| Date | Opp | DKSAL | FDSAL | DKFPTS | FDFPTS | k | ip | ab | sho | w | hra | l | er | cg | ha | 3ba | bba | sba | ibba | whip | hbp | qstart | 1ba | k/9 | 2ba |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-08-14 | vs. CLE | $6.3K | $5.9K | -10.7 | -11 | 1 | 3.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2.7 | 0 |
| 2020-08-08 | @ PIT | $8.5K | $6.8K | 5.85 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5.4 | 1 |
| 2020-07-30 | vs. KC | $5.4K | $6.3K | 9.95 | 20 | 3 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.41 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4.77 | 3 |
| 2020-07-25 | @ CIN | $5.5K | $6.6K | 5.05 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.6 | 0 |
| 2019-09-21 | @ DET | $5.4K | $6K | 12.45 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5.4 | 1 |
| 2019-09-18 | @ MIN | $5K | $6.5K | 3.05 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| 2019-09-15 | @ SEA | $5K | $6.8K | -3.1 | 4 | 3 | 3.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8.11 | 1 |
| 2019-09-10 | vs. KC | $4.8K | $7K | 17.15 | 29 | 5 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.06 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7.95 | 1 |
| 2019-09-04 | @ CLE | -- | -- | -8.05 | -2 | 1 | 4.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2.08 | 3 |
| 2019-08-30 | @ ATL | -- | -- | -5.6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| 2019-08-24 | vs. TEX | -- | -- | 19.15 | 32 | 6 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.06 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9.54 | 1 |
| 2019-08-19 | @ MIN | -- | -- | 9.4 | 22 | 2 | 5.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.06 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3.38 | 3 |
| 2019-08-13 | vs. HOU | -- | -- | 29.75 | 46 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| 2019-08-07 | @ DET | -- | -- | 19.2 | 37 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1.13 | 0 |
| 2019-08-02 | @ PHI | -- | -- | 13.05 | 24 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7.2 | 1 |
| 2019-07-27 | vs. MIN | -- | -- | 23.1 | 40 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| 2019-07-22 | vs. MIA | -- | -- | 31.75 | 49 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| 2019-07-17 | @ KC | -- | -- | -4.1 | 2 | 2 | 4.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2.36 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3.86 | 1 |
| 2019-07-12 | @ OAK | -- | -- | 7.5 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| 2019-07-07 | vs. CHC | -- | -- | 21.15 | 35 | 4 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.06 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6.36 | 3 |
| 2019-06-29 | vs. MIN | -- | -- | 8.7 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| 2019-06-23 | @ TEX | -- | -- | 14.1 | 31 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
| 2019-06-18 | @ CHC | -- | -- | 7.65 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.8 | 0 |
| 2019-06-13 | vs. NYY | -- | -- | 9.95 | 20 | 5 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.41 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7.95 | 1 |
| 2019-06-07 | @ KC | -- | -- | 11.8 | 22 | 6 | 5.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.31 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10.13 | 2 |
| 2019-06-01 | vs. CLE | -- | -- | 10.95 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3.86 | 1 |
| 2019-05-28 | vs. KC | -- | -- | 9.65 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3.6 | 1 |
| 2019-05-22 | @ HOU | -- | -- | 11.95 | 31 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.57 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3.86 | 2 |
| 2019-05-17 | vs. TOR | -- | -- | -14.45 | -12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 2019-05-11 | @ TOR | -- | -- | 16.7 | 34 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | 2 |
| 2019-05-06 | @ CLE | -- | -- | 22.35 | 43 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.29 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6.43 | 1 |
| 2019-05-01 | vs. BAL | -- | -- | 6.15 | 17 | 5 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.94 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7.95 | 1 |
| 2019-04-23 | @ BAL | -- | -- | -9.4 | -3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| 2019-04-18 | @ DET | -- | -- | 1.05 | 10 | 3 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.74 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4.27 | 4 |
| 2019-04-13 | @ NYY | -- | -- | 18.5 | 34 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7.5 | 0 |
| 2019-04-07 | vs. SEA | -- | -- | -9.55 | -8 | 2 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3.43 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7.73 | 1 |
| 2019-04-01 | @ CLE | -- | -- | 17.55 | 34 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5.14 | 2 |
Ivan Nova Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Affordable Phillies in favorable matchup against Ivan Nova (5.02 SIERA, 7.55 DRA, .352 xwOBA)
Ivan Nova has allowed a single ER over his last 15 innings, but the profile (15 K%, 18.5 HR/FB) creates a far below average pitcher (5.23 ERA, 5.02 SIERA, 7.55 DRA, .352 xwOBA). The Phillies haven’t been very good against RHP (92 wRC+), but currently own the sixth highest implied run line on the board (5.79) in a power friendly park, against a pitcher who has allowed a wOBA and xwOBA between .329 and .350 to batters from either side of the plate over the last calendar year. A $3.5K or less Cesar Hernandez (101 wRC+, .145 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has a 193 wRC+ over the last week and adds value from the leadoff spot. In fact, not a single bat in the Philadelphia projected lineup is above $4.4K on DraftKings, giving Rhys Hoskins (127 wRC+, .266 ISO), Bryce Harper (134 wRC+, .212 ISO) and others in the top half of the lineup value as well.
Middle of the order power for Oakland should do some damage against Ivan Nova (8.05 DRA)
With a negative run environment on the west coast hosting this ball game and six teams above Oakland’s 5.47 implied runs tonight, the A’s with just a league average offense vs RHP (99 wRC+, 14.8 HR/FB) could be forgotten on this slate, but Ivan Nova (15.1 K%, 92.1 Z-Contact%, 18.8 HR/FB, 40% 95+ mph EV, .353 xwOBA, 8.05 DRA) is certainly reason enough to make sure that does not happen. Nova’s a pitcher who, at times, displayed a significant platoon split, but over the last calendar year, RHBs actually own the higher xwOBA against him (.343 to .328). This bodes well for a predominantly right-handed A’s lineup. The first seven batters in the projected lineup for Oakland are all above a 105 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year with Matt Chapman (144 wRC+, .281 ISO), Matt Olson (126 wRC+, .263 ISO), Khris Davis (112 wRC+, .262 ISO) and Mark Canha (128 wRC+, .241 ISO) all above a .240 ISO over that span. This is a difficult lineup to navigate. Along with the middle of the order power, the A’s have just a 20.9 K% vs RHP this year and should be able to make life difficult for Nova in this outing.
Weather in Wrigley set to benefit pitchers on Tuesday night
If you are a premium user and you aren't taking advantage of the WeatherEdge tool, you are missing out. The forecast for Tuesday night in Chicago looks to be very conducive to pitching - in 145 games in similar conditions, Wrigley has seen a drop off of -29.6% in the home run department and a -13.3% dip in total runs scored. It makes sense then that pitchers are having more success from a run prevention standpoint, setting up Cole Hamels for what should be his fourth-straight plus outing. There are still enough strikeouts in this White Sox lineup to make Hamels a worthwhile target at his current price tags. Despite some plus pitching conditions, Ivan Nova still isn't on the radar against the Cubs offense.
Game in Kansas City features two pitchers above a .350 xwOBA
A game in Kansas City between the Royals and White Sox is generally not likely to garner much attention, except that both teams are among the top third by implied run lines tonight with two of the more punishable pitchers on the mound tonight. Ivan Nova has struck out a total of 12 batters over his last five starts with a 5.4 SwStr%. His 92.5 Z-Contact% is worst on the board and though his estimators are generally about a run below his 6.24 ERA, his 9.51 DRA suggest better than a run per inning. Between Nova and Homer Bailey, we are looking at two of the six xwOBA marks on the board above .350 this season (three start min.). While Nova does it by simply not missing any bats anymore, Bailey can still miss bats at a league average rate (21.4 K%), but is otherwise a human launching pad. Batters have a 35.8 Hard-Soft% and board high 91.2 mph aEV against him when making contact. He hasn’t lasted even 20 batters in any of his last three starts or more than five innings in over a month. While both pitchers are better against RHBs over the last calendar year, neither drops below a .329 wOBA or xwOBA against batters from either side of the plate over that span. While the park in Kansas City suppresses power, it is a positive run environment. Yoan Moncada (116 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has a 191 wRC+ over the last week. Adalberto Mondesi (107 wRC+, .212 ISO) is experiencing a similar breakout on the side of this one, while Alex Gordon (116 wRC+, .202 ISO) has rejuvenated his career.
Value to be Had in Toronto Lineup
If you’re spending up on pitching tonight, the Blue Jays lineup has some cheap value bats that could help form your lineup. The Blue Jays are in Chicago to face Ivan Nova, who has had a rough year with a 6.29 ERA / 4.64 xFIP / 4.79 SIERA and a 9.5 K-BB%. With a 42.8% GB rate, Nova does a solid job keeping the ball out of the air, but his .343 xwOBA allowed suggests he does give up some loud contact. Nova has been more vulnerable vs. LHB with a .359 xwOBA allowed vs. lefties since 2018 as opposed to a .315 xwOBA allowed vs. righties. Justin Smoak ($3.9k on DK, .381 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Rowdy Tellez ($3.7k, .354), Billy Mckinney ($3.4k, .325), Eric Sogard ($4.4k, .300) and Freddy Galvis ($4k, .279) are left-handed options in the Blue Jays lineup. Vlad Guerrero Jr. won’t have the platoon advantage vs. Nova but is just $4.1k and projects to bat 2nd; he has started to heat up with a .401 xwOBA over the past 10 days, Smoak has been the Jays’ hottest hitter with a .455 xwOBA over the past 10 days. The ‘Jays have a 4.4 implied total vs. Nova and the White Sox tonight.
Isolated top bat in this lineup
The Cardinals are a predominantly RH lineup, facing a pitcher who is much better against RHP in a negative run environment, but with conditions a bit more conducive to hitting than they usually are. This is a spot where Matt Carpenter (155 wRC+, .307 ISO vs RHP this season) alone is a top overall bat against Ivan Nova (LHBs .352 wOBA, .382 xwOBA this season). The Cardinals do have an implied run line of 4.51 and are fairly cheap with Tyler O'Neill (113 wRC+, .224 ISO) the only other batter above $4K on DraftKings. They're not terrible values against Nova under improved conditions, but RHBs have just a .308 wOBA against him this season.
Has Vegas underestimated this lineup?
The Braves have just a 3.84 implied run line in Pittsburgh. The two through six batters are all left-handed and above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. LHBs have a .365 wOBA against Ivan Nova this year with an xwOBA that's even 28 points higher. The lone RHB in the top half of the lineup is leadoff man Ronald Acuna (147 wRC+, .274 ISO), who leads the lineup with a 202 wRC+ and 61.9 Hard% over the last week. This Atlanta lineup doesn't have a lot of power, Freddie Freeman (137 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Ozzie Albies (103 wRC+, .192 ISO) are the top power bats from the left-side, but this is a spot where Vegas may be under-estimating the Braves.
Left-handed value against a pitcher with terrible platoon splits
Ivan Nova is not the worst pitcher on the board and has only allowed six of his 20 HRs this season at home. He does have just a 16.5 K% with a league average ground ball rate and 89.4 mph aEV this season. With an additional problem against LHBs, (.362 wOBA, .389 xwOBA), that portion of the Cubs' lineup does look attractive tonight in a park that suppresses RH power, but is more neutral towards LH, despite their 4.35 implied run line that sits in the middle of the board tonight. Anthony Rizzo (139 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jason Heyward (106 wRC+, .138 ISO) both hit in the top half of the lineup. Ian Happ (123 wRC+, .225 ISO) bats fifth. Additionally, only Rizzo is above $4K on DK or $3K on FD among those LH bats. Javier Baez (118 wRC+, .251 ISO) is even more expensive on DraftKings, but David Bote (156 wRC+, .200 ISO) could be a bargain from the three hole. He's one of just two batters in the lineup (Albert Almora is the other) above a 30 Hard% over the last week.
Not very good, but probably far too cheap in a great park
Nobody on the main slate can come close to matching the upside of either pitcher in Houston tonight, but the two pitchers in San Francisco both appear far to cheap on DraftKings. Both Ivan Nova and Andrew Suarez are within $100 of $5K on DK. Suarez has a 7.3 SwStr% that more befits his 15.3 K% over the last month than his 20.9% mark for the season and Nova is sitting at just 16.7% for the year. While Nova has a .361 xwOBA, due to an 89.5 mph aEV and 8.6% Barrels/BBE, he gains a park upgrade, which should help smother left-handed power that the Giants don't even really have anyway (16.1 K-BB% vs RHP, 10.5 HR/FB at home and vs RHP). His platoon splits shouldn't be an issue here, while Suarez doesn't really have to worry about much power from the Pirates either (12.5 HR/FB, 12.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP) in a great park. These are probably both below average pitchers, who become serviceable in this spot at an extremely low price. Neither is going to win anyone a GPP on their own, but they could allow players to roster someone who can.
Paying Down Tonight
Tonight's pitching options are not the best, and with the top bats on the slate, I'm just looking to pay down. I like both pitchers in San Francisco, but I actually think Nova has a little more upside. The projected lineup for the Giants has a 23.2% strikeout rate with a .123 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. With three of their best hitters being right-handed hitters, Nova should win those matchups. He has a .327 wOBA with a .196 ISO and a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. Nova has struggled a lot with lefties, but I'm hoping this ballpark will help him with that.