Jorge Lopez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Jorge Lopez is in arguably the best possible spot a starting pitcher can be in, facing a terrible Marlins’ lineup in pitcher’s haven Marlins Park tonight. Lopez does have an ugly 6.61 ERA in 98 innings (13 games started out of 34 appearances) but he also has a 4.61 xFIP, 4.54 SIERA, 13% K-BB and 45.6% GB rate that might indicate he’s had a bit of bad luck this season. One of Lopez’s problems has been keeping the ball in the yard as he does have an ugly 1.93 HR/9, but the Marlins are unlikely to take advantage of this as they have by far the least homeruns vs. RHP (85, the next closest is the Royals with 102) with just a 2.2% HR rate. Overall, the Marlins have a 76 wRC+ and 25.3% K rate vs. RHP this year. Their projected lineup has just 2 batters who have an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .310 on the year. Lopez is just $6k on Fanduel and even cheaper at $5.3k on Draftkings where he makes for a value SP2 option on tonight’s slate. Lopez has been back and forth between the bullpen and rotation over the past month and likely will have a slightly limited pitch count, but he doesn’t need too many pitches to hit value in this spot. The Marlins have just a 4.24 implied total vs. Lopez and the Royals tonight.

Jorge Lopez’s return to the rotation lasted 11 batters as the Tigers blasted him for rive runs on three walks with a home run last time out. Lopez was removed from a below average rotation for a reason in May. Some of those reasons include a 6.51 ERA, 7.49 DRA, 5.43 FIP and .366 xwOBA with a 90.5 mph aEV and 10.9% Barrels/BBE. Lopez has allowed 18 HRs in just 85.2 innings. He faces a below average Baltimore offense (89 wRC+, 16.2 K-BB%, 13.4 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), who may still be better than the last offense he faced in a more dangerous environment. The Orioles actually own the sixth highest implied run line on the board currently (5.32) and Lopez has a fairly large platoon gap despite RHBs owing a .345 xwOBA against him over the last calendar year. LHBs are sitting on a .391 wOBA and .371 xwOBA over that span. Jonathan Villar (114 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP this year) and Anthony Santander (118 wRC+, .215 ISO) should be solid values near the top of this lineup.

If you want to get some expensive bats in your lineup, Jorge Lopez could be a viable option in this spot. Lopez isn’t a household name by any means, but he comes in at just $6.1k on DK. The White Sox have just a 3.9 implied run vs. Lopez and the Royals. Lopez doesn’t K a ton of guys, most projection systems have him pegged as a 7 K/9 guy per Fangraphs. That said, working in Lopez's favor is the fact that the White Sox had a K rate vs. RHP of 25.8% in 2018, which was worst in the league. He does figure to at least be in a good spot for run prevention pitching at home vs. a CWS lineup that ranked 26th in the league in 2018 with a .310 xwOBA vs. RHP.

Jorge Lopez has allowed two runs over his last 15 innings, going eight innings against the Twins in his last start. He struck out just four and the Twins have a healthy 4.78 implied run line for the rematch. Lopez has decent minor league numbers, but is not much of a prospect. The more interesting thing here is the middle of the Minnesota batting order. Just two batters in the order are above a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP this season. They are Jake Cave (124 wRC+, .226 ISO) and Willians Astudillo (126 wRC+, .276 ISO), who generally bat lower in the order, but tonight they bat third and sixth, each costing less than $4K on DraftKing and around $2.5K on FanDuel.

Rays bats would appear to have some value tonight. Especially if considering paying up for Gerrit Cole. Jorge Lopez was a reliever at both AAA and the majors for Milwaukee before being included in the Moustakas trade. The Royals are attempting to convert him into a starter, something his scouting reports don't necessarily believe will be successful. His first start for the Royals did not go smoothly (4.2 IP – 6 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 3 K against Toronto). The Rays have a 4.64 implied run line that's well behind the top four teams, but still a top five mark tonight. The Kansas City bullpen, a major weakness for most the season, has improved to something near the middle of the pack over the last month (4.38 FIP, 12.3 K-BB%). While Lopez has a 90 point reverse split in his wOBA in work for the Brewers plus his start for the Royals this year, xwOBA closes the gap, but still increases both numbers above .375. Each of the first six batters in the lineup for the Rays is above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. Jake Bauers (112 wRC+, .214 ISO), Ji-Man Choi (122 wRC+, .239 ISO) and Tommy Pham (119 wRC+, .196 ISO) are the ones above a .140 ISO among that group. Only Mallex Smith (112 wRC+, .124 ISO) is above $4K on DraftKings with no Tampa Bay bat even reaching $3K on FanDuel.