Jorge Polanco Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Knee tendinitis cost Jorge Polanco some games towards the end of last season and although the Twins had hoped he would be ready in time to start the season, but that will not be the case. In 445 PAs last season, Polanco had a 119 wRC+ and was worth 1.8 fWAR. Nick Gordon should pick up the slack at Second Base in his absence. Gordon had a 111 wRC+ in 443 PAs last year and was worth 1.5 fWAR, so it doesn't appear the Twins should suffer much, though Gordon bats solely from the left-hand side, while Polanco is a switch-hitter.

WeatherEdge is projecting a decrease in home runs, and to a lesser degree a decrease in total runs for this matchup between the Twins and Yanks in New York. Still, the game currently has a healthy 9.5 O/U, two runs higher than Rays @ Astros game.

The Yankees will face off versus right-handed Randy Dobnak, who was called up late in the year for the Twins and provided a solid 1.59 ERA / 2.90 FIP / 3.77 SIERA with a 1.13 WHIP and 15.3% K-BB over 28 and 1/3 innings between the bullpen and rotation. Though it’s a small sample, Dobnak has been more effective vs. lefties (.261 xwOBA allowed in 59 PA) than righties (.316 xwOBA allowed in 59 PA). Once Dobnak is done, the Yankees will face a Twins bullpen that has the 3rd best SIERA (3.24) over the past month. Gary Sanchez (.381 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Aaron Judge (.380), Gio Urshela (.365), DJ LeMahieu (.364), Giancarlo Stanton (.362), Edwin Encarnacion (.356), Gleyber Torres (.327), Brett Gardner (.312) and Didi Gregorius (.286) make up all nine options in the Yanks’ projected order. Stanton and Judge have been the Yankees hottest hitters over the past 2 weeks with xwOBAs over .440, while Gregorius and Torres have been cold, each having an xwOBA below .200.

The Twins will matchup with Masahiro Tanaka and currently have a 4.07 implied total which feels a bit low given how stacked this Twins lineup is. Tanaka posted a middling 4.45 ERA / 4.27 FIP / 4.29 xFIP this year, and a similar 4.32 ERA / 3.97 FIP / 4.20 xFIP over the past 30 days. By xwOBA, Tanaka has been mostly platoon neutral over the past 3 years. When Tanaka is chased from the game, the Twins will face a Yanks bullpen that has an 8th best 3.68 SIERA over the past 30 days. Nelson Cruz (.405 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Jason Castro (.386), Jorge Polanco (.355), Jake Cave (.355), Miguel Sano (.350), Luis Arraez (.342), Max Kepler (.340), Eddie Rosario (.326) and Marwin Gonzalez (.313) are all options in the Twins projected order. Cave, Cruz and Sano all have an xwOBA over .425 over the past 2 weeks. Luis Arraez is the only aforementioned name with an xwOBA below .320 over the past 2 weeks. Jake Cave stands out as a very nice value on both major sites, especially given his recent success.

The Twins get another nice matchup today, this time versus Jorge Lopez. Lopez has posted a 5.93 ERA / 5.16 FIP with a 1.72 HR/9, 1.45 WHIP, 12.8% K-BB and 9% SwStr. Lopez has some ugly Statcast numbers, including an 11.4% barrel rate, 90.3 MPH aEV and .418 xwOBACON that are among the worst qualified starters in the league. Lopez has been a bit more vulnerable vs. lefties (.369 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB, .341 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB in his career) but can be targeted from both sides of the plate this afternoon. Nelson Cruz (.402 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), LaMonte Wade (.389), Jorge Polanco (.354), Miguel Sano (.350), Luis Arraez (.346), Mitch Garver (.340), Jake Cave (.336), Eddie Rosario (.323) and Marwin Gonzalez (.312) are all potential options in the Twins’ order. Mitch Garver has been on fire with a .524 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Arraez stands out as a nice value at just $4k on Draftkings and likely leading off. Cave, Gonzalez and Wade are all $3.7k or less on DK and a cheap way to get exposure to this lineup. The Twins currently have a 6.48 implied total vs. Lopez and the Royals.

The Twins have a whopping 7.11 vs. Glenn Sparkman tonight which is easily the highest total on the slate. Sparkman has really been bit by the home run ball this year, as he’s allowed an ugly 2.06 HR/9 which is part of the reason for his inflated 6.02 ERA / 5.89 xFIP / 5.64 SIERA line. He doesn’t miss many bats (12.9% K rate, 7.6% SwStr) and simply does not matchup well with this Twins team that has the 2nd most home runs this year with 201. Nelson Cruz (.403 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Jason Castro (.383), LaMonte Wade (.356), Jorge Polanco (.355), Miguel Sano (.352), Luis Arraez (.346), Jake Cave (.336), Eddie Rosario (.324) and Marwin Gonzalez (.315) are all potential options in the Twins’ order. Arraez is one of the best bargains on the slate, leading off with a price of $3.9k on DK and $2.6k on FD. Towards the bottom of the order Gonzalez, Cave, Castro and Wade all find themselves with very cheap pricing on each site are great value plays as well.

The White Sox will be looking to patch it together against the Twins tonight after Dylan Covey was scratched, but no matter who they drag out of the bullpen, the Minnesota offense should be well equipped to handle them. Considering weather conditions around the league tonight, Minnesota may be one of the few above average offenses hitting in a truly positive run environment tonight. As such, they’re slightly above the Astros (6.68 to 6.6) as the only two teams above six implied runs tonight. The first five in tonight’s projected lineup (Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, and Miguel Sano) all are above a .325 wOBA vs RHP and only Luis Arraez (.397 wOBA, .131 ISO) is below a .200 ISO. Minnesota bats are not cheap (though Arraez makes them more affordable), but they’re one of the more trustable offenses in a favorable spot tonight.

Reynaldo Lopez has garnered some attention in the second half of the season with a velocity and strikeout rate increase (23.5% since the break), sporting a matching 3.93 ERA and 3.90 FIP over 12 starts. Normalize the 9.8 HR/FB though and the xFIP still sits at 4.77 over this span and Lopez has hardly been consistent. In road starts against the Angels, Twins and Braves since the middle of August, Lopez has allowed at least five runs, while the Royals hit the ball out of the park four times against him in his last start. Five of the 47 Twins he’s faced have homered against him this year. That’s an average of one HR each trip through the lineup. This Minnesota lineup is incredibly difficult to navigate (112 wRC+, 21.3 K% and 25.6 Hard-Soft% vs RHP are all splits that are either best or second best on the board tonight). The projected lineup features six batters above a .340 wOBA and also six above a .200 ISO vs RHP this season and has the fourth best implied run line on the board tonight at 5.83. While LHBs (.365 wOBA, .346 xwOBA) have hit Lopez better than RHBs (.327 wOBA, .320 xwOBA) this year, five of his eight HRs allowed post-break have been surrendered to RHBs in a nearly equal amount of PAs. Nelson Cruz (147 wRC+, .283 ISO vs RHP this year), Mitch Garver (118 wRC+, .281 ISO), Jorge Polanco (140 wRC+, .212 ISO) and either Max Kepler (118 wRC+, .281 ISO) or whoever’s in the leadoff spot would be most interesting here.

Cleveland is already a sneaky top five positive run environment in baseball and tonight the forecast calls for winds out to center 10-15 mph that will give it another significant boost. Aaron Civale has a 1.93 ERA and allowed just his second HR (4.0 HR/FB) and first Barrel (0.8%) of the season to these Twins last time out, the only run he allowed despite just one more strikeout (four) than walks (three). The home run rate and quite possibly the .267 BABIP (23.3 LD%) are unsustainable, while three of his 13 runs have been unearned. While he has a .270 xwOBA, imagine something somewhere in between his 2.97 FIP, 4.64 SIERA and 5.16 DRA. While Civale legitimately has an xwOBA below .300 against batters from either side of the plate, as a fly ball pitcher (39.1 GB%), players still have to consider with three powerful bats in the middle: Jorge Polanco (139 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP), Nelson Cruz (149 wRC+, .280 ISO) and Miguel Sano (124 wRC+, .308 ISO). The Twins are tied for the seventh best implied run line on the board tonight (4.8).

Twins at Red Sox is likely to revert into a slugfest. While conditions are not expected to be as optimal for offense as some other spots tonight according to Weather Edge (premium subscription required), Fenway is the most positive run environment in play tonight and the Twins are starting a non-prospect 24 year-old rookie against a pitcher who has struggled all season.

Randy Dobnak had just an 8.8 K-BB% in 46 AAA innings before getting the call. He hasn’t walked any of the 37 batters he’s faced for the Twins, but has struck out just six with 41.9% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. He has generated a combined ground ball rate around 60% this year though. The Red Sox are the lowest of four teams above six implied runs though (6.14) and are an incredibly difficult matchup here with J.D. Martinez (283 wRC+, 47.1 Hard% last seven days) and Xander Bogaerts (303 wRC+, 70 Hard%) on fire. Mookie Betts and Rafael Devers join Bogearts above a 140 wRC+ and .230 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year.

The Twins are a bit lower on the board, but still at a healthy 5.36 implied runs that places them in the top third. Rick Porcello has just a 17.7 K% this year with an ERA, SIERA and DRA all above five. A reduced ground ball rate (37.5%) has led to 9.5% Barrels/BBE. 14 of his 26 HRs have come over his last 11 starts, beginning with that disaster in London. The projected lineup for the Twins features just one batter below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP (C.J. Cron 86) over the last calendar year and only two below a .195 ISO. Jorge Polanco (139 wRC+, .205 ISO) and Max Kepler (120 wRC+, .276 ISO) will face a pitcher who has generated a .344 wOBA and xwOBA against RHBs over the last 12 months.