Jonathan Villar Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

23 year old Jonathan Hernandez will be making the first start of his career for the Rangers tonight vs. Baltimore. Hernandez recently made his debut on August 21st, but has been pitching out of the bullpen and has totaled just 5 and 2/3 innings pitched, so there isn’t much to draw from his MLB stats thus far. Over 96 innings in AA this year, Hernandez posted an unimpressive 5.16 ERA / 4.30 FIP / 4.00 xFIP with a 13.6% K-BB. Projection systems vary a bit on him, as they have his ERA projected anywhere from 4.75 to 5.75 going forward. Trey Mancini (.340 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Chance Sisco (.329), Anthony Santander (.325), Jonathan Villar (.323), Renato Nunez (.320), Dwight Smith Jr. (.309), Rio Ruiz (.300) and Hanser Alberto (.291) are all in play tonight. Orioles bats are especially cheap on Fanduel, where Mancini is the most expensive bat at $3.6k and all but 3 hitters are under $3k. On Draftkings they are a bit pricier, as the top 3 batters in the projected order (Villar, Mancini, Santander) are all over $4.5k and only 4 hitters are below $4k. Santander has been the Orioles hottest bat over the past 2 weeks with a .406 xwOBA, followed by Mancini with a .378 mark.

Jorge Lopez’s return to the rotation lasted 11 batters as the Tigers blasted him for rive runs on three walks with a home run last time out. Lopez was removed from a below average rotation for a reason in May. Some of those reasons include a 6.51 ERA, 7.49 DRA, 5.43 FIP and .366 xwOBA with a 90.5 mph aEV and 10.9% Barrels/BBE. Lopez has allowed 18 HRs in just 85.2 innings. He faces a below average Baltimore offense (89 wRC+, 16.2 K-BB%, 13.4 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), who may still be better than the last offense he faced in a more dangerous environment. The Orioles actually own the sixth highest implied run line on the board currently (5.32) and Lopez has a fairly large platoon gap despite RHBs owing a .345 xwOBA against him over the last calendar year. LHBs are sitting on a .391 wOBA and .371 xwOBA over that span. Jonathan Villar (114 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP this year) and Anthony Santander (118 wRC+, .215 ISO) should be solid values near the top of this lineup.

If you’re playing the late afternoon slate, it might be wise to look at stacking against Yusei Kikuchi, who has really struggled. Over the past 30 days, Kikuchi has posted a 6.11 SIERA, 6.49 xFIP, 10.35 ERA, 0.9% K-BB and 42.7% hard contact rate. He’s allowed a .456 xwOBA (!!) and 89.2 MPH aEV over that time frame. The Orioles don’t have a good offense, but they are in a great spot here and will have plenty of affordable bats in their lineup for this matchup. Pedro Severino (.428 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Trey Mancini (.402) and Renato Nunez (.346) have all mashed LHP this year; Mancini is $4.7k on Draftkings but Severino and Nunez can be had under $4k. Hanser Alberto (.287) will leadoff, and Jonathan Villar (.249) is also a nice play given the stolen base potential. Keon Broxton is also in play with a career 103 wRC+ vs. LHP and a price of just $2.9k on Draftkings. The Mariners bullpen as a whole has also struggled with a 7th worst 4.53 SIERA over the past 30 days. The Orioles have a 4.03 implied total vs. Kikuchi and the Mariners Sunday afternoon.

Baltimore has a decent matchup with Mike Leake in Seattle tonight and their lineup has some bats with deflated pricing on Draftkings. Leake hasn’t been anything special this year with a 4.14 ERA , 4.68 xFIP and 4.58 SIERA with a 13.3% K-BB, 40.7% hard contact rate, 37.3% FB rate and just an 8% SwStr. His Statcast numbers show more vulnerability as he has allowed a .349 xwOBA, 10.3% barrel rate and an ugly 91.4 MPH aEV so far on the year. Baltimore is one of the league’s worst offenses, but given their pricing and the matchup, they can certainly have some use in lineups tonight. Chance Sisco (.339 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Dwight Smith Jr. (.326), Renato Nunez (.311), Jonathan Villar (.309), Rio Ruiz (.301), Chris Davis (.298) and Anthony Santander (.296) are all potential options. With the exception of Dwight Smith Jr., all these guys are available for $3.8k or less on Draftkings. Villar projects to leadoff at just $3.8k and is always a threat for a steal or two. Rio Ruiz stands out as the best value at a price of just $2.5k. Sisco ($3.3k) and Santander ($3.3k) project to hit in the top half of the lineup and are intriguing plays as well.

The Orioles face Kyle Freeland today in Coors field in what looks to be a great spot. Freeland has not been nearly as effective as he was in his breakout 2018; he currently has a 6.02 ERA / 5.23 xFIP / 5.00 SIERA, all three numbers are much higher than they were in 2018. His hard contact is up 12 percentage points to 43.6% and his FB rate has risen 5 points to 40.2%. He also has an ugly .364 xwOBA allowed with a 89.2 aEV and 10.3% barrel rate. Hanser Alberto (161wRC+, .172 ISO vs. LHP since 2018), Jonathan Villar (68 wRC+, .131 ISO), Trey Mancini (100 wRC+, .177 ISO), Renato Nunez (102 wRC+, .185 ISO) and Keon Broxton (55 wRC+, .077 ISO) project as the top 5 hitters in the O’s order. Villar and Broxton have ugly numbers at the plate but are always a threat for a steal or two. Nunez has been the hottest Oriole hitter with a .460 xwOBA over the past 10 days. With the exception of Trey Mancini ($5.5k), all Orioles projected hitters are under $5k on Draftkings. The O’s aren’t a great offense, but their implied total of 4.79 feels low given that they’re playing in Coors and have a matchup versus a struggling starter.

Once a promising prospect, Jeff Hoffman hasn’t really put together a good season at any level since 2016. In 35.2 innings in AAA this year Hoffman had a 7.20 ERA / 5.36 xFIP with a 2.02 HR/9 and a 10.2% walk rate. Most projection systems have Hoffman at a 5+ ERA at the MLB level for 2019. The Orioles have a healthy 5.27 implied total currently vs. Hoffman, but maybe that’s too low given the matchup and environment. Dwight Smith Jr. (.343 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Trey Mancini (.337), Pedro Severino (.331), Chris Davis (.322), Rio Ruiz (.317), Jonathan Villar (.310) and Stevie Wilkerson (.309) are all in the O’s projected lineup and have been decent bats vs. RHP this year. Rio Ruiz (.364 xwOBA over the past 10 days) and Trey Mancini (.360) have been the Orioles’ hottest hitters of late, while Chris Davis (.144) has seemingly fallen into another cold streak. Rio Ruiz is just $3.8k and is easily the best value in the lineup. Villar and Wilkerson project to bat 1-2 in the order and are both under $4.8k. Davis and Severino are all available under $4k tonight.