Leonys Martin Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

By most metrics, Domingo German has been a very solid pitcher this year as he has a 3.66 ERA / 3.75 xFIP / 3.82 SIERA with a 19.8% K-BB. German does allow a good amount of loud contact though with an 88.7 aEV on the year. Over the past month, German has struggled with a .352 xwOBA allowed and an aEV of 90.1 MPH. He has a .394 xwOBACON on the year which goes to show that hitters can do some damage against him if they’re able to put the ball in play. Francisco Lindor (125 wRC+, .235 ISO vs. RHP over last calendar year), Carlos Santana (119 wRC+, .190 ISO), Oscar Mercado (105 wRC+, .145 ISO), Jose Ramirez (105 wRC+, .192 ISO), and Jason Kipnis (88 wRC+, .162 ISO) are all decent options that are in the top-5 of the Cleveland order tonight. Mercado, Kipnis and Ramirez are all available under $3.6k on Draftkings. Lindor has been on fire with an xwOBA of .476 over the past 10 days and will leadoff but is not cheap at $5.4k. Leonys Martin, Tyler Naquin and Jake Bauers are $3.2k or less at the bottom of the Indians’ order and are just dart-throw options as they have largely struggled so far in 2019. The Indians have a 4.40 implied line versus German and the Yankees tonight.

Cleveland will face Dylan Bundy at home tonight in what looks to be a great matchup. Bundy has had a rough year so far with a 5.31 ERA / 5.14 xFIP and an ugly 47.8% FB rate. He’s also allowing a career high .336 xwOBA, and his average fastball velocity dipped under 90MPH in his last start (91.6 MPH average in 2018). Bundy has very wide platoon splits (.294 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB, .359 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB since 2018) and projects to face seven lefties in Cleveland’s order tonight. Francisco Lindor (.370 xwOBA since 2018 vs. RHP), Jose Ramirez (.368), Leonys Martin (.365), Carlos Santana (.343), Jason Kipnis (.340) and Jake Bauers (.314) are all good left-handed options in the Indians’ projected lineup. Carlos Gonzalez (.305) hasn’t hit RHP as well as he used to but projects to hit 4th and is just $3.3k on Draftkings. Jason Kipnis is another bargain, projected to hit 2nd at just $3.3k as well. Francisco Lindor has been the Indians’ hottest hitter with a .402 xwOBA over the past 10 days, Kipnis follows close behind with a .388 mark. The Indians have a 5.19 implied total Friday night.

The Tigers have suddenly shot up the board and now have a top five implied run line (5.34) in Kansas City tonight. The Royals are throwing a bullpen game and that bullpen is terrible (4.83 FIP, 3.7 K-BB% last 30 days). Heath Fillmyer has been used mostly out of the pen for the Royals (multiple innings each time) and has a -1.5 K-BB% in 15.2 innings, while not being that much more impressive in 13 AAA starts (6.2 K-BB%). The Tigers have just three competent bats against RHP over the last calendar year: Leonys Martin (108 wRC+, .159 ISO), Nick Castellanos (115 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Jeimer Candelario (109 wRC+, .188 ISO). All three are in the top half of the order at a low cost on FanDuel. Nobody else in the lineup is above an 80 wRC+ or .150 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year.

At 10.9%, Tyler Mahle has allowed the highest rate of barreled balls per BBE. He throws lots of fastballs (67%) and has some HR problems, though he hasn't allowed one in four games. Nine of his 13 HRs surrendered have gone to LHBs. The Tigers don't have many weapons from the left-side and only a 4.04 implied run line, which is actually good for the middle of the board this afternoon, but all three in the lineup would seem solid values against a pitcher who has a career .392 wOBA (.379 xwOBA) and 45.5 Hard% against batters from that side of the plate. Leonys Martin and Jeimer Candelario have the exact same numbers against RHP over the last calendar year (117 wRC+, .181 ISO). Niko Goodrum (97 wRC+, .206 ISO) is the third lefty in the lineup.

The Tigers and Twins both have implied run lines within 0.08 points of 4.5 implied runs each with two struggling pitchers on the mound. Michael Fullmer did throw seven one-run innings with seven strikeouts against the Indians last time out, but had allowed nine runs in 9.1 innings in his previous two outings and now has just a 20% strikeout rate both on the season and over the last month. Statcast sees his xwOBA 31 points above his actual .302 wOBA against LHBs since last season. Eduardo Escobar (131 wRC+, .289 ISO) and Eddie Rosario (153 wRC+, .278 ISO) have been destroying RHP over the last calendar year. Logan Morrison (113 wRC+, .235 ISO) and Brian Dozier (110 wRC+, .203 ISO) have handled them well as well. Lance Lynn is also coming off his best start of the season, striking out seven and walking just two Angels through six four-hit, one-run innings. He allowed just a run in his previous start too, but with five walks. He still has a 14.2 BB% on the season, though both his walk (10.8%) and strikeout (21.8%) rates have decreased over his last seven starts. Lynn has major platoon issues. LHBs have a .355 wOBA (.364 xwOBA) against him since last season. Considering the control issues, Leonys Martin (114 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a great bet to reach base and score a run today. He has a 188 wRC+ and 56.3 Hard% over the last week.

The Tigers will go with their standard lineup at least through the first half of tonight's lineup. That still should not present much of a problem to Domingo German, as only three batters (Jeimer Candelario, Nick Castellanos and Leonys Martin) exceed and 85 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. All three plus Niko Goodrum exceed a .190 ISO, but none are above .210 and nobody else in the lineup is above a .150 ISO against RHP over that span. German has had nearly a week off since throwing a career high 104 pitches. His 11.4 BB% and the only positive run environment in play are marks against him, but he has the highest strikeout rate on the board over the last month, in which he's been starting (26.7%). The next highest mark over that span is Clayton Richard's 21.2%. He also has the lowest aEV on the board tonight (85.9 mph). No other pitcher is below 88 mph. If players are still thinking of rostering Detroit bats, consider that the majority of the Yankee pen is intact, having worked just a single inning behind Luis Severino in the opener today.

Batters from either side of the plate have a 40+ Hard% against Nick Tropeano in his return from Tommy John surgery this year. RHBs have a .370 xwOBA 57 points above their actual mark. Detroit does not strike out a lot and the park is a positive run environment. They have a 4.32 implied run line that's in the middle of the board without a batter above $4K on either site. This may be a sneaky, salary saving mini-stack, though only three or four batters have been competent or better against RHP over the last calendar year: Nick Castellanos (118 wRC+, .207 ISO), Jeimer Candelario (133 wRC+, .195 ISO), Leonys Martin (102 wRC+, .177 ISO) and John Hicks (95 wRC+, .163 ISO).