Joey Votto Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

On a five game slate where the Cubs are the only team above five implied runs, separating themselves by nearly half a run from the rest of the board, it’s a bit of a surprise that they’re currently projected for less than 20% stack ownership on either site. In fact, half of the team teams on FanDuel are projected between 11.0% and 16.0% ownership. On a seven game DraftKings slate, the Cubs and Brewers (4.7 team run total) are a bit above the rest of the pack. Simulations believe that it’s actually the Cincinnati Reds are smashing the slate most often tonight with the wind blowing out against Kyle Hendricks, who has struck out exactly six in three straight, but has still allowed 10% Barrels/BBE this year with much more elevated contact than usual. Still, the Reds merely separate themselves from the rest of the pack by just a few points. There are also several cheap bats in that Cincy projected lineup, making them the top projected value stack as well on either site, though closely followed by the A’s on FanDuel and the Brewers and Cubs on DraftKings. Despite all the smashing and value, Cincinnati stacks are not the top rated stacks tonight. To find out who currently is, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Your need for value bats tonight will basically depend on whether you’re paying all the way up for one of the top arms on the board and/or planning on stacking Coors or Dodger bats. If so, the great news is that the team with the second highest implied run line on the board (5.28) may also be the lineup with the most value on FanDuel. PlateIQ projections have four Cincinnati Reds among the top 10 point per dollar projected values for $3K or less on FD tonight. Joey Votto (151 wRC+, .324 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is the top projected value on the board. Nick Senzel (76 wRC+), Aramis Garcia (39 wRC+) and Tommy Pham (102 wRC+, .150 ISO) are not far behind. As you can see, this is mostly due to park (Cincinnati is the top offensive environment in the league according to Statcast) and matchup. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Joan Adon, who simply can’t find the plate often enough (12.9 BB%, 6.1 SwStr%).

The Reds are only available on FanDuel, but that’s okay because the same projections also suggest Seattle bats may be top values on either site against Jordan Lyles, who is actually having a decent season in the new confines in Baltimore, but if we’re regressing, batters from either side of the plate still own a wOBA and xwOBA between .339 and .369 against him since last season. Taylor Trammell (117 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is actually the top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings, while Mike Ford (108 wRC+ since being called up) joins him as a top projected value on both boards for $2.1K or less. Jesse Winker (142 wRC+, .217 ISO) is currently the second best projected value on FanDuel ($2.6K), though projections are fluid and subject to change.

Despite the pitcher friendly weather at Wrigley tonight, DraftKings projections also see Nolan Gorman (231 wRC+, .321 ISO vs RHP) and Corey Dickerson (88 wRC+ vs RHP since LY) as top values for $2.6K or less against Keegan Thompson (LHBs .330 wOBA, .324 xwOBA since 2021). Also, only available on DraftKings, Miguel Andujar and Aaron Hicks project as top values against Reid Detmers, who’s BABIP wizardry (.171) is responsible for most of his accomplishments with just a 10.1 K-BB% and 9.3% Barrels/BBE.

Maybe that’s because the Reds own a 50 wRC+ on the road and 69 wRC+ vs RHP, but again, this is Coors and Antonio Senzatela has been awful. He was signed to a not insignificant contract extension because he supposed to generate tons of ground balls in a park where fly balls are a big problem. To this point, he has struck out just five of 61 batters with a 37.7 GB% and 91 mph EV. This is probably not what the Rockies had in mind. He’s very lucky to have allowed just four barrels (7.3%) and even luckier that only one has left the yard. On a positive note, he’s only walked one and had a FIP and xFIP below four, but an xERA above seven. Batters from either side of the plate range between a .320 to .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season. It’s no surprise then, that the top three projected point per dollar values (PlateIQ) on DraftKings are all Reds tonight in Mike Moustakas (76 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Tommy Pham (101 wRC+, .162 ISO) and Joey Votto (150 wRC+, .320 ISO). Tyler Naquin (118 wRC+, .222 ISO) and Nick Senzel (78 wRC+, .095 ISO) also find themselves projected as top 10 values tonight. Atlanta (at Texas – Spencer Howard) is the only other offense with multiple top 10 projected values on DraftKings (Travis Demeritte, Adam Duvall). Check the roof status in Texas as run scoring increases by an average of eight percent with the roof open.

On FanDuel though, Votto is the only Cincinnati top 10 projected value and just barely. It’s Milwaukee bats that project for the most value however, with three bats among the top five against Kyle Hendricks, who hasn’t been bad this season (21.6 K% with estimators around four). Yet, Rowdy Tellez (88 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Kolten Wong (105 wRC+, .174 ISO) cost just $2.3K and LHBs have a .367 wOBA (.368 xwOBA) against Hendricks since last year. Christian Yelich (109 wRC+, .125 ISO) costs $2.7K. None are above a 98 wRC+ overall this year though.

The Cubs have been riding Alec Mills (at least 24 batters faced in six of his last seven starts) and it’s worked out fairly well with a 3.79 ERA, 4.12 FIP and 4.42 xFIP over this span, despite just a 14.6 K%. He’s walked just five with a 48.9 GB%. He’s allowed just 4.5% Barrels/BBE on the year, yet his 4.55 xERA is higher than his 4.25 ERA or any of his other estimators. The success he’s had has come against RHBs, as LHBs own a .375 wOBA, .363 xwOBA against him this year. While the weather isn’t expected to be as cooperative as yesterday’s forecast, it’s not necessarily a bad spot for LHBs here. Joey Votto (165 wRC+, .338 ISO vs RHP) is the main cog here and isn’t even all that expensive, but the addition of Tyler Naquin (125 wRC+, .235 ISO), projected to bat second, to daily fantasy lineups will really provide some salary relief, as the latter only costs $2.9K. These two make for a nice little mini-stack, but if you’re considering punting a position, Max Schrock (151 wRC+, .214 ISO) has impressed in a small sample and costs no more than $2.1K on either site at second base.

Zach Davies struck out a season high eight Diamondbacks last time out, though with just a 7.5 SwStr%, to bring his season strikeout rate up to 15.5%. An 8.8 HR/FB has allowed his ERA (4.30) and FIP (4.65) to beat additional estimators, though even with just 6.8% Barrels/BBE, his xERA (5.68) is highest among them. It’s fairly amazing what Davies has been able to accomplish, but considering that LHBs have batters from either side of the plate have at least a .325 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against him, it can’t be expected to continue. There’s also the Chicago bullpen. A strength of the team early in the year, this unit has a 6.28 ERA and 6.21 FIP over the last 30 days, both worst in the majors, as it continues to be dismantled at the trade deadline. While weather isn’t expected to play a large part in the proceedings tonight, it won’t hurt either and all of these are reasons why the Cubs are one of five teams to reach five implied runs tonight. Aristides Aquino (146 wRC+, .361 ISO vs RHP this season) could be the value play in this lineup at less than $3K on either site. The red hot Joey Votto (163 wRC+, .305 ISO) and Jesse Winker (174 wRC+, .288 ISO) are top bats here.

Don’t sleep on the other side of this matchup either. The Cubs are also one of those five teams to reach five implied runs tonight. Tyler Mahle has allowed seven home runs over his last five starts and walked 15 of his last 98 batters faced. It’s been RHBs with a .367 wOBA (.339 xwOBA) against Mahle this season, while he’s shut down LHBs (.253 wOBA, .255 xwOBA), but Anthony Rizzo (98 wRC+, .193 ISO vs RHP this season) has had some success against him in the past (two home runs with a .411 xwOBA in 26 PAs). Kris Bryant (111 wRC+, .196 ISO) has caused Mahle even more pain (19 PAs, three home runs, two doubles, .422 xwOBA). Projected leadoff man Rafael Ortega (134 wRC+, .165 ISO) is still available for $2.5K or less on either site.

Despite just a 13.2 K% (6.6 SwStr%) over his last five starts, Kyle Hendricks has allowed just 10 runs over 30.2 innings with just six walks and an 83.3 mph EV. He now has quality starts in 12 of his last 13 starts, but is really doing some things that should be unsustainable, which includes an 84.4 LOB% over that span (81.6% on the year). Most estimators are about a run above his 3.61 ERA with just a 17.5 K%. While he does have an 86.7 mph EV, he has still allowed 9.2% Barrels/BBE. Thus, Statcast does not absolve him (4.76 xERA). Hendricks also has a pretty massive platoon split this year with LHBs owning a .368 wOBA (.355 xwOBA) against him. The Reds are actually third from the bottom of the board with 4.04 implied runs tonight with Wrigley expecting to play fairly neutrally tonight, but left-handed Reds should be in ranked fairly highly in your player pool tonight. Jesse Winker (169 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP this season) struggled early in July, but has picked it up again since the break. Tyler Naquin (104 wRC+, .199 ISO) costs less than $3K on either site. Joey Votto (151 wRC+, .260 ISO) has a projected lineup leading 171 wRC+ over the last 30 days, but he also has quite the history with Hendricks. The two have faced off in 45 PAs in their careers, resulting in three doubles and three home runs, but also a 92.4 mph EV and .519 xwOBA. If Hendricks were ever asked who his daddy was, he might have to answer: Joey Votto.

Mike Leake has elite control. His 3.2 BB% is lowest on the board, but he throws a bunch of pitches over the plate that get hammered. He has just a 7.8 K% over the last month, while his xwOBA is above .350 for the month and season. His 90.7 mph aEV and 43.3% 95+ mph EV are both second worst on the board, behind only Tyler Beede, who gets to face the Marlins tonight. Not that the Cincinnati lineup boasts a lot of quality bats, but batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA vs RHP this year. The projected lineup for the Reds features Joey Votto (111 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP) and then three batters above a .300 ISO vs RHP this year: Eugenio Suarez (124 wRC+, .302 ISO), Aristides Aquino (128 wRC+, .349 ISO) and Derek Dietrich (117 wRC+, .311 ISO). There’s a good chance one or two of them punish a Leake offering or two tonight.

Mike Leake has looked off to say the least, posting a 6.98 ERA, 5.78 SIERA and 5.96 xFIP with a miniscule 6.9% K rate and 2.43 HR/9. Leake has just 4 strikeouts over his past 18 and 2/3 innings and has posted a hard contact rate above 50% 3 of his last 6 starts (above 40% in 5 of his last 6 starts). Leake has been more vulnerable when pitching away from home, posting a .354 xwOBA on the road compared to a .329 xwOBA at home since 2017. The Reds are msising some firepower in their lineup but still have some good options for today: Derek Dietrich (.366 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Joey Votto (.356), Josh VanMeter (.338), Eugenio Suarez (.328), Tucker Barnhart (.298), Jose Iglesias (.281) and Freddy Galvis (.275) are all options in this matchup. With the exception of Votto ($4.1k) and Suarez ($5.3k), all Reds’ batters are available for under $4k on Draftkings despite a solid 5.00 implied total. VanMeter (leading off at $3.8k), Barnhart (batting 4th at $3.2k) both look like some of the better values on the slate.