Jesse Chavez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Jesse Chavez owns just a 6.2 SwStr% (3.65 K/SwStr) with a 90.9 Z-Contact%. So, although his estimators are around four and more than half a run higher than his 3.30 ERA due to four of his 27 runs being unearned, an expectation of an even more pessimistic outlook may be warranted because we’d expect his strikeout rate to drop. Facing the Astros (114 wRC+, 18 K%) in Texas is not likely to help the situation and lines makers are not buying into the low ERA with Houston implied for six runs tonight, the third highest total on the board. The projected lineup for the Astros includes several batters who have punished RHP over the last calendar year: George Springer (147 wRC+, .242 ISO), Alex Bregman (159 wRC+, .263 ISO), Michael Brantley (142 wRC+, .190 ISO), and Yordan Alvarez (197 wRC+, .396 ISO). The latter obviously still has some sample size issues, but is off to an impressive start to his major league career. With Chavez not expected to miss many bats tonight, the Astros could put on a show in the Texas heat.

Mike Trout is projected to be owned at an astound clip above 40% on DraftKings (35% on FanDuel), which is understandable considering the lack of expensive pitching on the slate, his 289 wRC+ over the last week, and his team's slate high 4.91 run projection. However, considering potential ownership rates and opposing pitcher Mike Pelfrey's 56.3 GB% and 25.8 Hard%, perhaps not a total fade, but lowering exposure might not be crazy. Jake Lamb is also projected to be in around 30% of lineups on either site, justified by a weak overall 3B position tonight. With Freeman, Goldschmidt, and Thames projected to be the most popular First Base options, it's a great position to diversify as several viable options, including Myers, Bour, and Bellinger are expected to be in 5% or fewer of lineups on both sites. Pitching is fairly well spread out with Chavez expected to be most popular on DraftKings and Perdomo on FanDuel, but cost is not really an issue tonight and nine starters are projected for at least 10% ownership on DraftKings. Premium subscribers can see potential ownership rates for all players on the Projected Ownership page.

Luis Perdomo leads the main slate with a projected 6.01 strikeouts according to the RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor. It's a horrible slate for pitching, but Perdomo might stand out against a powerful Milwaukee lineup (20.6 HR/FB on the road, 20.1 HR/FB vs RHP) due to the negative run environment in San Diego and his 69.5 GB%, which would lead the majors by over four points if he had enough innings to qualify. The Brewers also matchup well from a strikeout standpoint, considering their 24.4 K% vs RHP and his 21 K% (10.2 SwStr%). In fact, since moving into the San Diego rotation last June, Perdomo has a 62.9 GB% in 139 IP. From a pure matchup standpoint, players should also be looking at Jesse Chavez (20.1 K%, 8.9 SwStr%), who faces the White Sox (74 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs RHP) in a great home park in LA. Zack Godley does not have a favorable matchup in Arizona against the Mets (18.5 K% vs RHP), but is a low cost arm who has struck out 12 of 45 major league batters this year and does have a career 11.7 SwStr% (123.1 IP).

Coors hitters combine for the six most highly projected ownership rates on FanDuel tonight, along with the top four on DraftKings. Luckily, there appear to be many third base pivots on either site with Joey Gallo, Mike Moustakas, Justin Turner and Miguel Sano all being projected at 10% or less on either site, while Mike Napoli and Anthony Rizzo may get the same treatment at first base. With several bats worth paying up for tonight and not a clear cut elite mound option tonight, players are expected to pay down for pitching tonight. There are some lower-priced arms that have shown some strikeout potential this month (Vargas, Garrett, Chavez). Premium subscribers can check out ownership projections for all players on our Projected Ownership page.

While three Coors bats (Arenado, T.Turner, Blackmon) lead overall projections among hitters, there are plenty of 3B pivots for those who don't want to pay an enormous price for Arenado. Jake Lamb (134 wRC+, 285 ISO vs RHP) projects within a point on either site, while also being one of the top projected values on DraftKings (2.36 Pt/$/K) alongside teammate David Peralta (132 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who is also the only bat on FanDuel projected for more than 4.0 Pt/$/K. Tonight may also be a night to pay down for pitching (Jesse Chavez 5.01 Pt/$/K on FanDuel, Amir Garrett 3.24 Pt/$/K) with the top priced pitchers having either weather (Archer) or velocity (Greinke) issues tonight.

There are four pitchers on today's board with a swinging strike rate above 12% and a strikeout rate of at least 25%. Chris Archer (25.5 K%, 12.6 SwStr%) is the name everyone expects to see and he might be the top pitcher on the slate if weather cooperates tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu (25 K%, 12.4 SwStr%) is a bit of a surprise because he's missed the last two seasons due to injury and he's being pummeled on contact (14.3 Barrels/BBE, six HRs already). The other two are two of 2017's early breakout stars. Amir Garrett (28.4 K%, 12.9 SwStr%) was a middling prospect coming into the season, but the secondary pitches have played up more than expected. As an added bonus, he faces an offense that has struck out in 30.2% of PAs vs LHP so far and sits atop the RotoGrinder's K Predictor tonight (7.8). The Brewers also have tremendous power from the right-side (39.1 Hard%, 26.7 HR/FB vs LHP), adding some risk. The real shock here is the transformation of Jason Vargas into Rich Hill. He leads the slate with a 31.1 K% and 13.4 SwStr% after missing most of the last two seasons. Vargas faces a White Sox lineup that has been competent against LHP (114 wRC+), but have a team-wide 28.2 K% and 49 wRC+ over the last week. One more affordable arm for Coors stackers to look at tonight is Jesse Chavez, who has returned to starting with 21.1 K% and 11.3 SwStr%. He faces a Toronto offense down a couple of bats with just a 74 wRC+ and 24.1 K% vs RHP in a big park, while sitting fifth in projected strikeouts tonight (5.18).

With Carlos Correa OUT of the lineup against Jesse Chavez tonight, Josh Reddick (132 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP since 2015) moves up to the 2nd spot and Carlos Beltran (117 wRC+, .196 ISO) hits cleanup. LHBs have a .351 wOBA against Chavez since 2015 as well. Reddick hasn't really gotten on track yet this season, but costs just $2.6K on FanDuel and has hit the ball hard in 42.9% of his BBE (Batted Ball Events) over the last week. Chavez has been better against RHBs (.291 wOBA), but Jose Altuve (132 wRC+, .165 ISO vs RHP since 2015) hits same handed pitching well and has begun heating up (289 wRC+ over the last week.

George Springer, Jose Altuve and Anthony Rizzo are the clear favorites of the Rotogrinders projections tonight. The Astros are facing soft tossing lefty Jason Vargas at home, while Rizzo has an appointment with Jimmy Nelson, who has allowed a .357 wOBA and 35.5 Hard% to LHBs over the last two seasons. Rizzo (149 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 92 mph aEV on 18 BBEs against Nelson. Francisco Liriano is the clear top choice on the mound, projecting for 34 points on FanDuel and 17 on DraftKings, but it's then kind of interesting that Rickie Weeks is projected as the top point per dollar play tonight. Liriano has upside, but is a flawed pitcher, prone to control and HR issues and Weeks (133 wRC+, .272 ISO vs LHP since 2015), who costs the minimum or barely more, has been batting cleanup against LHP so far. Jesse Chavez is the top projected value at Pitcher on FanDuel, costing the minimum after having pitched out of the bullpen last year, but he's still on the bottom half of overall Pitcher projections.