Joe Ryan Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Tuesday night’s 12 game slate includes two pitchers reaching the $10K price point on both sites, while three more do so on FanDuel and are also above $9K on DraftKings. There are no other pitchers exceeding $9K on DK. The two most expensive pitchers on the board are Justin Verlander and Kyle Wright. On the surface, it doesn’t look like Verlander (22.9 K-BB%) hasn’t lost much after missing two seasons with Tommy John surgery, but he’s sporting just a 9.7 SwStr%. Perhaps that improves, but he hasn’t been in single digits since 2014. He can become a bit home run prone at times (four on seven barrels so far), which could be trouble with any substantial drop in his strikeout rate. He’s also been a bit of a FIP breaker in the past, but a .192 BABIP and 92.4 LOB% are unsustainable even for him. Estimators are all between 2.59 DRA and 3.23 FIP. The Twins have a 108 wRC+, but fairly high 23.6 K% vs RHP. Verlander is currently PlateIQ’s top projected pitcher and is also currently expected to be the most popular pitcher on the board, though not to an overwhelming point on a large slate.

Even with a season low three strikeouts against the Mets last time out, Wright still registers a 30.6 K% (5.8 BB%) with more than half his contact on the ground (53.4%) and just four barrels (5.4%). He’s been above 90 pitches in four straight starts, completing seven innings in each of his last two. Estimators are tightly packed between a 2.07 FIP and 2.67 DRA. He’ll face the Red Sox (79 wRC+, 21.6 K% vs RHP) in a hitter friendly park. He projects barely inside the top 10 tonight, which could be a mistake, especially if his ownership runs as low as currently projected. These numbers are fluid and may change throughout the day though.

Within $300 of $10K on either site, Lucas Giolito tops the board with a 40.5 K% (16.9 SwStr%). That certainly makes up for the six barrels (15.4%), 22.2 HR/FB and 10.1 BB%. Even his FIP (3.68) and xERA (3.31) are well below four, while contact neutral estimators are about a run below his 3.20 ERA. He’s the fifth best projected pitcher on DraftKings, but barely ahead of Wright on FanDuel currently. The Guardians have surprised the baseball world with a 130 wRC+ and 18.9 K% vs RHP. We may have to begin respecting the matchup more than we thought we’d have to at this point, but Giolito may still be a bit under-valued here.

Joe Ryan hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his five starts. However, in the two starts he allowed two runs, he failed to complete five innings. Aside from that oddity, he’s been rolling through the American League over five starts with a 19.8 K-BB% and solid contact management (18.2 IFFB%, 86.2 mph EV, 5.9% Barrels/BBE). He’s induced more popups (six) than barrels (four). Estimators are tightly packed between a 2.96 xERA and 3.70 xFIP. This is a tough spot against the Astros, though they’ve been striking out a bit more than in the past (109 wRC+, 22.8 K% vs RHP). Ryan costs $9.4K on DK, but merely projects as a middle of the board pitcher tonight. This is a deep pitching board, but Ryan at less than 5% ownership in this spot may be the lowest we see him all year should he keep at his current pace.

The last of the $10K FD/$9K DK pitchers is Jesus Luzardo. Having allowed more than two runs in just one of his five starts, Luzardo has struck out exactly one-third of the batters he’s faced, which gives him a 21.9 K-BB%, though control problems still persist (11.4 BB%). The strikeout spike is really what’s driving his bounce back so far because the exit velocity (89.5 mph) is exactly the same as last year too. All the other stuff is easier to survive when the strikeout rate is so high, which is not to say that the Marlins wouldn’t love for him to be more efficient, but with estimators ranging from a 2.77 xERA to a 3.26 FIP, who’s gonna argue? He too, is projected outside the top five tonight, despite Arizona’s 66 wRC+ and 22.1 K% vs LHP this year.