Ian Kennedy Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Normally, a matchup with fly ball and HR prone Ian Kennedy (30 GB%, 19 HRs in 21 starts), even in a power suppressing park (though actually a positive run environment) like Kansas City. However, tonight the temperature is supposed to be in the 50s with 10-15 mph winds blowing in, which should make those fly balls less likely to convert into extra-base hits. The Indians are one of just nine teams above 4.5 implied runs (4.53), but conditions might be the reason they're a bit lower than expected with a game total that has dropped from 8.5 to 8 since opening. With their normal lineup intact, the top half still looks fairly strong against a pitcher allowing batters from either side of the plate an xwOBA above .335 and hard hit rate above 37%. While Francisco Lindor (119 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP), Michael Brantley (138 wRC+, .191 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (157 wRC+, .312 ISO) are the obvious bats, Kennedy has actually been worse against RHBs (.351 wOBA). Edwin Encarnacion (121 wRC+, .253 ISO) may have some value here, while Josh Donaldson (98 wRC+, .164 ISO) is rounding back into form. He has a lineup leading 182 wRC+ over the last week.

The Tigers are sitting at 4.58 implied runs, which a mark that reaches the top third of the ball tonight because batters from either side of the plate are above a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against Ian Kennedy, an extreme fly ball pitcher. The Tigers have just one legitimate bat in Nick Castellanos (116 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP this season), but Christin Stewart (145 wRC+, .212 ISO) has done some damage in a small sample and both he and leadoff man Jacoby Jones (76 wRC+, .172 ISO) are extremely cheap, perhaps affording the opportunity to pay up for pitching tonight.

The Twins aren't a top offense and the park in Minnesota may be deceptively run positive, which could run them under the radar tonight despite a 5.26 implied run line that's fifth on the board. Should they be able to able to handle Ian Kennedy, who has five games with multiple HRs allowed this season, they'll get into a bullpen with just a 0.3 K-BB% over the last month. Batters from either side of the plate have hit Kennedy well (above a .340 wOBA and .360 xwOBA since last year) with left-handed batters owning a 45 Hard% and 30.3 GB%. Eddie Rosario (153 wRC+, .298 ISO) is one of the top bats in the league against RHP over the last calendar year. Brian Dozier (115 wRC+, .216 ISO), Logan Morrison (98 wRC+, .216 ISO) and Eduardo Escobar (136 wRC+, .299 ISO) each have two career HRs against Kennedy. Joe Mauer (103 wRC+, .388 xwOBA, .096 ISO) is one of the cheapest bats in the lineup in the leadoff spot.

A 4.67 implied run line is fairly high for the Mariners at home. Ian Kennedy is capable of giving up home runs in power suppressing environments and though Safeco is a more negative run environment overall, it plays almost neutrally towards power. This is a spot where Nelson Cruz (150 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Mitch Haniger (130 wRC+, .228 ISO) should be emphasized over the speedsters, even as one offs, against a pitcher who doesn't have much of a platoon split and allows hard air contact to batters from either side of the plate (RHBs .338 wOBA, .359 xwOBA, 37.2 Hard%, 36.9 GB% vs Kennedy since last season).

Ian Kennedy is facing an offense with a 25.7 K% vs RHP, but has just an 18.3 K% (7.6 SwStr%) over the last month. This gives the Rangers a 4.87 implied run line that's third highest on the board tonight despite the park downgrade (though Kansas City is a positive run environment with favorable hitting conditions in tonight's forecast). Batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA against Ian Kennedy since last season and xwOBA pushes LHBs to a .378 xwOBA with their 44.9 Hard% and just a 29.9 GB%. Each of the first eight batters in the Texas lineup are above a .175 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Shin-Soo Choo (116 wRC+, .198 ISO) is an elite level bat in this spot. Adrian Beltre (125 wRC+, .195 ISO) and the returning Elvis Andrus (114 wRC+, .178 ISO) are high value bats, especially for less than $4K on DraftKings. Joey Gallo (126 wRC+, .327 ISO) has the most upside.

Ian Kennedy has a .394 xwOBA at home since last season that's a split high on this board. Much of the difference between that and his actual home xwOBA 27 points lower at home over that span has to do with Kansas City being a large park, though it's actually a positive run environment. Not so much this year, however. He’s allowed six HRs over his last six home starts, including three to the A’s in just 18 batters in his most recent home effort. It's a large park shift for the Reds, at least in terms of power suppression, but batters from either side have a wOBA within five points of .350 against Kennedy since last season and xwOBA pushes both sides up 17 to 29 points. Joey Votto (178 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a great first base candidate (218 wRC+ last seven days). He, Scott Schebler (102 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Scooter Gennett (144 wRC+, .239 ISO) can be balanced with lower costing bats like Tucker Barnhart (89 wRC+, .128 ISO) in the second spot or Jesse Winker (133 wRC+, .167 ISO) a bit lower in the order.

The Angels have yet to produce a lineup, but when they do, it's expected to be one of the higher scoring ones of the night (4.84 implied runs) against Ian Kennedy despite the negative run environment. Kennedy has allowed at least five ERs in four of his last five starts with eight HRs over that span. Among batters who have faced tonight's opposing pitcher at least 20 times in their career, Albert Pujols, Ian Kinser and Justin Upton have the three highest xwOBAs (.377 or better) with a combined six HRs against Kennedy. While some of these numbers go back further, xwOBA represents more recent matchups in the Statcast era (since 2015). Mike Trout (184 wRC+, .447 xwOBA, .328 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) doesn't have the same personal history against Kennedy, but is obviously a top rated bat tonight.

Oakland has a 5.01 implied run line that stands alone as the fourth highest mark on the board without a team within two-tenths of a run in either direction. On the plus side, batters from either side have a .344 wOBA (and higher xwOBA) against fly ball and home run prone Ian Kennedy since last season, while the lineup features five batters (Matt Joyce, Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Olson) with at least a 110 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. All except Lowrie (.181) are also above a .220 ISO. On the negative side, Matt Olson (150 wRC+, .324 ISO) is the only one of the five above a 40 wRC+ over the last week (138 wRC+, 57.9%). This is a spot players will want some exposure to none the less for sheer power potential. Matt Joyce (132 wRC+, .253 ISO) costs right around $3K on either site.

The St Louis Cardinals (5.03) are the lowest of three teams above five implied runs tonight. Ian Kennedy has increased his swinging strike rate close to his career rate over the last month (9.2%) and has a chance to be better than terrible in a power suppressing park, such as St Louis is. There's a non-zero chance he can exceed a $5.5K price tag on DraftKings against a lineup missing a few bats. On the other side, Matt Carpenter (122 wRC+, .214 ISO), Tommy Pham (148 wRC+, .191 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (124 wRC+, .214 ISO) all exceed a 120 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year, though the latter continues to struggle in his new uniform and has a -72 wRC+ over the last week. Reasonable arguments can be made for exposure to either side of this matchup as well as avoiding it.

Ian Kennedy has allowed more than two runs just twice and failed to go six innings in just three of his seven starts this year, but none the less, the Baltimore Orioles have a top five implied run line tonight (5.17) against a fly ball pitcher prone to long ball issues in a park that favors power. Kennedy's 7.9 SwStr%, 90 mph aEV, 12.2% Barrels/BBE, .364 xwOBA and 4.10 SIERA may paint a better picture than his 2.92 ERA. While no bat in the Baltimore lineup is above a 120 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year (Manny Machado 119 and Chance Sisco 118 come closest), only Jace Peterson is below a .165 ISO with Machado, Sisco, Adam Jones, Chris Davis and Pedro Alvarez all between a .198 and .214 ISO. Kennedy has allowed a .327 wOBA (.353 xwOBA), 37.7 Hard% and 40.4 GB% to RHBs since last season. Against lefties, it gets even worse: .340 wOBA, .379 xwOBA, 45.4 Hard%, 30.3 GB%. There's likely to be a home run or two. Peterson (77 wRC+, .095 ISO) and maybe Mark Trumbo (77 wRC+, .166 ISO) would seem the least likely candidates. All others would appear somewhere between a decent and significant threat.