Josh Reddick Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Mike Fiers has survived a low strikeout rate (15.8%) due to a great defense (.277 team BABIP) and lots of popups (39.9 GB%, 15.8 IFFB%) in a park designed to increase those results. Still, even his .324 xwOBA won’t subscribe to his 3.64 ERA, while non-FIP estimators are all at least a run removed. He’ll remain in a negative run environment in Houston, but one without so much foul ground and as Homer Baily found out last night, this Houston team can rake. In addition to their 115 wRC+ and 18.3 K% vs RHP, they are the hottest team in the land, leading the majors with a 152 wRC+ over the last week (24.6 HR/FB, 36.5 Hard-Soft%). While Fiers has hidden his contact issues with RHBs behind a .314 wOBA over the last calendar year, a .366 xwOBA and 42 Hard% suggest more difficulty and that’s bad news against a Houston offense featuring several prominent RH bats who handle same-handed pitching well. Implied for 5.3 runs (fourth), George Springer (152 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Alex Bregman (155 wRC+, .256 ISO) strong options tonight. How hard has Houston been hitting the ball recently? The only batter in the projected lineup with more than 10 PAs over the last week (excluding only Aledmys Diaz) below a 50% hard hit rate and 139 wRC+ is Josh Reddick (25 wRC+, 21.1 Hard%). The good fortune of Mike Fiers could come to an abrupt halt tonight.

The Astros will face Mike Minor tonight, who has actually been a solid pitcher this year with a 2.54 ERA, 4.43 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA with a 15.5% K-BB. Minor is likely due for at least some regression though, and playing in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park, the Astros still have a favorable 5.34 implied total. Once they chase Minor from the game, the Astros will get plate appearances versus a Rangers’ bullpen that has the 6th worst SIERA (4.51) in baseball. Despite a solid total, the Astros have good value options on both major sites tonight; they are available for $4.7k or less on Draftkings and $4.3k or less on Fanduel. Yordan Alvarez (.461 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Jose Altuve (.441), George Springer (.440), Robinson Chirinos (.385), Alex Bregman (.369), Josh Reddick (.325), Michael Brantley (.316), Yuli Gurriel (.308) and Tyler White (.256) are all options in the projected order. Altuve stands out as the best value as he costs just $3.6k on both sites. George Springer will leadoff and is just $4.7k on Draftkings / $4.3k on Fanduel. Michael Brantley projects to bat 4th and is $4.3k on DK/ $3.8k on Fanduel. Further down the order, Josh Reddick is just $3.5k on DK / $2.9k on FD while Tyler White is $2.6k or less on both sites. Astros hitters will also have the benefit of a hitter-friendly umpire calling balls and strikes in Mike Muchlinski.

Astros bats are usually expensive but have been priced down due to their environment in O.co tonight despite a matchup with Mike Fiers. They will be without Carlos Correa, George Springer and Jose Altuve but have some interesting value options in their lineup. Fiers has been awful this year with a 5 ERA / 5.39 xFIP / 5.08 SIERA with a 9.5% K-BB, 44% FB rate and just a 7% SwStr. Fiers hasn’t shown any signs of improvement either, with a 5.24 xFIP, 5.45 SIERA and 8% K-BB over the past 30 days. Alex Bregman (.400 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Michael Brantley (.376), Josh Reddick (.323) and Yuli Gurriel (.297) are decent options vs. Fiers Friday night. Derek Fisher (128 wRC+ in AAA this year) projects to lead off at just $3.4k on Draftkings. Gurriel projects to bat 4th and is just $3.1k, while Reddick projects to bat 5th at just $3.2k. Bregman and Brantley are both under $4.4k despite their continued success against RHP. The Astros have a 4.43 implied line vs. Fiers and the A’s.

Jon Lester has allowed 12 runs (nine earned) over his last two starts and while his peripherals had been improving most recently, prior to these two starts, it wasn’t hard to see some regression coming. His strikeout rate (23.3%) remains above league average despite an 8.2 SwStr% and just 7.5% over the last month. He’s still sitting on a 2.68 ERA despite a 3.92 SIERA, 4.42 DRA and .364 xwOBA. Some of this basically comes down to unearned runs (six of his 20 allowed this year), while he’s actually been getting hit pretty hard too (89.2 mph aEV). His 11.0% Barrels/BBE is the third highest mark on the board. The Astros generally feast on LHP. That may not be so pronounced with Springer and Altuve out, but there are still some dangerous bats in this lineup. It starts with Alex Bregman (163 wRC+, .268 ISO), but among those in the projected lineup who have more than a few days of big league experience, none of the RHBs are below a 120 wRC+ or .178 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. The more interesting thing is that Lester has actually been much worse against LHBs over this time span (.386 wOBA vs .309) and this is actually confirmed by a 52 point separation by xwOBA too. For the Astros, Josh Reddick (145 wRC+, .235 ISO) has hit LHP well over the last 12 months. Those certainly aren’t his true talent numbers, but they’re worth something. Michael Brantley has not (79 wRC+, .069). Jack Mayfield and Garrett Stubbs are new arrivals that add minimum price tag value to Houston stacks.

The Astros are at home facing Corey Kluber Friday night. Kluber has not looked quite like himself in 2019 with a 5.88 ERA / 4.89 xFIP / .330 xwOBA allowed and 4.15 BB/9 to start the year. His 38% hard contact rate would be the highest of his career, as would his 41.8 FB%. I don’t think it’s time to panic on Kluber, especially given his slow starts in previous years, but Astros hitters feel way underpriced in this matchup. Alex Bregman (.380 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Michael Brantley (.380), George Springer (.348), Jose Altuve (.345), and Carlos Correa (.302) all hit RHP well and are just $4.2k or less on Fanduel tonight. Correa stands out as the best value at just $3.6k in the midst of a bounce-back campaign with a .364 xwOBA, in line with his career average of .362. George Springer (.504 xwOBA over the past 10 days), Josh Reddick (.474) and Michael Brantley (.452) have all swung the bat exceptionally well of late.

The Astros face Felix Hernandez in Seattle Saturday night and have an implied total of 4.99, which feels low given the matchup. Felix hasn’t shown any signs of halting his decline in 2019, which has seem him post an ugly .356 xwOBA against and 5.10 ERA since 2017. Felix has been especially bad vs. LHB with a .378 xwOBA allowed since 2017 compared to .339 vs. RHB. Michael Brantley (.379 xwOBA vs. RHP in 2018), Jose Altuve (.347), George Springer (.336), Carlos Correa (.301) and Yuli Gurriel (.283) should make up the top 5 of the order. All will be priced in the mid $4k range on Draftkings besides Gurriel ($3.6k. Josh Reddick (.298) figures to be the best value play at just $3.4k. Carlos Correa had a rough 2018 but seems to have regained form with a .375 xwOBA to start 2019 and can be had with a slight discount across the industry. Jose Altuve has 5 home runs in his last 4 games and has an xwOBA of .397 in 2019.

The Astros face Aaron Brooks at home tonight and have an implied total of 5.06, highest on the slate besides the Dodgers at Coors. The Astros are an intriguing stack if you aren’t going all in on Coors. Brooks has a career 7.29(!) ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 8.9% K-BB in 66.2 career IP dating back to 2014. He has actually been worse vs. RHB for his career, giving up a .420 wOBA to righties versus a .351 mark against lefties. To Brooks credit, he did start the season well against the Red Sox, holding them to 2 hits over 6 IP with a 6/1 K/BB while showing increased velocity. Still, he is a journeyman who projects to be terrible this year (4.87 ERA per Steamer) and is certainly someone to target. Bregman (.359 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2017), Springer (.352), Altuve (.357) and Correa (.348) are all core ‘Stros that are in play. Correa’s price on FD has been a bargain the past few days and remains too cheap to pass up at just $3.2k. Michael Brantley (.360 xwOBA vs. RHP last year) is batting cleanup and comes in at a cool $3.5k on FD.