Justin Upton Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

While no Mike Trout makes watching the Angels less fun, they still several bats who can handle LHP and, in fact, are one of just two offenses to reach five implied runs tonight against Justus Sheffield and the struggling Seattle bullpen. Although he’s allowed just two runs in two of his last three starts, Sheffield has walked nine and struck out just six of his last 69 batters with a 6.6 SwStr%. He now has just a 6.8 K-BB% on the season with a 90.3 mph EV and 10.6% Barrels/BBE. A 4.50 FIP is his best estimator and that’s only due to a 10.6 HR/FB that may not be sustainable with his contact profile (5.81 xERA). RHBs now have a .332 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against him since last season. Sheffield is also backed by a Seattle bullpen with a 5.93 ERA over the last 30 days (although all of their estimators are below four). Justin Upton (127 wRC+, 300 ISO vs LHP since 2020) has found a new home in the leadoff spot and costs just $3.5K or less on either site. Phil Gosselin (148 wRC+, .195 ISO) has been starting against lefties and still costs the minimum on FanDuel. Mitch Haniger (136 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP, 137 wRC+ last 30 days) is also interesting in this game, as RHBs have a .362 wOBA against Griffin Canning since last season and the bullpen for the Angels has a major league worst 5.56 FIP to match their 5.60 ERA over the last 30 days. Considering that Canning rarely pitches deep into games, cheaper bats like Kyle Seager (125 wRC+, .220 ISO), Ty France (132 wRC+) and Taylor Trammell (119 wRC+, .286 ISO) are interesting too here.

In 11 career games as a starting pitcher, Josh Smith has a 6.70 ERA with a 5.83 xFIP, 4.6% K-BB and 1.82 (!) WHIP. He’s also allowed a .377 xwOBA and 88.8 MPH aEV in those starts. With the exception of Mike Trout, the Angels have a nice selection of bats that have upside and are affordable. Mike Trout (.473 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Shohei Ohtani (.378), Kole Calhoun (.333), David Fletcher (.323), Brian Goodwin (.322), Justin Upton (.314), Kevan Smith (.302) and Albert Pujols (.299) are all in play tonight. Brian Goodwin (.410) has been the Angels’ hottest hitter over the past 2 weeks, followed by Trout with a .399 mark. Fletcher (projected to leadoff) and Upton (projected to bat 4th) are both available for just $3.7k on Draftkings tonight. Calhoun ($4.4k), Pujols ($4k) and Kevan Smith ($2.9k) also look like nice values on DK. Ohtani ($4.9k) and Trout ($5.5k) are by far the two most expensive bats here but could be well worth it as both have continued to mash RHP this year. All Angels’ bats project for decently low ownership tonight, making them an intriguing GPP stack.

Ariel Jurado has the worst xwOBA on the board over the last 30 days (.405), while his 43.6% 95+ mph EV is worst on the board for the season. While it always helps getting out of Texas, it’s unlikely many parks are strong enough make a pitcher with a 15.6 K%, 6.60 DRA and all that hard contact a good bet. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA with a hard hit rate above 40% against him over the last 12 months. The Angels have a 5.44 implied run line that’s sixth best on the board tonight. Aside from Mike Trout (198 wRC+, .393 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Shohei Ohtani (140 wRC+, .249 ISO), Kole Calhoun (102 wRC+, .226 ISO) and Justin Upton (106 wRC+, .201 ISO) complete a powerful stack. David Fletcher (102 wRC+, .099 ISO) could be good for a run or two should he reach base ahead of the slugging portion of the lineup.

Since 2017, Hector Santiago has a 5.06 ERA, 5.75 xFIP, 8% K-BB and 50.6% FB rate and just a 16.3% soft contact rate, as well as a .354 xwOBA allowed and an 89.4 MPH aEV in 184 innings. Over 43 innings in AAA this year, Santiago had an uninspiring 5.57 xFIP and 12.7% BB rate. Though he’s a lefty, Santiago has actually been worse vs. lefties; since 2017, he owns a .390 xwOBA allowed vs. lefties compared to a .342 xwOBA vs. righties. Mike Trout (.428 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Kole Calhoun (.365), Albert Pujols (.350), Wilfredo Tovar (.333), David Fletcher (.321), Shoehei Ohtani (.285) Max Stassi (.222), Justin Upton (.226) are all options in the LAA projected order. Trout has been on fire recently with a .465 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, while Albert Pujols (.222) and Max Stassi (.124) have really struggled. Stassi might still be worth a shot at a price of just $2k on Draftkings. Projected leadoff man David Fletcher is just $3.4k on Draftkings and one of the better values on the slate. Justin Upton is just $4k on DK; he’s been bad this year but figures to turn it around soon as he has a 121 career wRC+ and has never finished below a 105 wRC+ in any season. The Angels have a healthy 5.79 implied total vs. Santiago and the White Sox.

Jordan Zimmermann is second in strikeout rate (15.2%) and Hard-Soft (29.1%) on this board. Second worst that is. Additional places where we find him either worst or second worst (after David Hess was named starter by the O’s) are a 7.57 ERA, 5.34 SIERA, 7.90 DRA, 26.9 LD% and .381 xwOBA. Pair him with a quality offense tonight (109 wRC+, 16.3 HR/FB vs RHP), also with this lowest strikeout rate on the board (18.9% vs RHP), and fireworks should ensue. The Angels are the only offense outside Coors above six implied runs and batters from either side of the plate are above a .345 wOBA and xwOBA against Zimmermann over the last calendar year. Daily fantasy players should be jamming Mike Trout (200 wRC+, .385 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) into their lineups, along with a healthy heaping of Shohei Ohtani (161 wRC+, .310 ISO), plus a sprinkling in some Justin Upton (144 wRC+, .246 ISO) and Kole Calhoun (95 wRC+, .207 ISO), along with whoever leads off.