Jordan Zimmermann Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Jordan Zimmermann is a below average pitcher with exceptional control, but too much hard contact (9.0% Barrels/BBE), which pushes his 6.32 ERA well above estimators just below five, though a 6.19 DRA and .365 xwOBA. He has a .424 xwOBA at home this season, but more importantly, LHBs have a .406 wOBA and .425 xwOBA against him this year. The White Sox don’t offer a lot from that side, but Yoan Moncada (149 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP this season) looks like a beast tonight. He has a 215 wRC+ and 57.9 Hard% over the last week and is a great one off choice tonight. Another interesting bat from the left side would be Zack Collins (94 wRC+, .255 ISO). He’s a cheap catcher in a great spot and hopefully finds himself in a decent lineup spot, but considering the matchup and price, he may be playable in any spot.

Jordan ZImmermann has allowed just four runs over his last 16 innings, striking out 14 of 58 batters, but has just an 8.4 SwStr% over that span and 40.5 Hard%. In other words, this is a spot that favors the Twins, whose 5.81 implied run line is fourth best on the main slate. Zimmermann has a .359 xwOBA on the season, allowing 9.2% Barrels/BBE. At home, his xwOBA increases to .433 and LHBs have absolutely smashed him over the last calendar year (.382 wOBA, .407 xwOBA). Ehire Adrianza (96 wRC+, .121 ISO) is the only left-handed batter in the lineup below a 100 wRC+ against RHP over the same time span. Max Kepler (119 wRC+, .276 ISO) and Jorge Polanco (139 wRC+, .207 ISO) are two of the top overall bats on the main slate. RHBs Mitch Garver (111 wRC+, .287 ISO) and Nelson Cruz (138 wRC+, .263 ISO) have hammered same handed pitching, the latter with a 346 wRC+ and three HRs in 14 PAs over the last week. In fact, the Minnesota offense is the hottest on the board over the last seven days (141 wRC+, 23.8 HR/FB).

Jordan Zimmermann is second in strikeout rate (15.2%) and Hard-Soft (29.1%) on this board. Second worst that is. Additional places where we find him either worst or second worst (after David Hess was named starter by the O’s) are a 7.57 ERA, 5.34 SIERA, 7.90 DRA, 26.9 LD% and .381 xwOBA. Pair him with a quality offense tonight (109 wRC+, 16.3 HR/FB vs RHP), also with this lowest strikeout rate on the board (18.9% vs RHP), and fireworks should ensue. The Angels are the only offense outside Coors above six implied runs and batters from either side of the plate are above a .345 wOBA and xwOBA against Zimmermann over the last calendar year. Daily fantasy players should be jamming Mike Trout (200 wRC+, .385 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) into their lineups, along with a healthy heaping of Shohei Ohtani (161 wRC+, .310 ISO), plus a sprinkling in some Justin Upton (144 wRC+, .246 ISO) and Kole Calhoun (95 wRC+, .207 ISO), along with whoever leads off.

Jordan Zimmermann has allowed 14 runs over his last 7.1 innings. Somehow, he’s only allowed a single run over his last five starts, but has managed to allow less than three runs in just one of them. It’s not because he’s missing bats (14.6 K% lowest on the board) and it’s not because he’s avoiding hard contact (89.6 mph aEV, 9.6% Barrels/BBE), nor is he generating ground balls (37.2%). Yet, somehow, he’s kept the ball in the yard and (10.3 HR/FB) and still been pounded for a 7.01 ERA (7.43 DRA) with a .371 xwOBA. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him over the last 12 months. The Blue Jays are one of seven teams implied for at least 5.5 runs tonight and should return good value with only Lourdes Gurriel (106 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) above $4.3K on DraftKings and nobody above $4K on FanDuel. The only downside is that Eric Sogard (126 wRC+, .162 ISO) is the only batter in the projected lineup above a 100 wRC+ since the break. He also owns the lowest ISO vs RHP (last 12 months) among those projected.

Jordan Zimmermann returned from nearly a two month layoff to allow three runs in four innings against the Pirates, striking out four of 19 batters. His velocity was down and he had just a 6.7 SwStr%. His 91.2 Z-Contact% on the season is second worst on the board to go along with his 89.7 mph aEV. While Texas bats project well here (5.14 implied runs), they could still get lost in the shuffle with a full one-third of the board (10 teams) at 4.9 runs or higher tonight. LHBs have a particular advantage on a potentially still compromised pitcher (.367 wOBA, .350 xwOBA last 12 months). It doesn’t hurt this offense either that Joey Gallo (141 wRC+, .335 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is expected back tonight. Shin-soo Choo (137 wRC+, .216 ISO), Danny Santana (134 wRC+, .248 ISO), Nomar Mazara (103 wRC+, .188 ISO), Rougned Odor (94 wRC+, .222 ISO) and Ronald Guzman (113 wRC+, .228 ISO) are all dangerous hitters with power here.

Jordan ZImmermann has been somewhat of a league average pitcher this season, which is quite the improvement from previous years in Detroit, but he's facing a powerful lineup in Milwaukee tonight and batters from either side of the plate are within six points of a .330 wOBA against him, though LHBs have been slightly better by both wOBA and xwOBA (.343). The Brewers have a 5.38 implied run line that's barely second best on the board. Christian Yelich (166 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP) continues to light the league on fire (287 wRC+ last seven days), but costs more than some pitchers tonight. He may be more likely to reach 20 points though. Travis Shaw (137 wRC+, .290 ISO) is another potent bat in a nice spot here and perhaps the better value. Lorenzo Cain (110 wRC+, .093 ISO), Jesus Aguilar (130 wRC+, .262 ISO), and Mike Moustakas (113 wRC+, .235 ISO) are all playable here as well.

Paying down for pitching, or at least not paying more than $10K, is likely where the minds of most players are at tonight and as far as upside goes, that discussion probably starts with Nick Pivetta (28.2 K%, 3.36 SIERA, .305 xwOBA) and his unfathomable .337 BABIP in Miami tonight. There's nothing in his batted ball profile that supports the elevated BABIP and he gets a large park upgrade in a strong spot (Marlins 83 wRC+ at home, 86 wRC+ vs RHP). Pivetta costs exactly $8.2K on either site. He's allowed one run or less in three of his last five starts, but 11 total in the other two. Jordan Zimmermann (20.8 K%, 4.00 SIERA, .327 xwOBA) is having a league average season and while the White Sox' offense has improved, it's still a high upside spot (18.8 K-BB% vs RHP, 30.1 K% last seven days) at a low price. Hyun-Jin Ryu (28.6 K%, 3.14 SIERA, .270 xwOBA) is at home against the Mets (81 wRC+, 24.8 K%, 9.2 HR/FB), who have been improving against southpaws (see Rich Hill last night). He has not exceeded 89 pitches in any of his four starts back from the DL and costs $9.2K on DraftKings, but efficiency got him through seven innings last time out and the pitch count could normally get him through six. Mike Leake has become a much more effective contact manager in the second half of the season...well, he was until his last two starts in Oakland and Arizona (11 runs). He costs just $6.2K on DraftKings at home against the Orioles (76 wRC+, 18.6 K-BB% on the road). Miles Mikolas is a workhorse (highest average innings per start on the board) and a great contact manager (.304 xwOBA) in Washington. Michael Kopech struck out just one of 12 Boston batters before the rains came in his last start and just nine of 48 major league batters so far, but allowed just one run in six innings against Detroit two starts back and gets them again tonight. He had a 31.3 K% at AAA this season. Tyler Glasnow has a 33 K% in six starts for the Rays and has pitched into the seventh in two of his last three. He has a massive price discrepancy against the Blue Jays tonight and costs just $6.7K on FanDuel.

The Yankees are second highest of five teams above five implied runs tonight, sitting at 5.54 at home against Jordan Zimmermann, who has been marginally better than his previous seasons in Detroit, but is still in a spot where the Yankees should hurt him here. He doesn't have much of a split. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .323 and .337 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year, though RHBs actually have a hard hit rate five points higher. That works out fine for the top Yankee bats, mostly from the right side of the plate. Giancarlo Stanton (116 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP this season) does have three HRs against ZImmermann in 37 PAs, but that's about his average production. The offense has really been carries by two rookies in the absence of the two rookies who carried it last year. Miguel Andujar (133 wRC+, .226 ISO) and Gleyber Torres (123 wRC+, .198 ISO) have lived up to the hype. Aaron Hicks (130 wRC+, .195 ISO) adds some potency from the left side. Luke Voit has a .534 wOBA and .504 xwOBA against RHP in fewer than 30 PAs so far, but offers salary relief for stackers.

Only two teams have a higher run line than the Cubs at 5.35. Kevin's forecast has winds blowing out to left-center (10-15 mph) and Jordan Zimmermann has a reverse split this year (RHBs .347 wOBA, 38.7 Hard%, 29.6 GB%). Considering that he is no longer missing bats (14.4 K% last 30 days), the most interesting bat in this lineup is Javier Baez (118 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). He's the only RHB in the lineup above a .170 ISO vs RHP over that span. He's also the most expensive Cub on DraftKings, but is $1K less on FanDuel.