Jon Jay Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Arizona has very graciously given us early access to the most potently projected offense on the slate. No other offense is within a half run of their board topping 5.74 implied run line in Texas against Yovani Gallardo (13.7 K%, 5.52 SIERA, .362 xwOBA). Gallardo is not an exceptionally hard contact prone pitcher (LHBs 30.7 Hard% since last season), but has terrible peripherals (K-BB has surpassed 6% since 2015). This is a pitcher type against whom stacks would seem most beneficial if we expect the bases to be crowded. The major difference in tonight's lineup for the D'Backs vs Monday is the absence of A.J. Pollock with David Peralta (137 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) dropping to third and Jon Jay (96 wRC+, .102 ISO) leading off. Jay has some value out of the leadoff spot here and costs just $2.5K on FanDuel. Paul Goldschmidt (122 wRC+, .216 ISO) and Eduardo Escobar (141 wRC+, .315 ISO) are other obvious bats here. Daniel Descalso (117 wRC+, .197 ISO) is the only other bat in the lineup above an 85 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and within three points of a .360 xwOBA against Gallardo since last season.

The Diamondbacks are the high run line out west (5.07) and third on the board overall against Bartolo Colon (13.7 K%, 4.67 SIERA, .366 xwOBA). Since last season, batters from either side of the plate are between a .350 and .370 wOBA and xwOBA. He's allowed 23 HRs this season, 18 to RHBs. The only bat among the first six that players might have some reservation about is Steven Souza (58 wRC+, ,134 ISO, .259 xwOBA vs RHP last calendar year). Eduardo Escobar (137 wRC+, .307 ISO) has been the top bat against RHP by far over the last 365 days. Paul Goldschmidt (112 wRC+, .210 ISO), A.J. Pollock (105 wRC+, .213 ISO), and Daniel Descalso (110 wRC+, .181 ISO) all have significant upside in this spot and Jon Jay (96 wRC+, .104 ISO) is a cheaper bat ($2.6K on FD), who could score some runs.

The Diamondbacks have a lineup with five batters above a 110 wRC+ vs LHP over the last calendar year and six above a .185 ISO. So, of course, Jon Jay (77 wRC+, ZERO ISO) and Eduardo Escobar (72 wRC+, .097 ISO) bat in the first two spots against a pitcher with a with a .379 wOBA (37.1 Hard%, 45.4 GB%) against RHBs since last year and a .304 wOBA (28.7 Hard%, 57.4 GB%) vs LHBs. Getting the bad stuff out of the way first is not an optimal baseball strategy, but it's hard to find a poor play in the lineup, including Escobar simply because he will bat right-handed with Paul Goldschmidt (193 wRC+, .280 ISO) and A.J. Pollock (142 wRC+, .314 ISO) leading the way. Goldy costs below $5K on both sites tonight. With a 4.96 run total, the Diamondbacks are within one-tenth of a run of the top spot tonight.

German Marquez has some pretty massive home/road splits. In a career that started last year, he has an ERA 1.53 runs higher at home, a wOBA 35 points higher, and a FIP 0.61 points higher. Both LHBs (.369) and RHBs (.354) have exceeded a .350 wOBA against him at home. He's allowed at least four runs in seven of nine home starts this year. Appropriately, the Diamondbacks have a 5.52 implied run line that's third best on the board despite their struggles against RHP (83 wRC+, 24.3 K%). They've also recently returned A.J. Pollock (109 wRC+, .234 ISO) to the lineup. He has the top ISO in the lineup against RHP over the last calendar year. Jon Jay (101 wRC+, .094 ISO) is the value play here as one of the cheapest bats in the lineup in the leadoff spot. David Peralta (133 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Paul Goldschmidt (117 wRC+, .210 ISO) are the only other two bats above a 110 wRC+ against RHP over the last 365 days. Paying up for a marginal lineup in a great spot will likely cost players the opportunity to roster high priced pitching.

Chad Kuhl has significant issues with LHBs (.365 wOBA/xwOBA) with a 40.4 Hard% and 34.6 GB% since last season. The Diamondbacks have just a 4.06 implied run line against him in Pittsburgh tonight, as they generally struggle against RHP (80 wRC+, 25.3 K%), but have been improving recently and have three LHBs in the top half of the order who are all above average hitters against RHP. All three exceed a 160 wRC+ over the last week. Jon Jay (107 wRC+, .106 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has little power in the leadoff spot. David Peralta (121 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Daniel Descalso (120 wRC+, .201 ISO) have significantly more. Paul Goldschmidt (111 wRC+, .207 ISO) may still be the top overall bat in the lineup (244 wRC+, 57.1 Hard% last seven days).

Bettis comes into Saturday's matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks following three consecutive blowup home outings at Coors Field, as he has allowed at least five earned runs on each occasion and failed to strike out more than three hitters in all but one of those starts. Bettis had been a candidate for regression all year long prior to this most recent stretch, so it appears that some that regression has finally come to fruition, though it may be far from over with his 4.66 SIERA still more than a half run higher than his 4.06 ERA through 12 appearances this season. The low 16.0% strikeout rate is nothing new for Bettis, as his career mark is just 16.6%, but the elevated 7.5% walk rate certainly is uncharacteristic, especially over last season's pristine 5.5% walk rate, which has greatly contributed to his rising ERA and SIERA over the last month. Bettis has exhibited some slight reverse splits this season, so a right-handed hitter like Paul Goldschmidt (40.7% HH%, 0.217 ISO, 0.461 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) remains firmly in play for all formats and his projected value shouldn't be dinged just because he sacrifices the platoon advantage in this matchup. That said, Bettis is still more than attackable from the left-side of the plate as well, which makes Jake Lamb (0.250 ISO, 0.447 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017), Daniel Descalso (39.7% HH%, 0.205 ISO, 0.383 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017), and David Peralta (40.8% HH%, 0.374 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) the top Dodgers lefties to target. Meanwhile, Jon Jay and Alex Avila (53.3% HH%, 0.580 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) are certainly worthy options to round out a Diamondbacks stack in tournaments, especially Jay with his high 84.9% contact rate and above-average 40.1% hard-hit percentage at the top off the order, despite his other subpar advanced statistics this season, which keep him from being a viable one-off target given his inability to produce substantial upside without the assistance of his teammates more often than not.

The Diamondbacks (72 wRC+) and Rockies (74 wRC+) have been the two worst offenses in baseball against RHP, yet both are above five implied runs on Colorado. Though the top four Arizona bats (Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, David Peralta, Daniel Descalso) all fall between a 100 and 120 wRC+ and a .190 and .215 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year, none of the other four bats are even above a .130 ISO. German Marquez does not have much of a platoon split, but RHBs are actually slightly better against him (.326 xwOBA, 36.9 Hard%). The Diamondbacks only have the one real RHB in the lineup. Jon Jay (101 wRC+) does have some value at a reasonable cost atop the lineup though, as does Ketel Marte (76 wRC+), who has a 298 wRC+ and 58.8 Hard% over the last week, for less than $3K on DraftKings only.

Frankie Montas threw six strong innings at the Diamondbacks in his first career start, allowing just one run with seven strikeouts. He's been a well regarded prospect in the past, but it's been suggested that he could wind up with platoon problems which could ultimately push him to the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combo can play up. In fact, he threw those pitches 96.3% of the time in his first start with the 16 LHBs he faced generating a .435 wOBA (.440 xwOBA) and 35.2 Hard% against him. Jon Jay (100 wRC+, .089 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) in a low priced leadoff spot and Mike Moustakas (128 wRC+, .276 ISO) are certainly worth a shot.