Kevin Newman Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Pirates get the Coors boost this weekend and will be facing off against Tim Melville tonight. Melville had a 5.42 ERA / 5.76 xFIP over 96 AAA innings this year with a 2.24 HR/9. Melville does have a 0.75 ERA over 12 innings this year but with a 5.29 xFIP, .200 BABIP and 100% LOB rate. Melville projects as a 7+ ERA pitcher going forward by two different projection systems (THE BAT and ZiPS) and is someone to continue to target, especially in Coors. Once Melville is chased from the game, Pirates hitters will see at bats versus a Rockies’ bullpen that has a 6th worst 4.75 SIERA over the past 30 days. Josh Bell (.401 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Starling Marte (.382), Bryan Reynolds (.373), Jose Osuna (.336), Adam Frazier (.330), Colin Moran (.326), Kevin Newman (.305) and Jacob Stallings (.295) are all in play tonight for the Pirates. Marte has been their hottest bat with a .394 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Josh Bell wit a .379 mark. All Pirates bats are $4.9k+ on Draftkings with the exception of Stallings ($3.4k). On Fanduel, all Pirates bats are under $4k besides Bell, Marte and Newman. The Pirates are currently sitting at a healthy 6.98 implied total.

Drew Smyly continues to get chances in what has been a terrible year for him; after 51 innings with the Rangers and opting out of a minor-league contract with the Brewers, Smyly has found himself in the Phillies’ rotation. Over 51 1/3 innings this year, Smyly has an atrocious 8.42 ERA, 6.36 xFIP, 5.61 SIERA and 7.2% K-BB with a 50.6% hard contact rate and just a 27% GB rate. He also owns a .390 xwOBA allowed, 11.6% barrel rate and 89.7 MPH aEV. Smyly has been platoon neutral on the year (.388 xwOBA vs. RHB, .396 xwOBA vs. LHB) and can be targeted from both sides of the plate today. Bryan Reynolds (.372 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Josh Bell (.366), Kevin Newman (.330), and Starling Marte (.330) are all great options. Adam Frazier (.269) has struggled vs. LHP this year but projects to leadoff at just $3.9k. Starling Marte has been their hottest hitter since with all-star break with a .422 xwOBA, followed by Corey Dickerson with a .387 mark. Pirates hitters should also see a decent amount of PA versus the Phillies’ bullpen, who have a 6th worst 4.45 SIERA over the past 30 days.

With a 27% K rate and 3.21 xFIP through April, it looked as though Jose Quintana had returned to ace form in 2019. It proved to be a fluke, as Quintana has struggled to a 4.93 xFIP, 8.6% K-BB and a .341 xwOBA allowed since May 1st. He’s been even worse of late, with a 4.87 xFIP, 5.21 SIERA, .381 xwOBA allowed and 9% K-BB over the past 30 days. Since May 1st Quintana has allowed a .345 xwOBA vs. RHP compared to a .329 xwOBA vs. LHB, so hitters from both sides of the plate are in play for the Pirates. Jose Osuna (.384 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Josh Bell (.373), Bryan Reynolds (.363), Kevin Newman (.341) and Starling Marte (.332) are all great options who will likely hit in the top half of the order for the Pirates. Osuna has been their hottest hitter over the past 30 days with a .464 xwOBA, followed by catcher Jacob Stallings with a .432 mark. Overall, the Pirates have quietly been one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the past 30 days with a 3rd ranked .343 xwOBA. The Pirates currently have an implied total of just 4.31, which feels too low and will hopefully help them fly under the radar in this matchup.