Kevin Kiermaier Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Over 36 and 1/3 innings this year, Buchholz has posted a 5.45 ERA, 5.49 xFIP and 5.78 SIERA with just a 12.1% K rate, 7.4% BB Rate and 8.1% SwStr. He’s also allowed a .376 xwOBA, 12.6% barrel rate and 85.6 MPH aEV per Statcast and is averaging just 89 MPH on his fastball. Buchholz will get the start tonight vs. a Rays offense that has struggled a bit of late (93 wRC+ last 30 days) but has plenty of good options vs. RHP. Buchholz has mostly been platoon-neutral since 2016 and can be targeted confidently from either side of the plate. Austin Meadows (.383 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Nate Lowe (.371), Ji-Man Choi (.369), Avisail Garcia (.339), Willy Adames (.331), Kevin Kiermaier (.297) and Joey Wendle (.281) are all options in the Rays’ projected order. Choi and Meadows have been their hottest hitters, both coming in with an xwOBA over .400 over the past 2 weeks. Wendle has not been great this year but projects to lead off and costs just $3.3k on Draftkings. Garcia is also a nice value, projected to bat 3rd at just $3.9k. Mike Zunino (.282 xwOBA vs. RHP, $2.6k on DK) and Kean Wong (116 wRC+ in AAA, $2.2k on DK) are both super cheap salary relief options at the bottom of the Rays’ order.

Bundy has had a pretty similar year to his 2018, posting a 5.03 ERA, 4.54 xFIP and 4.45 SIERA with a 1.32 WHIP and 15.8% K-BB. Bundy has always had a solid K-BB% throughout his career, but has had trouble with home runs (1.77 HR/9 this year, career 1.71 HR/9). Bundy also has a very wide platoon split, allowing a .344 xwOBA vs. lefties compared to a .294 xwOBA vs. righties since 2018. Bundy faces the Rays this afternoon, who will have 5 lefties in their starting lineup: Eric Sogard (.398 xwOBA vs. RHP since joining Rays), Austin Meadows (.382 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Ji-Man Choi (.361), Kevin Kiermaier (.291) and Joey Wendle (.273). Though without the platoon advantage vs. Bundy, Tommy Pham (.360) and Avisail Garcia (.347) are also in play. Pham has been the Rays’ hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .409 xwOBA, followed by Ji-Man Choi with a .395 mark. With the exception of Meadows, all Rays bats are available for less than $5k on Draftkings. They currently have a healthy 5.41 implied total vs. Bundy and the Orioles and do not project to see very high ownership on this slate.

Boy, those strikeouts sure disappeared on Asher Wojciechowksi in a hurry. He had at least six strikeouts with a total of eight walks through his first five starts, but has not exceeded five in any of his last four starts with exactly three walks in each. The one thing that has remained a constant is the hard contact though. He’s allowed a HR in eight of his nine starts overall and seven over this last four outings. In fairness, he has faced the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros in his last three starts, but while the Rays aren’t in that class, it’s still another formidable offense in a power friendly park. If Asher is only going to miss bats at a league average rate with a 24.4 GB%, there are going to be problems in this park. His 14.5% Barrels/BBE is highest on the board by a significant margin. LHBs have a .368 wOBA and .372 xwOBA against him this season. Austin Meadows (136 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Ji-Man Choi (128 wRC+, .195 ISO) should be strong plays in the top half of this lineup. Kevin Kiermaier (98 wRC+, .242 ISO) could be another name to look at depending on where he appears in the lineup. The Rays are a top three offense tonight at 5.96 implied runs.

After trading Andrew Cashner, the Orioles called up Tom Eshleman to make his 2nd career start Sunday afternoon vs. the Rays. Eshelman had pretty mediocre numbers at every MiLB stop, and projects as anywhere from a 5.50-6.50 ERA pitcher by projection systems. The Rays have scored 30 runs in 3 games since the All-Star break and look to be in yet another good spot this afternoon vs. Eshelman and an Orioles bullpen that is already bad (4th worst 4.57 SIERA this year) and is worn down after being torched all weekend. Nate Lowe (.441 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Austin Meadows (.384), Tommy Pham (.382), Travis d’Arnaud (.354 since joining TB) and Ji-Man Choi (.350) are all great options. Kevin Kiermaier (.298) is batting 3rd and while he isn’t a good hitter, he’s been a stolen base threat with 17 now on the year. Michael Brosseau hit 2 homers last night and now has a 211 wRC+ in 36 PA this year; he costs just $3.2k on Draftkings and will bat 5th. Nate Lowe will cost just $3.6k on Draftkings and will bat 4th, while Ji-man Choi is also a nice bargain, costing $3.6k and batting 6th. The Rays currently have a 6.30 implied total this afternoon and project as one of the best PTS/$ stacks on the board on the early slate.

Tom Eshelman will make his major league debut for the Orioles in Tampa Bay. He began the season in the Philadelphia organization and was not a prospect of interest. After making five starts for them at AAA (22.6 K%, 4.5 BB%), he moved over to the Orioles, where he currently ranks 22nd in the org. (Fangraphs) with a 40 Future Value grade. He’s struck out just 11 of 84 batters (six walks) in three AAA starts for Baltimore. Already 25 years-old, there doesn’t seem to be much hope for further development left and he’s never previously struck out more than 20% of batters or had a ground ball rate above 45% above A ball since 2016, as he’s toiled around the upper minors. While there’s always some advantage to the unknown, this wouldn’t seem like the type of pitcher we’d expect to generate a high daily fantasy point total or hold back the Tampa Bay offense. With the exception of DH Brendan McKay getting his first major league PAs, the Rays’ lineup does not feature a single batter below a .169 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year with only Mike Zunino (75), Kevin Kiermaier (93) and Avisail Garcia (101) below a 117 wRC+. The Rays currently top the board at 5.79 implied runs.

While most of the attention is going to be on Coors tonight, the highest implied run line outside Colorado resides in Tampa Bay (5.25), despite a firmly negative run environment. Why might that be? Andrew Cashner’s 5.31 ERA does not even accurately reflect how bad he’s been this year. His 6.39 FIP is a full run higher than that. His 6.44 FIP still even higher. Cashner has just one quality start in four this year and that was against a poor Toronto offense. He has the worst strikeout rate on the board over the last two years (13.2%), this year (10.1%), on the road since last year (12.2%), and over the last two weeks (6.7%). His .427 xwOBA, 92.8 mph aEV and 52.2% 95+ mph EV are all worst on the board for this season as well. Also worst on the board, his 36.2 Hard-Soft% in 2019, while the Rays have the second best split on the board in that category tonight (33.2% - Brewers 39.8% vs LHP is best).

This is an under-rated Tampa Bay lineup. Each of the first five batters in it are above a 110 wRC+ vs RHP over the last 12 months, while the sixth and seventh batters (Mike Zunino & Kevin Kiermaier) are above a .200 ISO against them. Tommy Pham is the only one of those first seven below a 140 wRC+ over the last week, but does so with a 53.9 Hard%. Ji-Man Choi (144 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Brandon Lowe (138 wRC+, .250 ISO) have been the overall top bats against RHP over the last year. There are very few soft spots or poor values in this lineup.