Kendall Graveman Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Kendall Graveman got good and bad news this morning. He's coming back to the majors, but he's also facing the Yankees. Their 5.63 implied run line is only behind the Rockies at Coors tonight, which essentially makes them first considering the lack of production from that lineup this year. Graveman has a 53.1 GB% and 7.1 SwStr%, which is essentially what his career has been. His .393 xwOBA is tied for third worst on the board. Batters from either side exceed a .340 xwOBA against him since last year with right-handed batters more potent (.376 xwOBA), despite a ground ball rate over 13 points higher. The good news for Graveman is that Gary Sanchez is out of the lineup tonight. This perhaps also makes Yankee stacks more affordable. Aaron Judge (179 wRC+, .333 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Giancarlo Stanton (137 wRC+, .307 ISO), Neil Walker (127 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Gleyber Torres (152 wRC+, .200 ISO) all have a 175 or better wRC+ over the last week. Judge, Stanton, Brett Gardner (111 wRC+, .158 ISO) and Aaron Hicks (99 wRC+, .177 ISO) all have a 50+ Hard% over the last week as well. Didi Gregorius (132 wRC+, .264 ISO) is one of few struggling bats in this lineup right now (-94 wRC+ last seven days).

The Boston Red Sox have an implied run line over four and a half runs against Kendall Graveman, who barely has a double digit strikeout rate this season. Batters from either side have an xwOBA above .340 against him with right-handed batters actually having more success (.381 xwOBA, .370 wOBA) since last season. While he does keep RHBs on the ground more often (57.2% vs 42%) with about average contact authority to both sides, he just can't generate any swings and misses. J.D. Martinez's absence from the lineup tonight may actually be an opportunity to find more affordability in the Boston lineup. Mitch Moreland (105 wRC+, .390 xwOBA, .218 ISO) actually has the highest ISO in the lineup against RHP since last season and has an xwOBA 55 points higher than his actual number. He costs just $3.2K on DraftKings and joins Mookie Betts (114 wRC+, .209 ISO) with a wRC+ above 250 over the last week.

Cole Hamels, an under-performing Texas offense on the road, and a pitcher's park in Oakland wouldn't seem the most obvious place for a shootout tonight, but the game total is nine with both sides projected above four runs. Both of these pitchers struggled in their first start. Hamels was down three full miles per hour from last year (89.2 mph). He walked four Astros and allowed two HRs. Kendall Graveman struck out just one of 22 Angels, also generating just a 38.1% ground ball rate and allowing three home runs. While Jed Lowrie tops the lineup with just a 112 wRC+ vs LHP since last season, Matt Olson (.240 ISO), Matt Chapman (.214 ISO) and Khris Davis (.232 ISO) all showed significant power against southpaws, while Stephen Piscotty and Marcus Semien both exceed a .190 ISO for their career against LHP. For the Rangers, only Elvis Andrus and Ryan Rua have an ISO below .187 against RHP since last season. If the opposing pitcher is not going to miss bats, there's some value in the Texas lineup too. Joey Gallo has a 123 wRC+ and .345 ISO with the platoon advantage since the start of 2017. It should be noted that despite Hamels' struggles, he did have a 12.8 SwStr% in his first start and Oakland had a 24.2 K% against LHP last year. Hamels could pile up strikeouts and HRs tonight.

C.C. Sabathia has done a great job of managing contact this year. He may still have some issues facing a powerful, predominantly RH lineup in Baltimore, but it's probably not a surprise at this point to find out that his 84.8 mph aEV is lowest on the slate. What might be a surprise is the two pitchers who are lower. Both have sample size issues and would probably increase over a full season, but the point stands that neither Ordrisamer Despaigne (81.6 mph aEV in 28 IP) nor Ben Lively (84.5 mph aEV in 59 IP) are allowing a lot of hard contact. Neither misses enough bats to be considered a useful daily fantasy pitcher with strikeout rates below 15%, but they may not necessarily be pitchers players should be lining up to attack either. Both have a 95+ mph EV rate below 30% as well. Jacob deGrom and Michael Wacha are the only other pitchers on the board who can boast that as well. Lively does have a 23.6 K% (10.5 SwStr%) over his last three starts, but in the outing with the most strikeouts (eight) and only above average SwStr%, he also allowed four HRs with a 50% hard hit rate. On the other end of the spectrum, Kendall Graveman has the worse aEV (89.5 mph) and 95+ mph EV (42%). No other pitcher is above 88.5 mph or 40%. Robert Stephenson (9.9%) and Ariel Miranda (9.7%) have the highest rate of Barrels on batted balls. Stephenson has a 15+ SwStr% in three of his last four starts with just one HR allowed over his last five though.

Jason Vargas has had some success as a low strikeout, extreme fly ball pitcher due to a big park, great outfield defense and lots of weak contact. He has an ERA above seven over his last seven starts because one of those things has gone away. He's allowed 10 HRs over that span with a 44.5% hard hit rate. Cleveland bats with power should be closely looked at tonight. Jake Odorizzi matches that hard hit rate (45.6%), only RHBs for the entire year with 17 of his 25 HRs allowed. Unfortunately, Tommy Pham is not in the St Louis lineup tonight, but some Paul DeJong (130 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP) exposure may be mandatory. Some other pitchers who have allowed too much hard contact include Parker Bridwell who's 88.4 mph aEV and 39.7% 95+ mph EV are both among the worst rates on the board with a 23.3 LD% to match. He has a 2.92 ERA due to an 83.8 LOB%. Kendall Graveman's 89 mph aEV and 41.6 95+ mph EV are both highest on the board. Jerad Eickhoff has a 35.3 GB% over his last seven starts with a hard hit rate above 33% in six of them. Ariel Miranda has allowed a league leading 31 HRs this year and his 9.0% Barrels/BBE is the second worst mark on the board. His opponent, the Yankees are second in sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers (114). Jeremy Hellickson allowed five HRs in his last start and has a hard hit rate above 40% in five of his last seven starts without a ground ball rate exceeding 40% in any of those starts. Premium subscribers have access to the daily Trendspotting article, which matches batters making the hardest contact with pitchers allowing it each day and it favors some Boston batters tonight against a pitcher allowing nearly 10% Value Hits to LHBs this year. LHBs have a 13.6 GB% and 42.5 Hard% over that span. Robert Stephenson has the only double digit barrel rate on the board (11.6% of BBEs). Premium subscribers have access to the daily Trendspotting article, which matches batters making the hardest contact with pitchers allowing it each day.

Matt Joyce has homered twice in 18 career PAs against Ricky Nolasco, but has just an 87.3 mph aEV on five Statcast recorded BBE in the matchup. There's not much BvP help for players tonight, as no other hitter has more than one HR against the pitcher they are facing tonight. Among those with more than 10 BBEs against tonight's opponent, only Albert Pujols (93.8 mph aEV on 18 BBEs) and Kole Calhoun (94.9 mph aEV on 18 BBEs) have an aEV above 91 mph against the pitcher they are facing tonight. Each only has a single HR and just two extra-base hits against Kendall Graveman, who has generally kept the ball on the ground in the past (50.6 career GB%), but has just a 40.2 GB% this season.

Kendall Graveman generated some excitement with a March boost in velocity, but has dropped nearly a half mile per hour in each start since his first, generating just two swinging strikes in his last start. He's throwing his sinker 90% of the time, but his once strong ground ball rate (above 50%) is now down around league average (44%). Despite hard contact at a 36% rate this year, he's stranded 100% of his runners with a .204 BABIP, which has kept his ERA more than two runs below his estimators. He has virtually no platoon split, so as usual with the Angels, it's Mike Trout (172 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP since 2015) or nothing. In 21 career PAs though, Trout has just an 84.2 mph aEV (one HR) on 19 BBE against Graveman. Kole Calhoun (112 wRC+, .162 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 95.5 mph aEV on 15 BBE.

And in the unlikeliest Opening Day matchup, Ricky Nolasco faces Kendall Graveman in Oakland. You can be sure this is where most the offensive ownership will come from on this slate even in such a pitcher friendly park. Nolasco had spent a career frustrating those who put significant stock in ERA estimators, but last year was his first season with both a FIP and xFIP above four. He has shown a significant reverse platoon split over the last two years, but this is not the case for his career. On a three game slate, that would seem to open up the entire Oakland offense to players. Ryon Healy returns the best bat in this lineup vs RHP last year (131 wRC+, .213 ISO) in the three slot and he is flanked by the capable bats of Matt Joyce, who bounced back with a 141 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP in 2016 and Khris Davis (119 wRC+, .276 ISO). Kendall Graveman misses few bats (13.6 K% in 2016) but did have a 52.1 GB%. He did surrender 22 HRs last season, with little platoon split, though LHBs (49.5 GB%) elevated against him slightly more often than RHBs (55 GB%). Mike Trout (172 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP) is always the obvious name, but C.J. Cron was fairly potent against same handed pitching as well (126 wRC+, .201 ISO). Kole Calhoun (113 wRC+, .164 ISO) was the top bat from the LH side.

Kendall Graveman gets by pretty well against right-handed batters with his ground balls (54.9%) and soft contact (25.5% Hard%), but he doesn’t have the same skills to left-handed batters. He still gets above average ground balls at 49.8%, but with no ability to limit hard hits and just a 13.6% strikeout rate, this lineup should be able to get to him. Robinson Cano (151 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .256 ISO vs RHP) and Kyle Seager (152 wRC+, .392 wOBA, .235 ISO vs RHP) are two of the top plays of the day without taking price into account. On FanDuel, they remain at the top of the list with their low salaries, but on DraftKings, Cano becomes a tournament-only play at $5.5K, and pretty tough to play even in a Seattle stack at that price. Seth Smith (120 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .179 ISO vs RHP) and Adam Lind (.206 ISO, 38.6% hard hits vs RHP) are playable in stacks or as tournament one offs.