Howie Kendrick Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Ironically, with similarly expected conditions to Yankee Stadium tonight (temperatures in the mid-60s and negligible wind effects), Weather Edge is showing a run and power decline in such games, which makes quite a bit more sense. Overall, this park has been a positive run environment, though not as much of a power haven as Yankee Stadium.

Dakota Hudson is the low man on the pitching pole today. His 18 K% is more than 10 points below any other pitcher today with a 5.08 SIERA that’s the only mark above four and a .335 xwOBA that’s more than 30 points higher than anyone else. What he does do is keep the ball on the ground for the most part (56.9%) with that mark jumping to 63.9% against RHBs, who had a .285 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against him this year. It makes one wonder if either Asdrubal Cabrera (99 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) or Matt Adams (89 wRC+, .138 ISO) could see the field over Howie Kendrick (136 wRC+, .221 ISO) or Ryan Zimmerman (65 wRC+, .148 ISO) tonight, as LHBs had a .347 wOBA (.369 xwOBA) with a 49.6 GB% against Hudson, but why fix what’s not broken? Juan Soto (155 wRC+, .303 ISO) may be the top overall bat on the slate. Adam Eaton (108 wRC+, .152 ISO) may be your top value. The Nationals top the board with 4.23 implied runs.

On the brink of elimination, a lineup shuffle for the Cardinals in game three had no effect, and there’s probably not much more they could do in game four either. With a 3-0 series lead, Patrick Corbin likely has the longest leash tonight and costs less than $10K on either site. His 28.5 K%, 3.88 SIERA, 3.09 DRA and .303 xwOBA hardly stand out on a four man board that includes Gerrit Cole or even his own rotation, though he was likely one of the top 10 pitchers in the National League. Corbin did have that awful relief outing against the Dodgers, but still struck out 14 of the 41 he faced in the series. Corbin does have the highest aEV (88.9 mph) and Barrels/BBE (9.4%) on the board, so it’s the strikeout rate that really gives him value and it does make some middle of the order St Louis bats interesting here. Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+), Marcell Ozuna (92 wRC+), Jose Martinez (160 wRC+) and Tommy Edman (151 wRC+) all exceeded a .260 ISO vs LHP this year, while Yadier Molina (130 wRC+, .147 ISO) had a .382 xwOBA with the platoon advantage, but has the disadvantage of having the speed of a 37 year-old catcher.

Stephen Strasburg just finished up perhaps the best season of his career by peripherals (29.9 K%, 3.32 ERA, 2.13 DRA, .263 xwOBA), numbers that make him seem merely average on this board though. An added attraction is that he transitions to one of the most negative run environments in baseball tonight. A detraction is that the Dodger offense (115 wRC+, 17.9 HR/FB vs RHP) resides in that environment. It’s tough to side with a RHP against this offense with a projected lineup that includes five batters (Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager and Will Smith) above a .360 wOBA and .230 ISO vs RHP this year. However, it’s tough to stack up this offense against a pitcher who held batters from either side of the plate below a .280 wOBA and .150 ISO this season as well. Anything goes on a four game slate, but this may be the least attractive spot on the board today.

Clayton Kershaw showed signs of his former perennial Cy Young candidate form this year, but also struggled down the stretch, allowing 13 of his 28 HRs this season over his last seven starts. He did finish up the season with six shutout innings in San Diego and another scoreless relief inning in San Francisco, but still had a 6.00 FIP over this span and a dangerous proposition against a Washington team with a 111 wRC+ vs LHP this year without even regarding his familiar post-season narrative. While Kershaw’s post-season failures have been emphasized, he’s also had many quality playoff outings as well. However, players will still probably want to look at Anthony Rendon (.429 wOBA, .301 ISO) and Howie Kendrick (.431 wOBA, .239 ISO), who both hammered LHP this year. Considering that Kershaw had virtually no split this year (LHBs .269 wOBA, .174 ISO), Juan Soto (.355 wOBA, .195 ISO) is just a quality bat, who could be a bit under-valued here. This too is not one of the betters spots on the board for either side today.

Caleb Smith has really struggled over the past 30 days, posting a 6.39 ERA, 6.48 xFIP and 5.70 SIERA with a 2.84 HR/9, 12.8% BB rate and .383 xwOBA allowed. Smith also goes from pitcher’s haven Marlins Park to hitter-friendly Nationals Park, which has been a problem for him over the past few years. Since 2018, Smith has a 4.65 ERA / 5.23 FIP with a .328 xwOBA allowed in road starts, compared to a 3.55 ERA / 3.66 FIP and .302 xwOBA allowed in home starts. The Nationals have a league-leading 141 wRC+ over the past 14 days and have plenty of good options this afternoon: Anthony Rendon (.432 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Yan Gomes (.419), Howie Kendrick (.419), Juan Soto (.369), Trea Turner (.326), Victor Robles (.325) and Ryan Zimmerman (.277) are all in play. Kendrick has been on fire with a .530 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Juan Soto (.479) and Rendon (.424). Robles stands out as a nice value, battign 2nd at just $4k on Draftkings. Turner, Rendon, Soto and Kendrick all cost above $5k on Draftkings. Though he’s batting 7th, Gomes is a great value at just $3.1k given his success vs. lefties. The Nats currently have a 5.83 implied line vs. Smith and the Marlins.

This is not a bad spot for lefty starter Steven Brault in terms of environment or conditions (Pittsburgh is generally a negative run environment that suppresses RH power). However, he brings the second highest walk rate on the slate (11%) with a .356 xwOBA at home since last year to face a team that not only hammers southpaws (109 wRC+, 21.1 K%, 15.5 HR/FB), but is also the hottest offense in the land (160 wRC+, 3.2 K-BB%, 18.7 HR/FB last seven days). The Nationals are the lowest of seven teams above five implied runs (5.07) on a nine game slate. Anthony Rendon (150 wRC+, .307 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is obviously the primary batter you want against Brault (RHBs .340 wOBA, .337 xwOBA last calendar year). However, both Howie Kendrick (130 wRC+, .200 ISO) and Kurt Suzuki (166 wRC+, .271 ISO) are less than $3K on FanDuel. Every player in the Washington projected lineup exceeds a 100 wRC+ vs LHP over the last 12 months, while each of the batters with more than 10 PAs over the last week have at least a 130 wRC+ over that span.

The Nats and Rox are playing two today, so game two lineups are not yet confirmed, but it’s a good bet that the Nationals will be loading up with RHBs against Kyle Freeland in the night cap. Since being recalled from the minors, Freeland has allowed five runs in four innings in both his starts and has just a 9.5 K-BB% with a 21 HR/FB, 5.12 SIERA, 6.26 DRA, .368 xwOBA and 10.2% Barrels/BBE that can’t all be blamed on Coors. Over the last calendar year, RHBs have a .342 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The projected lineup for the Nationals features six RHBs. Among the first five, Brian Dozier (109 wRC+) is the only one below a 120 wRC+ vs LHP over the last calendar year. Anthony Rendon (144 wRC+, .288 ISO), Howie Kendrick (162 wRC+, .247 ISO) and Victor Robles (133 wRC+, .214 ISO) add quite a bit of power to the equation as well. The Nationals find themselves at 5.83 implied runs tonight, behind only the Dodgers on a 16 team board.

Gregory Soto has been atrocious for the Tigers over 17 2/3 innings so far this year, posting an 8.66 ERA / 6.00 xFIP / 5.89 SIERA, with a 3.4% K-BB and 8.5% SwStr. Soto has shown walk issues at pretty much every level, and that sort of thing doesn’t just magically sort itself out in the Majors. Projection systems have Soto as a 5.50+ ERA pitcher going forward and we can continue to target him as long as he stays in the rotation. Soto has averaged just 3.5 innings per start, so Nats’ hitters will likely see a decent amount of plate appearances vs. the Detroit bullpen which has a league-worst 4.70 SIERA on the year. Howie Kendrick (.454 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Anthony Rendon (.445), Yan Gomes (.419), Juan Soto (.360), Victor Robles (.351), Trea Turner (.346), Brian Dozier (.341) and Adam Eaton (.326) are all great options vs. the Tigers today. Kendrick has been their hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .448 xwOBA, followed by Juan Soto with a .422 mark. Eaton (projected to bat 2nd at $3.7k), Brian Dozier ($3.4k) and Yan Gomes ($2.8k) all look like great values. The Nationals currently have a healthy 6.31 implied line vs. Soto and the Tigers this afternoon.

Daniel Norris went seven innings, striking out a season high eight Indians last time out, but still allowed six runs. The lone bright spot in his season is a 5.5 BB%. He has a below average strikeout rate 19% with a 90 Z-Contact%. His 4.69 ERA is justified by a 4.53 SIERA and even seen as optimistic by a 5.64 DRA and .340 xwOBA. He’s allowed far too much hard contact, as his 90.7 mph aEV is worst on the board (42.9% 95+ mph EV is second worst) and he faces an offense that has been very proficient against LHP this year (118 wRC+, 17.3 HR/FB), who gain a DH today. Weather effects are particularly interesting in Detroit tonight and possibly not very favorable for Norris. Weather Edge (premium subscription required) currently shows some potentially power suppressing winds, but those appear to be blowing in from right field (less of a help to Norris, who will likely be facing predominantly RHBs), while the overall hot temperatures may lead to a run scoring boost overall. This could change throughout the afternoon, so premium subscribers will want to re-check conditions before game time. For now, Washington has a 5.73 implied run line that’s tied for the best mark outside Coors tonight. RHBs have a .332 wOBA (.347 xwOBA) with 40% ground ball and hard hit rates against Norris over the last calendar year (LHBs are even better). Anthony Rendon (149 wRC+, .315 ISO), Howie Kendrick (172 wRC+, .254 ISO) and Victor Robles (143 wRC+, .247 ISO) have all hit southpaws very well over the last calendar year. Trea Turner (131 wRC+, .156 ISO) with less power. Kurt Suzuki (125 wRC+, .208 ISO) or Yan Gomes (106 wRC+, .163 ISO) would have some value behind the plate. Both are below $3K on FanDuel, but the latter is just $2.9K on DraftKings as well.

Dallas Keuchel makes his Braves and 2019 debut in Washington tonight. While some may still be considering him some kind of Ace, he had just a 10.9 K-BB% with a 3.74 ERA and matching estimators last year with a 53.7 GB% that was his lowest since his 2012 debut. He’s also been a much more useful real life than daily fantasy pitcher for quite a while now (below a 14 K-BB% three straight years). If Keuchel can continue to generate weak ground balls for a solid Atlanta infield, he should be help this team, but he’s had just two tune up starts, both below AAA and generated just a 44 GB% with a 12.9 K% in his last one in AA. Keuchel did pitch seven innings in each start, so stamina is not an issue here, but RHBs homered 15 times against him last season with just a 16.3 K%. Washington bats may be the way to go here. Even if players aren’t likely to roster Keuchel here, they are more likely to avoid him altogether than attack him. Not only are the Nationals hot (126 wRC+, 18.4 K%, 23.1 HR/FB last seven days), but they’ve also punished LHP all season long (118 wRC+, 16.5 HR/FB). Trea Turner (131 wRC+, .161 ISO), Anthony Rendon (168 wRC+, .359 ISO) and Howie Kendrick (183 wRC+, .276 ISO) have all done serious damage against southpaws over the last year, but also consider Victor Robles (129 wRC+, .222 ISO) if he somehow sneaks his way into the top half of this lineup.