Kevin Pillar Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Playing in hitter friendly Petco Park against a solid pitcher in Joey Lucchesi, the Giants have just a 3.68 implied total and are a dart-throw stack option on a slate full of more obvious options. Fortunately, they will be very low-owned and are probably in a better spot than what their total shows. Lucchesi has been a solid pitcher this year, but he has struggled a bit over the past 30 days with a 5.57 ERA, 4.97 SIERA and just a 9.9% K-BB. Lucchesi has always been more vulnerable vs. righties, as he has a .329 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB compared to a .247 xwOBA vs. LHB since 2018. Tonight the first 6 batters in the Giants’ lineup project to be righties. The Giants have really struggled this year at the plate but have begun to turn it around with a 6th best 110 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Donavan Solano (.396 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Tyler Austin (.361), Kevin Pillar (.326) are all good options. Buster Posey (.290) has struggled this year but is still a career 150 wRC+ hitter vs. LHP. Austin Slater is another good option, projected to bat 2nd with a career 100 wRC+ vs. LHP and a 142 wRC+ in 60 PA this year. Giants batters are also extremely cheap; all their hitters are $4k or less on Draftkings besides Mike Yastrzemski. If you’re looking to get super contrarian on this slate, the Giants could be a good shot in a GPP.

Stacking against Matt Moore is never a bad idea in DFS. In 2018, Moore had a 6.79 ERA, 5.06 xFIP, .365 xwOBA and 1.68 HR/9 over 102 innings in 2018. The Blue Jays will stack their lineup with 9 RHB vs. Moore this afternoon in Toronto, many of these guys can be had at an affordable price. Danny Jansen is arguably the best catcher play on the board today, leading off and priced at $3.8k on DK. Brandon Drury remains cheap at $3.5k and will be in the 2 spot. Randall Grichuk (.360 xwOBA vs. LHP in 2018) has nice upside at an affordable price of $4.3k. Lourdes Gurriel, Kevin Pillar and Freddy Galvis are lineup-filling options towards the bottom of the order than can be had for under $4k.

Mike Leake has a .448 xwOBA that's somehow just second worst on the board (Chris Tillman) with a 92.9 mph aEV (worst), 12.1% Barrels/BBE, and 53.8% 95+ mph EV (worst) combined with a 14.9 K%. Even worse, he hasn't exceeded a 45 GB% since his first start. The Toronto lineup has just crept above five implied runs this afternoon, making them the sixth team above that mark tonight, but offering a great opportunity if Ownership projections suggest they'll be a forgotten team. Kevin Pillar (66 wRC+, .168 ISO) is the only batter among the first seven in the order below a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. While they don't have a lot of left-handed batters and Leake has a 50 point platoon split by xwOBA, RHBs still have .324 xwOBA and 35.2 Hard% against him since last year. Curtis Granderson, Josh Donaldson, Teoscar Hernandez and Justin Smoak are all above a 130 wRC+ and .250 ISO against RHP over the last calendar years.

Chris Sale (36.3 K%, 15.6 SwStr%) is obvious top arm on a four game slate (though Dylan Bundy may be closer than some think) and faces a mostly unimposing Toronto lineup tonight. He's struck out at least eight in four of his five starts, but just completed seven innings for the first time last time out. He's averaged nearly seven innings per start over the last two calendar years (6.8), far more than any pitcher on the slate and that combination (innings and strikeouts) is why players are paying an exorbitant price for him ($13K on DK) on a four game slate. His .225 xwOBA this season is 66 points below the next lowest pitcher (Bundy .291). Player considering something crazy, which can sometimes make sense on a small slate, have to consider that the three most useful right-handed bats (Justin Smoak, Steve Pearce and Kevin Pillar all above a 115 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs LHP since last season) are not even that steeply discounted, all costing at least $3K on either site. Sale has held RHBs to a .263 wOBA (.250 xwOBA) since last season.

Eric Skoglund had a 16.7 K-BB% in 100 AAA innings last year and is a marginally ranked prospect in a weak Kansas City system. The now 25 year-old has walked just one fewer than he’s struck out in 22.2 major league innings so far and has allowed a lot of hard contact (36 Hard%) in the air (36.5 GB%) with just a 6.4 SwStr%. Even without Donaldson, the Blue Jays still have some bats that mash LHP in Justin Smoak (161 wRC+, .286 ISO since 2017), Steve Pearce (107 wRC+, .265 ISO) and don't sleep on Kevin Pillar (141 wRC+, .221 ISO). Though the latter has an xwOBA 50 points below his actual one against southpaws due to a .362 BABIP, it's still an above average .334. Teoscar Hernandez costs $2.7K or less on either site and has hit at every level of the minors. He has a 115 wRC+ and .264 ISO in 212 major league plate appearances. The Blue Jays have a 5.34 implied run line that is more than a half run higher than the next best team.

Kevin's most recent forecast has some concern of a delay, but less so for a PPD, which is really what players are worried about for this game in Texas...hitters! Matt Moore brings with him from San Francisco some of the worst Statcast numbers on the board. His .358 wOBA was completely confirmed by a .352 xwOBA, including an 88.4 mph aEV, 8.5% Barrels/BBE and 38% 95+ mph EV that are all worst on the board for 2017. That and a career 38.3 GB% are unlikely to do him any favors in Texas. A career and 2017 reverse platoon split matter nothing here because the Blue Jays have stacked the lineup entirely right-handed against him. RHBs had a .326 wOBA and .343 xwOBA against him last year with a 35.1 Hard%, the lower actual wOBA likely a function of a friendly home park, which means we'd expect to see something potentially worse than his xwOBA in Texas. At the top of the lineup, Josh Donaldson (176 wRC+, .393 ISO) and Justin Smoak (165 wRC+, 231 ISO) have destroyed LHP since last season, as have Kendrys Morales (164 wRC+, .231 ISO, 42 Hard%), Kevin Pillar (144 wRC+, .219 ISO) and Devon Travis (168 wRC+, .290 ISO) near the bottom, the latter with only 35 PAs. Steve Pearce has a stronger career track record, but just a 94 wRC+ and .226 ISO vs southpaws since last season. Yangervis Solarte, Russell Martin, and Randal Grichuk are probably all better their a sub-75 wRC+ against LHP.

On the surface, Wade Miley seems to have righted the ship a bit recently, allowing no more than three earned runs in any of his six previous starts while eclipsing five or more strikeouts in all but two of those aforementioned outings. Although Miley has seen some good results lately, his peripheral stats certainly fail to follow suit. Tonight, Miley is set to face off with a Toronto Blue Jays squad that has the ability to get extremely right-handed in the right matchups, evidenced by Ryan Goins being the only left-handed batters to crack the Boston lineup this evening. Miley's strikeout rate to right-handed batters is down to 19.0%, a substantial decrease from his early season totals, while his walk rate has ballooned to 12.2% over that same time period. Miley's 49.2% groundball rate against righties is slightly above-average but is still not enough to deter us utilizing Blue Jays hitters considering he is also allowing a 24.2% line drive rate and surrendering hard contact 32.6% of the time. With that said, this Blue Jays offense has the chance to become one of the more overlooked stacks on Saturday's main slate since they don't really provide many usable one-off power options throughout their order. Considering the reduced ownership Toronto bats are expected to demand, it certainly wouldn't be a horrible idea to try to get creative with Blue Jays stacks to better differentiate from the masses in tournaments. Based solely on statistics, Justin Smoak (193 wRC+, .460 wOBA, .273 ISO vs LHP), Kendrys Morales (159 wRC+, .411 wOBA, .229 ISO vs LHP), and Josh Donaldson (129 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .290 ISO vs LHP) stand out as the primary plays from this Blue Jays order, while Kevin Pillar (139 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .215 ISO vs LHP) and Steve Pearce (.247 ISO vs LHP) should be considered more as secondary options and a clear tier below the previously mentioned sluggers and are better utilized as part of a Toronto stack in tournaments or as contrarian one-offs given their decent individual upside at the plate against southpaws.