Justin Bour Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Mike Leake doesn’t give many free passes as he has just a 3.5% BB rate, leading to a good WHIP (1.24) and respectable 4.32 ERA. However, Leake does give up a lot of loud contact as evidenced by a 40.6% hard contact rate, 91.4 MPH aEV, .343 xwOBA and .401 xwOBA on contact. It makes some sense to deploy high upside, strikeout prone free-swingers like Shohei Ohtani (.403 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Justin Upton (.486) and Justin Bour (.286) versus a pitcher like Leake who consistently works in the zone and does not miss many bats with a 7.9% SwStr and 17.3% K rate. Other options in the LAA projected lineup include Mike Trout (.499), Kole Calhoun (.342) and David Fletcher (.337). Recent call-up Matt Thaiss (115 wRC+, .203 ISO in AAA this year) is also in play. Justin Bour started off the season slow, but does have an improved .321 xwOBA over the past month. Calhoun, Upton and Bour are all $4.1k or less on Draftkings, while Matt Thaiss is just $3k. The Angels have a solid 5.67 implied line vs. Leake and the Mariners at home tonight.

Mike Fiers has pitched much worse than his ERA suggests this year, as he’s put up a 4.20 ERA while also posting a 5.54 xFIP, 5.30 SIERA with an 8.5% K-BB%, 43.1% FB rate and .329 xwOBA. Fiers has shown no signs of improvement as he has a 5.65 xFIP, 5.60 SIERA, 6.4% K-BB and 41.3% FB rate. The Angels have been the hottest offense in baseball over the past month with a 121 wRC+ and will have a number of good options in their lineup tonight at home vs. Fiers. Mike Trout (.496 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Justin Upton (.472 in 33 PA), Shohei Ohtani (.397), Tommy La Stella (.361), Kole Calhoun (.349), Luis Rengifo (.329), Albert Pujols (.312) and Jonathan Lucroy (.322) are all in play tonight vs. Fiers. Justin Bour is also an intriguing option as he has a .469 xwOBA over the past 14 days as he seems to have straightened his swing out during his time in the minors; he can be had for just $4k on Draftkings. Tommy La Stella ($4k), Justin Upton ($3.9k), Kole Calhoun ($4k) and Jonathan Lucroy ($3.1k) all stand out as great values. The Angels have a healthy 5.44 implied total vs. Fiers and the A’s tonight.

Tanner Anderson has started three games for the A’s with a 19.1 K% and 7.7 SwStr%, 91 Z-Contact% and 48.8 Z-O-Swing%. All of those numbers are much worse than average. He does have a 59.1 GB% with an 86.1 mph aEV, but somehow 12.8% of his contact has still been labelled as a Barrel and 20% of his fly balls have left the yard. These are still small sample size things, but aside from the ground ball rate, none of it’s really very encouraging, while his 4.3 K-BB% in 54.2 AAA innings doesn’t help matters either. The Angels have a 113 wRC+, 17.4 K% and 22.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP this year. This is the offense to target outside Coors tonight. At 5.32 implied runs, they’re the only offense outside Coors even above 4.5 implied runs tonight. Anderson has been hammered by LHBs for a .398 wOBA (.418 xwOBA) in his three starts with a 48.8 Hard%. Tommy La Stella (132 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Shohei Ohtani (155 wRC+, .303 ISO), Cole Kalhoun (116 wRC+, .255 ISO), Brian Goodwin (115 wRC+, .170 ISO) and Justin Bour (92 wRC+, .217 ISO) are Dodger alternatives tonight if in tonight’s lineup.

Aaron Sanchez has been a pitcher to target this year as he has a 5.04 ERA / 5.18 xFIP / 5.32 SIERA with a 6.4 K-BB% and 9.3% SwStr. Sanchez does get groundballs at a very good clip (50%), but walks too many batters, doesn’t generate enough K’s and ultimately has given up a .346 xwOBA on the year. Over the past 30 days he’s been even worse, with a 7.50 ERA / 5.93 xFIP / 5.91 SIERA and 0.9% K-BB. Sanchez has been pretty platoon neutral since 2018 (.347 xwOBA vs. lefties, .355 xwOBA vs. righties) and can be targeted from both sides of the plate. The Angels get a nice park upgrade going from Angel Stadium to the Rogers Centre and suddenly have a dangerous lineup with Justin Upton back in the mix. Mike Trout (197 wRC+ vs. RHP since 2018), Shohei Ohtani (163 wRC+), Tommy La Stella (146 wRC+), Justin Upton (144 wRC+), Justin Bour (112 wRC+) and David Fletcher (108 wRC+) are all great options tonight. Trout and Ohtani are priced above $5k on Draftkings, but there are some good value options like Upton ($4.1k) Fletcher ($3.9k), Bour ($3.8k) and even La Stella ($4.6k) who will be leading off. The Angels have a 5.47 implied line versus Sanchez and the Blue Jays tonight.

Felix Hernandez has a reasonable 4.38 ERA supported by a 4.12 SIERA through his first 12 innings of 2019. Maybe you’re thinking that even a 17.5 K% might not kill you on this slate for less than $8K. He’s even been pretty efficient with just one walk and a 51.2 GB%. This would seem a reasonable line of thought, but be careful of some concerning underlying numbers. Hernandez is the board worst in both SwStr (5.6%) and Z-Contact (95.7%) rates, while facing an offense that has struck out in just 15.5% of plate appearances vs RHP this year and just 15.8% overall over the last seven days. Lots of balls in play bring additional problems besides lack of upside. Hernandez has an unimpressive 89.8 mph aEV and the Seattle defense owns a major league worst -27 DRS. Only one other team is worse than -20. So, if you’re thinking about Felix tonight, you might want to think again. And we didn’t even make the obligatory mention of Mike Trout’s mastery of him. Strongly consider the top half of the home offense in this one instead. Hopefully, that includes Justin Bour (113 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Kole Calhoun (83 wRC+, .199 ISO), along with Trout, though Hernandez has shown no discernable platoon split over the last calendar year (RHBs .345 wOBA, LHBs .347).