hard%) and xwOBA spikes that to .366. LHBs have an other worldly .516 wOBA (.445 xwOBA) and 41.7 Hard% against him over the same span (113 faced). While a small sample size, that would need to regress .200 points to even reach league average. It's probably acceptable and maybe even mandatory to play almost any LHB against him. In this case, Eddie Rosario (93 wRC+, .158 ISO) and Max Kepler (77 wRC+, .189 ISO) would qualify with the Twins making it easy by placing both in the top half of the lineup.

The Brewers have a fairly moderate 4.54 implied run line against Hector Santiago, against whom RHBs have a .361 xwOBA up 55 points from their actual .306 wOBA since last season, but LHBs have a .511 wOBA and .453 xwOBA. This is a perfectly stackable situation right through the first five or six batters. Lorenzo Cain is not only the top bat against LHP over the last calendar year (190 wRC+, .261 ISO), but he personally owns Santago. He does not have a HR in his 26 PAs against him, but four doubles, a .559 xwOBA, 92.7 mph aEV and 19.8 LA. If Santiago serves it up, Cain has generally crushed it. If considering the two LHBs, Christian Yelich (101 wRC+, .324 xwOBA) has had more recent success than Travis Shaw (77 wRC+, .245 xwOBA) against same-handed pitching.

There are seven pitchers on tonight's slate averaging right around or fewer than five innings per start this year. A few of those spots are easy enough to skip further analysis on. The Yankees have the best bullpen in baseball (22.5 K-BB%, 3.16 FIP) behind Sonny Gray and bullpens in Coors just don't matter enough to make much of a difference (though both teams are strong in that area). Jaime Garcia completed six innings for the first time since his first start last time out. The Blue Jays have a 4.16 FIP that's seventh worst in baseball, but with a mediocre 13.4 K-BB%. Jaime Barria has a chance to go deeper than usual in a strong spot against the Rangers, but the Angels have similar pen numbers to the Jays (4.07 FIP, 13.7 K-BB%). Elieser Hernandez has averaged exactly five innings in three starts. The Miami bullpen has a 4.46 FIP and 10.4 K-BB% and have been even worse than that recently (5.40 FIP, -1.6 K-BB% last 14 days) if players have any interest in Arizona bats. Tyler Chatwood has been walking himself right out of the park (20.3 BB%!!). The Cubs back him with one of the stronger pens by FIP (3.51), but their 12.6 K-BB% is less impressive. Hector Santiago has gone beyond five innings in just one of five starts. The damage may already be done by the time it gets to a pen that's been halfway decent (3.99 FIP, 13.2 K-BB%), but is not one to fear.

Hector Santiago has pitched mostly out of the bullpen for the White Sox this season and for good reason. In three starts, he has allowed 12 runs in 13 innings with 12 walks and nine strikeouts (two home runs). While he's actually been better against RHBs since last season, xwOBA brings him up 48 points to .339 against them, which is around his career mark and good news for a Baltimore offense that lines up eight righties against him. This lineup has a 4.57 implied run line that's fourth highest on the board, but only Manny Machado (126 wRC+, .260 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) above $3.8K on either site. Jonathan Schoop (165 wRC+, .287 ISO) is still under-priced. Danny Valencia (116 wRC+, .211 ISO) and Trey Mancini (110 wRC+, .151 ISO) are the only other two bats to reach a 110 wRC+ or .150 ISO against southpaws over the last calendar year.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are the last of four teams that Vegas has above five runs (5.07) this afternoon. Hector Santiago has an ERA and estimators well above five with most of his work coming out of the bullpen this year. While he's had a standard or no platoon split for most of his career, it's been completely reversed since last season. He's faced 101 LHBs, who have a .531 wOBA (.457 xwOBA), while RHBs have a .338 xwOBA that's near his actual career wOBA against them. Not necessarily buying into the small sample size, the Pirates load six RHBs into the lineup, though Starling Marte is not one of them. While Corey Dickerson is a league average bat (100 wRC+) against same-handed pitching over the last calendar year, both he and Gregory Polanco (the other LHB) have an ISO below .140 against same-handed pitching over that span. The really interesting thing is that they are the only two bats in the lineup above $3.3K on either site. While there aren't very many high priced options, Pittsburgh bats will probably get players anywhere they want to go with pitching. While the park does suppress right-handed power, it plays more neutrally to right-handed offense and run scoring overall. None the less, Jose Osuna (113 wRC+, .241 ISO) is an interesting bat in the cleanup spot this afternoon.

As the rest of the country heats up, Detroit and MInnesota are left behind in a chill. Temperatures in both parks are expected to remain the mid-50's throughout the games, but the game between Royals and Twins adds an additional element with a bit of a breeze blowing in from CF at 10 mph. It's not a massive game changer and probably not enough to keep Miguel Sano in the park if he gets a hold of one, but could hinder the carry for two pitchers (Nate Karns and Hector Santiago) who have had issues with hard contact and HRs. The favorable conditions make Karns especially attractive with a career low walk rate (7.7%) and coming off 22 strikeouts (48 BF) over his last two starts.

There are not a lot of BvP products that grade out strongly among metrics that are more likely to mean something, but the few that players can find tonight do look particularly strong. Chris Davis has four HRs (28 PAs) against ground-baller Aaron Sanchez, whose GB rate relaxes to 47.1% against LHBs since last season. Davis, additionally, has a 96 mph aEV on 12 BBEs, second best among those with at least 10 BBEs against the pitcher they are facing tonight. Jose Bautista also has four HRs against the opposing pitcher (Chris Tillman) in twice the opportunities (56 PAs), but also a 94.2 mph aEV on 13 BBEs. He can add four more doubles with nine walks and only 11 Ks in this matchup. Jose Reyes has also homered four times against Ricky Nolasco, but the vast majority of those matchups took place more than five years in the past. Lorenzo Cain has not homered in 23 PAs against Hector Santiago, but has does have four doubles against an outstanding 98.7 mph aEV (12 BBEs) against a pitcher who has lived dangerously with a lot of hard contact (RHBs 37.7% since last season) in the air (RHBs 31.1 GB% since last season).

Trey Mancini and his small sample size against LHP (214 wRC+, .467) is vaulted to the head of the RotoGrinders HR Predictor tonight (8.89%). Perhaps expectations need to be lessened a bit with an unexpected venture into the seventh spot in the lineup. Eric Thames (7.24%) has a similar caveat, but his numbers just can't be ignored (262 wRC+, .524 ISO vs RHP). Nelson Cruz (6.97%) is the first full sample size batter to show up (6.97%). Sean Manaea has shown elite bat missing skills, but RHBs have a 33.9 Hard% against him. The most interesting name might be fourth because it's an extremely affordable Catcher. James McCann (6.53%) costs less than $3K on either site. He has a 130 wRC+, .292 ISO vs LHP since last year and Hector Santiago, who has a 37.5 Hard% against RHBs since 2015 and has allowed a 91.2 mph aEV this season, one of the higher marks in the league.

Three batters have homered three times against the pitcher they are facing tonight. One (Joe Mauer vs Justin Verlander) may have too much old data attached to it. Statcast record just seven BBE in the matchup with an aEV of just 84.6 mph. Matt Carpenter has punished Wily Peralta (98.1 mph aEV, 13 BBE) with eight extra-base hits total in 46 PA. Jose Abreu is the surprise here, but he has hit Corey Kluber really well, including a 94.1 mph aEV on 12 BBE, despite striking out nine times as well in 35 PA with just a single walk. Kluber has struggled some to start the season and Abreu has hit RHP fairly well over the last few years (128 wRC+, .193 ISO since 2015) and should see almost no ownership on this 1B rich slate. Among those with at least 10 BBE recorded by Statcast, Carpenter's aEV is exceeded only by Miguel Cabrera (98.9 mph aEV, 14 BBE) vs Hector Santiago, including two HRs. Yet another viable 1B option tonight.

Hector Santiago will face an Indians team that has at least two known lefty-smashers in Mike Napoli and Brandon Guyer. Santiago’s susceptibility versus RHBs has been well documented, and his 50% fly ball percentage and 37% hard hit percentage allowed to RHBs fully support using RHBs for the Indians today. Napoli’s 0.220 ISO against LHP makes him an elite option in a park that is neutral for home run power to RHBs, sitting at 1.02 on the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool.